Didnât she cheat on her husband with the GOD lad? 
Get the fuck outta here 
And smokers as well for that matter
We could do with some media type from the states coming on here to add a bit of excitement to the tedious back and fourth, piss poor attempts at political analysis, and cringe worthy attempts at humour on display in this thread. Up your game lads you are getting very repetitive and making this the most boring thread on tfk.
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Fitzy pontificating on religion, someone ban that cunt
@anon7035031 this is how you make predictions mate
âBut it seems fair to say that, if Trump loses the election, it will be because women voted against him. I took a look at how men and women split their votes four years ago, according to polls conducted in November 2012. On average, Mitt Romney led President Obama by 7 percentage points among men, about the same as Trumpâs 5-point lead among men now. But Romney held his own among women, losing them by 8 points, whereas theyâre going against Trump by 15 points.â
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The media are completely out of touch, just as they were in the UK on Brexit. Younger people in particular pay zero attention to the mainstream media, their opinions are based on social media which so far isnât totally controlled by the elites.
Hillary is having a really hard time connecting to younger voters, they are fed up of the same shit from both parties. Thatâs the dynamic the media are missing.
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It doesnât take a genius to predict Hillary would win the majority of the women vote and Trump would struggle. Regardless of the Republican candidate, as long as it were a man, the Democrats were always going to go after him on sexism. You have no idea how the Democratic media machine works here, it is relentless. Five days later CNN are still playing the Trump tape on repeat as if people hadnât seen it, and there is zero coverage on Hillaryâs wikileaks material.
The harder prediction is to predict what will actually happen, as opposed to what most people think will happen. As someone who was ridiculed on here for predicting a Brexit outcome, I feel comfortable about my predictive powers. Unless there is a major event before the election, Clinton should win, but it will be closer than many are predicting.
What was revealed in the Hillary Wikileaks thing?
What she says privately to bankers that are banking her. She gave a speech in Brazil where she said she was for open borders (possible distant relation of @caoimhaoin). At a NY event she stressed that you have to have one position privately and another publically, and they can be the opposite. Trump called her on it in the debate, and she claimed she was talking about Abe Lincoln.
Thereâs a lot to come Iâd imagine. Hopefully a big fat devastating one.
Itâs hardly earth shattering stuff mate is it? Iâd say thereâs more probability of wiki releasing Trump scandal stuff at this stage than Hillary, Iâd say they have fuck all on her.
Assange wonât release anything on Trump, he hates Clinton and Obama.
Simon Carswell reports from Beaver County about the Pussy remark.
Rattled.
Wouldnât that be classed as voter fraud
Where exactly did you predict a Brexit outcome? Feel free to quote the relevant post/s.
However the evidence appears to be that you did not predict a Brexit outcome at all, and in fact believed Brexit would lose.
Em, maybe what most people are predicting a Hillary Clinton win because thatâs what they think will happen? 
It really would be quite hard to predict otherwise, looking at the polls. Nevertheless, do keep convincing yourself that you know whatâs going to happen, even if it flies in the face of all evidence.
Who knows, maybe youâll be right, but thereâs no evidence whatsoever that you will be.
Clinton has consistently had a massive lead over Trump among young people. Feel free to quote any poll you can find regarding such and find me one where Trump is even close.
It looks like youâre the one who is out of touch.
Itâs terribly funny, really. You ramble on constantly about the âliberal mediaâ, âthe Democratic machineâ, and âCNNâ. Youâre obsessed with them.
Then you write the following:
Classic cognitive dissonance.
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Someone who perpetually predicts Liverpool to win the EPL shouldnât really be debating predictive powers.
I understand you have an obsessive need to find contradictions in what other posters say, and somehow make that into an argument, but all it does is expose you as a loon.
When everyone on here was adamant on a Bremain outcome, I was the lone voice of caution, fact. The important point on Brexit is that all the polls, up to the day ahead of the vote, were predicting a defeat for Brexit. Polls are turning out to be increasingly unreliable, and there is a good reason for it. Polling is based on landlines as most mobile phone numbers are not available or legal to use (its illegal here to make a telemarketing call to a mobile number, not sure about Ireland). Most people donât even use a landline any more, and literally no young person uses one. The result is those doing the polls keep calling landlines until someone picks up, so realistically itâs a poll of people who use a landline.
Itâs easy to predict a Hillary victory, just as it was easy to predict since the campaign began. Hillary was always going to be the Democratic nominee, a corrupt DNC and the lapdog mainstream media made sure of that. I never said the media have no influence, they have declining influence, but they still have enormous influence over morons who canât think for themselves. The danger for Hillary is that there are more people who are informed of the issues, which is why her campaign have to continue to come up with distractions like the 11 year old Trump tape.
All I said was that you deemed a Brexit win âunlikelyâ on the day, and I quoted the relevant post.
You said you predicted a Brexit outcome but havenât quoted where you said that.
The Brexit polls were extremely close. You say âall the polls predicted a defeat for Brexitâ.
This is completely incorrect.
Between May 22nd and the murder of Jo Cox on June 16th, a week before the referendum, there were 29 polls and 18 of them had Leave ahead. Even after June 16th when the polls showed a slight switch back to Remain, there were three polls which showed Leave ahead.
The comparison between Trump and Brexit has been made many times but itâs clear that those making the comparison donât know what the polls before the Brexit referendum said. If Trump is ahead in 18 of the next 29 polls, then a comparison can be made.
Only the LA Times poll has been a consistent outlier in having Trump ahead during the campaign and thereâs excellent reason to think this is based on a faulty methodology, relying as it does on the same sample of people every single time.
The data supports my argument not yours. My argument is that polling is increasingly unreliable, and Brexit is a prime example. Obviously the Jo Cox murder was a key event, and had a similar impact on polling as the Trump tape has in the US.
If you exclude polls that are within the margin of error (generally 3%), in the week before the Cox murder there were 6 polls indicating a leave result and none for stay. In the week after the Cox murder, there were 4 polls indicating a stay result, and none for leave. This was in an environment of constant establishment party and media support for stay, and a deliberate attempt to tie the murder (the act of a lunatic) to those in favor of Brexit. The last poll, on June 22, which had the largest sample number, had a massive 55% to 45% outcome for stay.
The polls were wrong, plain and simple. The question is why, and the reason I gave in my prior reply is generally accepted as the most likely to be correct.
The Brexit outcome was a fuck you to the establishment political parties in the UK, and their lapdog media. A vote for Trump is the same in the US. Just like the media were out of touch with sentiment in the UK prior to Brexit, they are also quite possibly out of touch with sentiment in the US.
@anon7035031 is correct in that polling is definitely more unreliable.
If it wasnât for Trumpâs rape bile coming out I would give him a good chance in this. I definitely believed in the shy Trumper factor and a combo of millennials not giving a fuck about HRC giving Trump a win.