Thank fuck this is nearly over.
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Over? It may only just have begun.
The boring part is nearly over. The ensuing civil war will be box office
Youād nearly hope Trump wins just to see what happens.
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Is the lad in tears wearing a toupee out of solidarity with Trump?
Unless thereās a very significant Bradley effect at work it doesnāt look too likely. Trump would need the MOE to fall heavily in his favour just about everywhere. One way or another his reaction will be priceless.
She should do it, but itāll be an interesting day.
There are a few things that would worry me.
- A lot of the polls are straight shootouts between Clinton & Trump when that isnāt the only choice. A few % for Stein, Johnson or write ins for Bernie (for example as some have campaigned for) could pare Clintons % lead in places.
- A silent Trump vote. If there was to be an underestimate of support Iād imagine it would fall on his side.
- A fuck it vote. They are both awful candidates and some people just want to watch the world burn.
- The nature of the vote means that itās almost irrelevant what your overall %'s are, the important ones are the battleground states which are closer than the 3-4% of the overall Hillary has, so even a small swing here could be enough.
Definitely agree on the silent vote point. That to me seems more probable than possible. While the key states are mostly within the margin of error, the problem for Trump is that he needs to win all of them. There needs to be a systematic error in his favour as opposed to what you would normally see.
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He has win all the battlegrounds and flip somewhere like Michigan.Very little chance.Its going to be an entertaining few days.
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Interesting piece on how the Republicans are deliberately making it more difficult for black people to vote in North Carolina a key state.
Trump does have a path and itās even possible, not likely, but possible that he could lose the popular vote by 2-3% and win the electoral college.
Looking at the early vote, Iām not convinced Clinton has North Carolina in hand.
Florida looks better for her but it still looks like toss up territory.
You have to assume at this stage that Ohio and Iowa will probably go to Trump.
If Trump carries the big three swing states of Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, then heās potentially one state away from getting to 270.
Of the three rust belt states heās looking to flip, Michigan is the one thatās most likely to, in my view - remember what happened in the primaries.
Clintonās big advantages are obviously her ground game and also the fact that the Latino vote is consistently underpolled.
She should do it, but the polls were out by 3.2% in 2012, so anythingās possible.
Yes, we were all eagerly awaiting news from Dixville Notch in New Hampshire where as ever the votes were all cast at midnight local time, the first ballots of election day. Slightly worrying sign this. For as long as I can remember this has been a safe GOP booth. The one rogue voter who voted for Willard Romney can probably be counted as really belonging to our column but if this starts a trend of GOP voters opting for splinter candidates instead of the official candidate we could be facing a repeat of 1992.
Whatever happens today, its a near certainty that Mrs Clinton will emulate her husbandās feat (twice) of winning less than 50% of the vote.
Can somebody explain what Clinton having a ābetter ground gameā mean?
Not me !
Ability to ferry people to polling stations. The ability to GOTV - get out the vote.
Particularly in this election where neither candidate is liked all that much.
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Clinton is a good 10 inches shorter than Trump. He is good on the high puckouts. Clinton is a terrier on the breaking ball.
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This is how the fivethirtyeight site have their map.
Iām predicting the same but Trump taking North Carolina. Iāve a tiny bet on Clinton getting 300-329.
But Iād delighted if it got tight enough to make it more entertaining. That or a landslide, thatād be entertaining too.
Youāre coming in this van to vote you fucker or elseā¦Simples.
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No you donāt. Thats fucking ridiculously dumb
Where they have concentrated their āon the groundā campaign staff. Have a look at the charts here to get an idea of the strategic implications
Apparently the Trump campaign abandoned its own polling operations a long time ago, which goes someway towards explaining the seemingly erratic nature of his campaign speeches and distribution of offices.
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