Hilarious how youâre posting UK opinion polling data here when you ignore data that suggests Corbynâs isnât doing well elsewhere
Seven polling companies did a poll of polls on the day of the referendum and six of them had the margin at 2 points or under.
The correct assumption in the polls, the media and elsewhere was that the result was on a knife edge.
Again the narrative that âall the polls were wrongâ is simply wrong.
It completely ignores the 21 separate polls that put Leave ahead in the month before the referendum.
There is no debate about this. Itâs black and white stuff.
Polling in the 2012 US election was significantly skewed in favour of the Republicans.
The final spread was Obama +0.7 with the actual margin being Obama +3.9.
With Clintonâs superior ground game, this is a distinct possibility again.
One of the things the Trump supporters have loudly proclaimed at every opportunity is how unpopular Clinton is.
Therefore they may also not be factoring a shy Clinton supporter effect.
I would also wager that there is a significant proportion of women in traditionally Republican supporting areas who will desert Trump - a shy anti-Trump effect.
But I havenât tried to claim Corbyn is ahead in polls or that if there was an election next month or in six months that heâd win.
I havenât even tried to claim Labour would be the biggest party at the next election, even if thatâs in 2020, as itâs likely to be.
If I had, you might have a point. I havenât done that, so you havenât got a point.
No, the correct assumption is that up to the Cox murder there was a small lead in the polling to leave, but the majority of polls were within the margin of error. After the Cox murder there was a definite swing in the polls to remain.
1 Like
It really is an incongruous duo to be such an avid supporter of - Jeremy Corbyn and Hillary Clinton.
There appeared to be a slight swing back towards Remain after the Cox murder as Iâve already said, but the majority of polls before it were putting Leave ahead. Even after it some polls still showed Leave ahead and the general pattern of the polls after the Cox murder still pointed to an extremely close result with a significant chance of a Leave victory.
What transpired was that the murder of Cox did not end up having a huge effect in the way people voted, and the actual result reflected the pattern the polls had been showing in the May 22nd to June 16th period, when 18 of 29 polls put Leave ahead.
The Brexit case is not similar to this US election. Bar a small number of individual polls that have put Trump narrowly ahead, the clear and consistent trend for many months, and certainly since it became obvious it would be a Clinton-Trump match up, is that Clinton has been ahead and more often than not comfortably so - sheâs never lost the lead in the poll spread, and that trend appears to be only hardening now that weâre well into the critical weeks before the election.
That Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, Utah and Alaska are now all in play is a truly disastrous reflection on the Trump campaign.
A turnaround from here and from this sort of margin would be pretty much unprecedented, certainly in modern history.
Who the fuck is Evan McMullin???
Heâs polling 22% in Presidential polls in UtahâŚ
Some homegrown Mormon by the looks of things.
Would be fucking gas if between him and Johnson they took enough votes away from Trump that Clinton ended up winning Utah of all places. 
2 Likes
We have now definitely entered full on twilight zone, if we werenât there already. Hot on the heels of Trumpâs video, a woman is now claiming that Trump felt her up on a flight 30 years ago. The absolute idiot actually said on national TV âIf he had stuck to the upper part of my body that would have been OK, but when he put his hand up my skirt that was too muchâ. For fucks sake.
Mate, you can discount all the Trump sexual assault stories (ongoing, more to come) all you want, but it doesnât take away from the fact that more women will vote in this election than men and currently Clinton has something like a 30% lead over Trump in female polls.
Of course thereâs more to come, itâs the Clintons weâre talking about here, who have spent their whole careers digging up dirt to destroy their opponents. I think they might have overreached here though as Trump will go deeper into the gutter than they are used to. The next three weeks will be a parade of women that Trump supposedly groped/kissed and Bill supposedly flashed/groped/raped.
#prayforAmerica
Trump allegations: summary
By the early hours of Thursday (US time) the list of new allegations against Trump included:
Two Miss USA contestants who claimed Trump deliberately walked in on them when they were naked in a dressing room.
Five Miss Teen USA contestants also told Buzzfeed he had entered their dressing room while the young women â aged between 15 and 19 â were getting changed.
Two women, Jessica Leeds and Rachel Crooks, who allege Trump groped or kissed them without consent â one in the first-class seat of an aircraft.
A claim by another woman, Mindy McGillivray, that she was groped at a Trump event at his Mar-A-Lago estate in Florida.
An account by Natasha Stoynoff, a reporter for People magazine, who says Trump forced himself on her shortly before she was due to interview him and his wife in 2005.
An incident in which Trump appears to sexualise a 10-year-old girl, with video recording him saying of the child: âI am going to be dating her in 10 years. Can you believe it?â
All smoke no fire.
1 Like
Any estimate as to how much heâs spent over the years burying these type of stories?
A lot Iâd imagine
Doesnât he have some legal action about the rape of a 13 year old girl coming up as well?
1 Like
Trumps a bit mad but Hilary is an evil bitch. Heard somebody say Iâd rather pick a field of buachalanns than pick one of those to be president. Going to be some mess.
Jesus Christ.
Heâs a mad bastard
Heâs a dangerous bastard. And sheâs a dangerous cunt. Best of luck America 
