Stick to the Netflix hun.
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Be great if after delivering a United ireland, abortion and gay marriage the DUP were destroyed at the polls to top it off
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All valid points, but I just can’t see it. Corbyn is, rightly or wrongly, perceived as a zealot and a shadow man. He’s perceived as anti business in a nation of small businesses, anti banking in a nation where large donors control the narrative, perceived as untrustworthy for whatever reason, but most importantly, perceived as a ruthless fanatic who burns his enemies, and surrounds himself with like minded acolytes. This may have been mainstream media propaganda, but it is what it is.
I think the centre left will shift to the libdems, and he will lose some of the bitter old bigots of the North to the brexit party.
The issue here, the only issue, is whether the tories will get an overall majority.
Labour have only been elected and electable in recent times when they moved to the centre ground, which is currently wide open.
What may be crucial is whether the anti-brexit organisation can realise that in fact, labour’s position on brexit is actually the correct one, and push aside their own hard-lines. They were going to issue in each constituency a schematic for who to vote for, be it LD, Lab, green or indy (SNP aside) to avoid a tory hard right brexit. If they do this, and can get the message across, an overall tory majority is less likely, and we could end up voting effectively on mays deal (with dup backing) vs remain in a referendum. Either way, we are now in end game.
I think the student vote may be critical, also the 16-18 year old voting issue, which the tories will try and block, likely successfully.
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The kids and foreigner amendments were dismissed by the Deputy Speaker Lindsay Hoyle (Lab) who just happens to be running to succeed Mr Bercow. Adding them would have delayed the election by months.
The election will be won on some key marginals. There are a lot of seats on both sides which have very small majorities. There will be a lot of targeted campaigning leveraging big data. Just like in 2016.
A lot can happen in five weeks though. I wouldn’t be betting the house on the Tories yet.
It’s hard to call. You just get the feeling that the right wing set have a huge head start with their Cambridge analytica type propaganda.
The remainers would want to heve been mobilising this big time, and their pockets are nowhere near as deep.
I think there’s huge hidden antipathy towards Boris, I think the working class properly despise him, I think things that have been brushed aside in the MSM like his family situation are very much alive in the minds of both the working class and middle England. I think the only thing you can be certain of is that things look promising for the Lib Dems. I have €20 on a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition @33/1.
I think Brits are just sick to fucking death of Brexit and talking about Brexit, they just want it done. They will see Boris as having “achieved” a path to this and will vote for him. The Brexit with a deal scenario will also mean basically nothing changes for them.
Corbyn has made a show of himself over Brexit, flip flopping all over the shop and allowed the Lib Dem’s to steal a march on him. The Lib Dem’s are a nothing party then. Not quite labour, not quite Tory, and standing for nothing. Between the two of them they’ll canabalise each other’s votes and the good old first past the post system will carry the Tories to a decent majority on a small majority of votes.
The major risk to that is that Boris says or does something mental, but he seems to be pretty Teflon in that regard so far.
The other danger is Farages Brexit means Brexit party will eat into the Tories, but I think Johnson has done enough to hold the far right flank of the conservative vote. If perhaps not the extreme far right vote.
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If Labour won it, they wouldn’t have the first fucking idea what to do with it.
Corbyn knows exactly what he’d do, that’s why they hate him.
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Leave the EU and begin re-nationalising businesses?
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John Curtice predicts over 100 non-Tory or Labour seats
That doesn’t necessarily mean Johnson won’t get a majority
What the Brexit party do will be fascinating
Farage and Cummings hate each other, and if Johnson wins, that’s pretty much the end of Farage
Either way I expect the Brexit party to end up on 0 seats
Looking at individual seats, it only makes sense for the Tories to stand aside for a Brexit candidate in places where neither have a hope anyway
It isn’t the Brexit Party who stand to take midlands and northern marginals off Labour, it’s the Tories
Only the Tories stand to gain from a formal or informal alliance
As regards NI, I think the SDLP have a great chance of taking back Belfast South from the DUP and Foyle from SF
Fermanagh/South Tyrone will be a dogfight as always and any apathy in the SF vote could cost them, a lot depends on who the Unionist candidate is
The UUP could take at least one seat, probably South Antrim, and the DUP are under huge threat in Belfast East and Belfast North
Could end up with 6 DUP 5 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, Lady Hermon and possibly that cunt Elliott in F/ST
This Grenfell report is certainly picking up steam online. Alot of anger at the blame being put on the Fire Brigade. The Tories will want to put this to bed before the anger turns on Boris.
The Tories are using the hashtag #BritainDeservesBetter on Twitter 
To paraphrase a fictional nuclear power plant owner, I’m beginning to think Dominic Cummings may not be the brilliant tactician we thought he was
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It’s a very bad idea to blame first responders, especially first responders who faced swingeing cuts
The fire brigade didn’t inflict those swingeing cuts on themselves, Johnson did
Grenfell was a stomach churning symbol of what Tory ideology really is and does
When the public inquiry was announced, the local community were up in arms at the way it was being run and the people who were running it
Scapegoating the fire brigade will only reinforce a cover up in the public mind
Amber Rudd is standing down
The quality of candidates fielded by the Tories at this election is going to be very low
The quality of their front benchers is through the floor
This could prove to be a problem for them
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I think Swinson could prove to be a loose cannon and big hindrance for the Lib Dems in this election
She comes across as unreasonable and not particularly likeable
I do hate to bring the likeability factor into it, but it follows on from her unreasonableness
She also comes across as a yellow Tory
And she’s Scottish
I think she’s much inferior to the lovely Layla Moran, who is consistently impressive and very attractive in a bookish sort of way
I think there’s a big chance Swinson loses her seat
From the Morning Ireland report this morning it sounded like this report was only focused on the night itself and the direct response etc. There is a second report to come looking at broader causes/recommendations etc.
She is a yellow Tory. She’s said that Corbyn is a bigger threat than Brexit, which is just repeating the position of The City. Her strategy is to target middle-England Tory votes who are either Remainer or else turned off by Boris. That may or may not work.
She’s a wee bit too preachy.
She is, and the English voters she’s after won’t like her accent. She needs to smile a lot, seem reasonable, and do as many puff pieces as possible. Send chukka out to do the hard yards.
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