Whistleblower complaint is public
And it’s bad for Trump, and also Giuliani and Barr
All of this just means he’ll reach the 270 in even quicker time than he did in 2016. The Democrats and their friends in the fake news media have shown they have no interest in America prospering or being governed, only in re-running an election they lost in 2016.
It’s all fake, mate
Trump is as pure as snow
Agreed, this will harden his base even more. They need 20 out of 53 republican senators to vote to impeach Trump. Not going to happen. Democrats will have thrown the kithen sink at him and the attention will then fall on Biden. The democrats are using Biden as a battering ram for Warren who could yet pull it off. Smart money is on Trump though as for most Americans - "It’s the economy stupid ".
His base are cultists so of course it will harden them
They are hardened by literally everything, that’s what happens in a cult
But you have to believe that Trump’s base consititutes a sufficient number of people to get him elected
Now, people like me are always the subject of lectures from oh so knowing self-proclaimed “knowledgable” posters that the vast majority of US voters are not cultists
But for Trump to win in 2020, that notion has to be false
Strangely enough, pretty much all these self-proclaimed “knowledgable” posters think 2020 is a slam dunk for Trump
Which is a total contradiction
Either there are enough cultists out there or there aren’t, it can’t be both
Republicans are going to have to openly defend open criminality if he is to be the candidate
People thought that would happen with Nixon but enough broke
I happen to think enough will openly defend open criminality this time for him to stay in office until the election, but it’s going to get harder and harder for them to do so
It is possible that enough Republicans could decide to wash their hands of the cunt, but not likely
In the US you are either red or blue. There is no middle ground. I don’t think it would ever be a case that a republican voter would lend the democrats a vote to oust Trump. According to monmouth poll 59% of people dont want to see him impeached. 73% of democrats want him to continue in office.
I just think yesterday’s news is yesterday’s news. They have thrown all they can at Trump and the runway is clear now for 2020 unless they have another bag of tricks up their sleeve which I don’t think they have. It will be all about policies and electoral mandates then and we haven’t seen much of this heretofore from any democratic candidate.
We also saw how divisive the democrats were when it came to Bernie or Hilary. This is another factor that could come into play as the democrats fight to be on the ticket.
I do find it amusing how on this forum, people only ever see Democrats as “divisive”, never Trump, never Republicans
The Republican ideology of white supremacy and shameless lying about literally everything of course being in no way divisive
Republicans are probably more unified in their divisiveness. As a collective they have more in common with each other in terms of conservatism etc. Democrats are not as unified due to having a liberal mindset and being open to newer ideas and creativeness. This can be difficult to distill and organise. Take the governor of Louisiana for instance John Bel Edwards. He is a million miles away from say an Andrew Cuomo.
That’s not true.
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Totally inaccurate. 40% of US voters or prospective voters are independents and are actually on average the largest voting black (obviously varies state to state).
Why do you think there are swing states? It is quite common for independent voters to switch sides from election to election, as many did in 2016.
2020 is absolutely not a slam dunk for Trump, anyone stating that knows nothing about US politics or is a wum.
3 out of 50 are probably swing states no? Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Nearly all the rest have long well established traditions of voting red or blue.
Large voting blacks? Do the Republicans know?
For what it’s worth I think this is largely true and increasingly so because the US right-wing (and increasingly the right-wing internationally) has had a concerted strategy of turning politics into an insane cultural and increasingly, racial war
People either buy into this insanity or they don’t
If you go back to the early 90s, a lot more states had senators from the party which normally lost the presidential election in that state - but that number has drastically declined
There is a huge alignment between the senate and presidential elections now in states, where one party sweeps everything
The right-wing strategy of division has been long running, it’s been going on in its modern guise since the early 60s but has been ramped up, particularly in the last 25 years
Trump is the logical outcome of that
The swing vote is pretty small and shrinking - you’re probably talking about 10% of the voters at most
Amazingly enough because some states have a roughly equal number of reds and blues
No different to Fermanagh/South Tyrone
Turnout affects the result a lot which is why Republicans have such a sophisticated voter suppression machine in place
In 2020 the following are genuinely “in play”
Florida
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin
Iowa
North Carolina
A case could be made for some others at a push but the following will likely vote Democratic in 2020:
Virginia (used to be Republican but trending Democratic since 2008 and that’s likely to continue)
Nevada
New Hampshire (used to be the archetypal swing state but trending distinctly Democratic these days and I can’t see that changing in the foreseeable future)
Colorado
Minnesota (close the last time but if Trump didn’t wwin in 2016 he’s highly unlikely to in 2020)
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan would have been considered in this bracket prior to 2016
Republicans grip on the following is looking more precarious due to demographic shifts but they are likelier to hold them in 2020:
Arizona
Georgia
Texas
So you’re talking about 15 states where the result is in any doubt at all, realistically it’s more like 10 or 11 max
If Texas ever does shift, the Republican party as it exists today is toast
And that can’t come soon enough
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There are thirteen (13) swing states.
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Nope, Independents determine the outcome in swing states.
As of August 2019, 29% of prospective voters identify as Democrat, 27% as Republican and 40% as Independent.
I realize it’s hard for those who see the world in black and white or in this case red and blue to understand, but those are the facts. Anyone who has spend significant time in the US and spoken to enough Americans would also know this.
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Even a cursory look at what happens in elections shows I’m right
I’m not really interested in whatever mental gymnastics you perform to try and back up an opinion that is wrong
In Beto O Rourke they have a genuine contender in Texas in time. Many Californians have migrated to Texas as they can no longer afford to live and work in places like San Fran. State Capitol Austin is really experiencing a surge along with San Antonio. Demographics are changing but an overwhelming factor is the college system. The emphasis on diversity at almost every opportunity is having a transformative effect on youth culture in America and politicising them earlier.
Republicans won the national vote share in the 2016 House elections 49.1% to 48.0%
In 2018 the Democrats won 53.4% to 44.8%
That was considered a “wave” election
Yet Democrats only increased their vote share by 5.4% and Republicans only dropped 4.3%
After two years of the international humiliation of Trump, for the Republicans’ vote share to drop by such a small amount sort of proves the point about how small the swing constituency is - because anybody who didn’t swing after that international humiliation is never going to swing
So my earlier estimate that 10% of the voters were swingers looks too high - in reality it’s probably 5-6% at most
The real key to winning elections is in bringing people who haven’t previously voted - to expand the electorate - that’s what Obama did in 2008
And it’s why “safe” candidates lose - they can’t do that