This chap has been getting a lot of attention in recent days
As a poster called Dr Mibbles on the UK Polling Report blog he called 2017 spot on and predicted Labour would win Canterbury at odds of 25/1
He could be wrong but he raises some very interesting points about potential polling issues
Swinson’s attempt distance to herself from Labour was an attempt to win over potential Tory switchers - it could still pay dividends in certain Tory/Lib Dem marginals
Labour’s attempt to stay neutral on Brexit could also still pay dividends - they’ve put Angela Rayner front and central in recent days and she has been very impressive - Rayner says she would vote for a Labour Brexit deal - but not a Tory one
There have been some on the ground “standings down” in certain constituencies - ie. Lib Dems in Canterbury which I think Labour will hold - but there are seven or eight London seats where the Tories could nick the seat on a split vote
I think the online tactical vote thing can only make a small difference and that was all it ever had a chance of doing - voters in general are not educated on this sort of thing
If Labour and Lib Dems officially stood down for the other in certain seats - it risked turning away as many voters elsewhere
Like, if your a Tory remainer, if the Lib Dems are making pacts with Labour, that could turn these soft Tories off the Lib Dems in general
If there was a Labour/Lib Dem pact, it risks Labour leavers deserting en masse
You just have to hope that there is stuff going on on the ground in these potential split vote constituencies that is pushing voters towards the viable challenger to the Tories
A large Tory majority could bring no deal into view at the end of 2020
The more hopeful view of a large Tory majority would be that Johnson might have enough to ditch the ERG and go with as soft a Brexit as possible ie. ditch principles he never had - but experience says that’s probably not what will happen - because the Tories in general are now a radical deregulating “Britannia Unchained” cult
If Johnson gets a small majority of say 20 or less, the withdrawal agreement would still go through, but lead to long term paralysis as the ERG would then start kicking up again in 2020 demanding as hard a Brexit as possible - then we get into the scenario of interminable extensions to the transition period
If Johnson gets 312-323ish seats, the DUP may well prop up the Tories again in government, but where does that leave his withdrawal agreement, dead almost certainly, and even more paralysis than before
That’s still better than Brexit
If Johnson is below 312 seats and Corbyn is PM, and this is still possible, Brexit could well be dead
Some interesting thoughts though I’d disagree with parts. But a genuine question, if Johnson gets 319 seats and brings on board 9 DUP MPs who do you see stopping a hard Brexit on January 31st?
The question, is can he bring them on board at all, because how on earth can the DUP now accept the withdrawal agreement after all they’ve said - and they aren’t wrong in what they’ve said about it
Potential total gridlock there, maybe even requiring another election in February/March
But how would another extension for January 31st then get passed
Matt Hancock is an utter creep
Opinium are showing a three point swing to Labour but they are and have always been a big outlier in terms of the margin for the Tories - they still have it at 45-33 (their previous one was 46-31)
The poll of polls in 2017 had the final gap at 7.6% - the real gap was 2.3%
It’s the gap that will decide whether there’s a majority - 43-40 and it’s probably a hung parliament
43-38 and it’s a likely Tory majority I’d say, unless the tactical voting is incredibly effective
Polling companies tend to “herd” - they are generally afraid of being an outlier because they could end up with egg on their face
And if it isn’t the UK crashes out. Enough Labour MPs in the north would vote for Johnsons WA if he brought it forward, but the DUP demand for forming a government with him will be that its ditched, and I don’t think the Tories would have any issues doing just that. They will think they have delivered on their promise to leave, and they have 5 years to overcome the worst effects before the next election.
A lot of the Labour leave MPs are standing down or will likely lose their seat this time
If Johnson needs the DUP, that means the majority is 9 or under - and there’s no way he’ll last five years, through natural wastage alone, especially in a no deal scenario
I think if Johnson falls under 10 short of a majority we’re back to a situation where parliament takes control again to avoid no deal at the end of January - and maybe another election, because how else can the gridlock then be broken
Margin of.error +- 5% on surveys. Might as well throw them all up in the air and see which one lands face up. It will all come down to the marginals. The result usually does reflect the mood of the people and there are extremes on all sides so wouldn’t be surprised with a hung parliament. I reckon it will be a narrow Tory majority and with it more questions of legitimacy.
If you look at the 2017 results from the midlands and northern marginals, it’s hard to see how Labour hang onto many of them - a small swing will take a lot of them away
But the Brexit Party vote could scupper the Tories - in 2017 UKIP completely collapsed and there was no Brexit Party - if the Brexit Party were to pull in votes like UKIP did in 2015, that would be terrible for the Tories
Like, say in Hartlepool, yer man Tice will get a strong vote, but probably not enough to win - but probably enough to mean the Tory doesn’t win either, handing it to Labour on the split vote
Because the Brexit Party are only standing in 274 seats, their real vote could be being underplayed, and that simultaneously means the real Tory vote could be overplayed
I’m starting to get the feeling that Labour could be in contention in southern towns - places like Milton Keynes and Northampton, which are Tory held but by very narrow majorities
The soundings from Portsmouth South are seemingly very good for Labour - polls showing an increased majority
If that’s an indication, the Tories could struggle more than previously thought in these southern towns/small cities
Southampton Itchen could go red too and I have Eastleigh down as a Lib Dem gain
Hastings could be in play - Amber Rudd only won by 300 last time and the Tory candidate there this time has made a complete show of herself
One of the main contenders to be the next Labour leader is a leave MP. There is no way northern Labour MPs, who will just about hang onto their seats this time, would agree to block Brexit again by voting against Johnsons WA and face the electorate in 3 months time.
As you say yourself it’s hard to see how a further extension could be agreed in a Johnson led minority government, which means Brexit day is January 31st. You also have to remember there will be a new speaker who is highly unlikely to be as effective as Bercow was in facilitating the remain cause.
Has your view changed in the last few days @Sidney ?
How many seats do you think the parties will win?
There’s a massive difference between a Labour leave and a Tory leave
Voting for a Johnson withdrawal agreement is voting for giving carte blanche for a Tory Brexit, which is a radical far right, deregulating, NHS-busting, asset stripping project
A Labour leave would not be
If Johnson gets 312-322, he will find it very difficult to get any deal through, how would he even form a government, I don’t think he could, and I think there would be enough MPs to block no deal again
Labour could even go into another election in the spring with a new leader and win
Nothing is inevitable here, everything is up in the air which is why it is so fascinating
Call it Sid. I’m saying a Tory majority
It’s beginning to change
Conventional wisdom says Tories will still do enough - but conventional wisdom rarely works out, and trends tend to overshoot in elections
The last few days have carried a distinct air of 2017, you can feel it, the Tories’ public behaviour shows distinct signs of panic
Last week I said Tories 359 Labour 199 Lib Dem 22 SNP 45
I’ll have to have another look at that I think
Is it changing though? The polls are narrowing for sure but I’m not sure that a few tweets or strops in either direction make much difference at this stage.
Did this out last week
A good few of these predictions will be changing when I look at it again I think
1 ALDERSHOT – SAFE TORY
2 ALDRIDGE-BROWNHILLS – SAFE TORY
3 ALTRINCHAM AND SALE WEST – SAFE TORY (GRAHAM BRADY)
4 AMBER VALLEY – SAFE TORY
5 ARUNDEL AND SOUTH DOWNS – SAFE TORY
6 ASHFIELD – TORY GAIN
7 ASHFORD - SAFE TORY
8 ASHTON UNDER LYNE – SAHOULD BE SAFE LABOUR (ANGELA RAYNER)
9 AYLESBURY – SAFE TORY
10 BANBURY – SAFE TORY
TORY 9 LABOUR 1
11 BARKING - SAFE LABOUR
12 BARNSLEY CENTRAL – SHOULD BE SAFE LABOUR (DAN JARVIS)
13 BARNSLEY EAST – SHOULD BE LABOUR HOLD (14K MAJORITY)
14 BARROW AND FURNESS – TORY GAIN (LESS THAN 1K LAB MAJORITY)
15 BASILDON AND BILLERICAY – SAFE TORY
16 BASINGSTOKE – SAFE TORY
17 BASSETLAW – LIKELY TORY GAIN (5K LAB MAJORITY)
18 BATH – LIKELY LIB DEM HOLD
19 BATLEY AND SPEN – THINK LABOUR WILL HOLD
20 BATTERSEA – TORY GAIN ON SPLIT LAB/LIB DEM VOTE
TORY 14 LAB 5 LIB DEM 1
21 BEACONSFIELD – TORY (DOMINIC GRIEVE TO LOSE)
22 BECKENHAM – SAFE TORY
23 BEDFORD – TORY GAIN FROM LAB (LESS THAN 1 K MAJORITY)
24 BERMONDSEY AND OLD SOUTHWARK – THINK LABOUR MIGHT HOLD (NEIL COYLE)
25 BERWICK ON TWEED – SAFE TORY
26 BETHNAL GREEN AND BOW – SAFE LABOUR
27 BEVERLY AND HOLDERNESS – SAFE TORY
28 BEXHILL AND BATTLE – SAFE TORY
29 BEXLEYHEATH AND CRAYFORD – SAFE TORY
30 BIRKENHEAD – SHOULD BE SAFE LABOUR
TORY 21 LAB 8 LIB DEM 1
31 BIRMINGHAM EDGBASTON – LABOUR SHOULD HOLD BUT VULNERABLE (7K MAJORITY OVER TORIES)
32 BIRMINGHAM ERDINGTON – LABOUR SHOULD HOLD BUT POSSIBLY VULNERABLE (7K MAJORITY – JACK DROMEY)
33 BIRMINGHAM HALL GREEN – CERTAIN LABOUR
34 BIRMINGHAM HODGE HILL – CERTAIN LABOUR
35 BIRMINGHAM LADYWOOD – SAFE LABOUR
36 BIRMINGHAM NORTHFIELD – VULNERABLE LABOUR
37 BIRMINGHAM PERRY BARR – SAFE LABOUR
38 BIRMINGHAM SELLY OAK – LABOUR SHOULD HOLD
39 BIRMINGHAM YARDLEY – SAFE LABOUR
40 BISHOP AUCKLAND – TORY GAIN
TORY 22 LABOUR 17 LIB DEM 1
41 BLACKBURN – LABOUR HOLD
42 BLACKLEY AND BROUGHTON LABOUR HOLD (GRAHAM STRINGER)
43 BLACKPOOL NORTH AND CLEVELEYS – TORY MARGINAL HOLD
44 BLACKPOOL SOUTH – TORY GAIN FROM LAB
45 BLAYDON – LABOUR HOLD
46 BLYTH VALLEY – THINK LABOUR WILL HOLD BUT NOT CERTAIN
47 BOGNOR REGIS AND LITTLEHAMPTON – SAFE TORY
48 BOLSOVER – THINK TORIES WILL GAIN AND UNSEAT DENNIS SKINNER
49 BOLTON NORTH EAST – THINK TORIES MIGHT GAIN FROM LAB
50 BOLTON SOUTH EAST – LABOUR HOLD
TORY 27 LABOUR 22 LIB DEM 1
51 BOLTON WEST – TORY MARGINAL HOLD
52 BOOTLE – SAFE LABOUR
53 BOSTON AND SKEGNESS SAFE TORY
54 BOSWORTH – SAFE TORY
55 BOURNEMOUTH EAST – TORY HOLD
56 – BOURNEMOUTH WEST – TORY HOLD
57 – BRACKNELL – TORY HOLD
58 – BRADFORD EAST – SAFE LABOUR
59 – BRADFORD SOUTH – LABOUR SHOULD HOLD BUT NOT CERTAIN
60 BRADFORD WEST – SAFE LABOUR
TORY 33 LABOUR 26 LIB DEM 1
61 BRAINTREE – SAFE TORY
62 BRENT CENTRAL – SAFE LABOUR
63 BRENT NORTH – SAFE LABOUR
64 BRENTFORD AND ISLEWORTH – SLIGHT RISK OF SPLIT VOTE BUT LABOUR SHOULD HOLD
65 BRENTWOOD AND ONGAR – SAFE TORY
66 BRIDGWATER AND WEST SOMERSET – SAFE TORY
67 BRIGG AND GOOLE – SAFE TORY
68 BRIGHTON KEMPTOWN – LABOUR MARGINAL (10K MAJORITY GAINED IN 2017) – THINK LAB WILL HOLD
69 BRIGHTON PAVILION – SAFE GREEN
70 BRISTOL EAST – SAFE-ISH LABOUR
TORY 37 LABOUR 31 LIB DEM 1 GREEN 1
71 BRISTOL NORTH WEST – KEY LABOUR MARGINAL – THEY MIGHT JUST HOLD
72 BRISTOL SOUTH – SAFE LABOUR
73 BRISTOL WEST – VERY SAFE LABOUR
74 BROADLAND – SAFE TORY
75 BROMLEY AND CHISLEHURST – SAFE TORY
76 BROMSGROVE – SAFE TORY (SAJID JAVID)
77 BROXBOURNE – SAFE TORY
78 BROXTOWE – THINK THE TORIES WILL UNSEAT ANNA SOUBRY
79 BUCKINGHAM – SAFE TORY – JOHN BERCOW’S OLD SEAT
80 BURNLEY – LABOUR MIGHT JUST HOLD
TORY 43 LABOUR 35 LIB DEM 1 GREEN 1
81 – BURTON SAFE TORY
82 BURY NORTH – KEY LABOUR MARGINAL – THINK TORIES COULD TAKE IT
83 BURY SOUTH – KEY LABOUR MARGINAL – MAYBE LABOUR?
84 BURY ST EDMONDS – SAFE TORY
85 CALDER VALLEY – TORY V. MARGINAL – BUT HARD TO SEE TORIES NOT RETAIN
86 CAMBERWELL AND PECKHAM – V SAFE LABOUR
87 CAMBORNE AND REDRUTH – SOUTH WEST TORY MARGINAL FROM LAB – LIB DEMS MAY CHALLENGE – BUT TORIES SHOULD HOLD
88 CAMBRIDGE – THINK LIB DEMS MAY DEFEAT LABOUR (LOSS)
89 CANNOCK CHASE – SAFE TORY
90 CANTERBURY – THINK LAB MIGHT HOLD THIS KEY MARGINAL
TORY 49 LAB 38 LIB DEM 2 GREEN 1
91 CARLISLE – TORY HOLD
92 CARSHALTON AND WALLINGTON – LIB DEM MARGINAL HOLD
93 CASTLE POINT – SAFE TORY HOLD
94 CENTRAL DEVON SAFE TORY
95 CENTRAL SUFFOK AND NORTH IPSWICH – SAFE TORY
96 CHARNWOOD – SAFE TORY
97 CHATHAM AND AYLESFORD – SAFE TORY
98 CHEADLE – TORY HELD MARGINAL NEAR MANCHESTER – THINK LIB DEMS MIGHT TAKE IT FROM TORIES
99 CHELMSFORD – SAFE TORY
100 – CHELSEA AND FULHAM – SHOULD BE SAFE TORY, BUT COULD LIB DEMS SURPRISE A FEW HERE?
I thought your figure for the Tory seats looked high hence I asked.
I think the child on the hospital floor and the Tory reaction has people realising that there is more than brexit but maybe not.
@flattythehurdler is it still all brexit brexit brexit or are people starting to look at other issues and the torys as the austerity party?
Part 2
Spot the counting error
101 CHELTENHAM – TORY HELD MARGINAL, THINK LIB DEMS WILL WIN
102 CHESHAM AND AMERSHAM – SAFE TORY
103 CHESTERFIELD – LABOUR HOLD I THINK
104 CHICHESTER – SAFE TORY
105 CHINGFORD AND WOODFORD GREEN – KEY MARGINAL – MAYBE LABOUR GAIN?
106 CHIPPENHAM – SAFE TORY
107 CHIPPNG BARNET – THINK LABOUR WILL UNSEAT THERSEA VILLIERS IN V. MARGINAL SEAT
108 CHORLEY – LABOUR – SPEAKER
109 CHRISTCHURCH – SAFE TORY
110 – CITIES OF LONDON AND WESTMINSTER – TORIES VULNERABLE BUT SHOULD HOLD
TORY 62 LABOUR 42 LIB DEM 5 GREEN 1
111 CITY OF CHESTER – LABOUR HELD MARGINAL – THINK LABOUR MIGHT TAKE IT
112 CITY OF DURHAM ODDS – LABOUR I THINK
113 CLACTON – SAFE TORY
114 CLEETHORPES – SAFE TORY
115 COLCHESTER – SAFEISH TORY
116 COLNE VALLEY LIKELY TORY GAIN FROM LAB
117 CONGLETON – SAFE TORY
118 COPELAND – TORY MARGINAL THEY WILL HOLD
119 CORBY – TORY MARGINAL, WILL HOLD
120 COVENTRY NORTH EAST – SAFE LABOUR
TORY 69 LABOUR 45 LIB DEM 5 GREEN 1
121 COVENTRY NORTH WEST – LABOUR VULNERABLE, BUT MAY HOLD
122 COVENTRY SOUTH – LABOUR VULNERABLE BUT MAY HOLD
123 CRAWLEY – MARGINAL BUT V DIFFICULT TO SEE TORIES LOSE
124 CREWE AND NANTWICH – TORY GAIN FROM LAB
125 CROYDON CENTRAL – LAB HELD MARGINAL – THINK TORIES WILL WIN
126 CROYDON NORTH – SAFE LABOUR
127 CROYDON SOUTH – SAFE TORY
128 DAGENHAM AND RAINHAM – TORY GAIN FROM LAB
129 DARLINGTON - TORY GAIN FROM LAB
130 DARTFORD – SAFE TORY
TORY 76 LABOUR 48 LIB DEM 5 GREEN 1
141 DAVENTRY – SAFE TORY
142 DENTON AND REDDISH – SAFE LABOUR
143 DERBY NORTH – TORY GAIN FROM LAB
144 DERBY SOUTH – LABOUR SHOULD HOLD
145 DERBYSHIRE DALES – SAFE TORY
146 DEVIZES – SAFE TORY
147 DEWSBURY – LIKELY TORY GAIN FROM LAB
148 DON VALLEY – LIKELY TORY GAIN FROM LAB
149 - DONCASTER CENTRAL – LAB SHOULD HOLD
150 – DONCASTER NORTH – LABOUR SHOULD HOLD
TORY 82 LABOUR 52 LIB DEM 5 GREEN 1
151 DOVER – SAFE TORY
152 DUDLEY NORTH – TORY GAIN FROM LAB
153 DUDLEY SOUTH – SAFE TORY
154 DULWICH AND WEST NORWOOD – SAFE LABOUR
155 EALING CENTRAL AND ACTON – LABOUR SHOULD HOLD
156 EALING NORTH – SAFE LABOUR
157 EALING SOUTHALL – SAFE LABOUR
158 EASINGTON – LABOUR HOLD
159 EAST DEVON – INDEPENDENT – CLAIRE WRIGHT TO UPSET THE TORIES
160 EAST HAM – SAFE LABOUR
TORY 85 LABOUR 58 LIB DEM 5 GREEN 1 IND 1
161 EAST HAMPSHIRE – SAFE TORY
162 EAST SURREY – TORY
163 EAST WORTHING AND SHOREHAM – TORY
164 EAST YORKSHIRE – SAFE TORY
165 – EASTBOURNE – LIB DEM MARGINAL – MIGHT HOLD
166 – EASTLEIGH – POSSIBLE LIB DEM GAIN FROM TORIES
167 – EDDISBURY – TORY
168 – EDMONTON – SAFE LABOUR
169 – ELLESMERE PORT AND NESTON – LABOUR SHOULD HOLD
170 – ELMET AND ROTHWELL – TORY
TORY 91 LABOUR 60 LIB DEM 7 GREEN 1 IND 1
171 ELTHAM – MARGINAL LABOUR SEAT – LABOUR TO HOLD, JUST
172 – ENFIELD NORTH – LAB TO JUST HOLD A MARGINAL
173 – ENFIELD SOUTHGATE - LABOUR TO JUST HOLD A MARGINAL
174 – EPPING FOREST – SAFE TORY
175 – EPSOM AND EWELL – SHOULD BE SAFE TORY, BUT COULD LIB DEMS SURPRISE CHRIS GRAYLING?
176 – EREWASH – TORIES WILL HOLD THIS DERBYSHIRE MARGINAL
177 – ERITH AND THAMESMEAD – LABOUR SHOULD HOLD
178 – ESHER AND WALTON – DOMINIC RAAB – TORIES WILL JUST HOLD
179 – EXETER – LABOUR WILL HOLD
180 – FAREHAM – SAFE TORY
TORY 96 LABOUR 65 LIB DEM 7 GREEN 1 IND 1
181 – FAVERSHAM AND MID-KENT – SAFE TORY
182 – FELTHAM AND HESTON – SAFE LABOUR
183 – FILTON AND BRADLEY STOKE – TORIES WILL HOLD
184 – FINCHLEY AND GOLDERS GREEN – TORY HOLD
185 – FOLKESTONE AND HYTHE – SAFE TORY
186 – FOREST OF DEAN – SAFE TORY
187 – FYLDE – SAFE TORY
188 – GAINSBOROUGH – SAFE TORY
189 – GARSTON AND HALEWOOD – SAFE LABOUR
190 - GATESHEAD – SAFE LABOUR
TORY 103 LABOUR 68 LIB DEM 7 GREEN 1 IND 1
191 – GEDLING – LABOUR MARGINAL – TORY GAIN
192 – GILLINGHAM AND RAINHAM – SAFE TORY
193 – GLOUCESTER – TORY HOLD
194 – GOSPORT – SAFE TORY
195 – GRAANTHAM AND STAMFORD – SAFE TORY
196 – GRAVESHAM – SAFE TORY
197 – GREAT GRIMSBY – TORY GAIN
198 – GREAT YARMOUTH – SAFE TORY
199 – GREENWICH AND WOOLWICH – SAFE LABOUR
200 – GUILDFORD – LIB DEMS TO GAIN FROM TORIES