Yeah this didn’t happen. 
Is Seoirse a liar?
On the Moderna:
6th February
1,893 vaccines administered - we’ll presume these are all first doses.
Jump forward 4 weeks.
So we will presume that a further 1,893 were second doses.
Meaning 7,803 need to be held back for second doses by the 3rd April a good sized chunk of these are probably already given out in the current 22k figure - we’ll say 50% for argument sake.
So 22k doses given:
1,893 x 2 = 3,786
3,500 x 2 = 7,000
So we will say 11k needs to be kept in reserve for second doses what has been administered to date.
So there is probably 46k Moderna vaccines available, 11k needed for second doses.
So you then have an extra 35k, they should be well able to throw 17k of those out this week to people with first doses. You then keep your remainder for the second doses until such time as a new order comes, deliver half, keep half in store.
And that’s being very conservative.
The Moderna numbers are pitiful.
A Liverpool fan and political cynic. He’s almost certainly a liar.
Simon Donnelly 
And over a million doses in the next 5 days 
That’s what we will be. A million a month will change things massively. There’ll be loads of teething problems and anecdotal issues and gnashing and wailing about inefficiency but the main thing is we’ll be powering through the population with vaccines. It’s going to change things fast, people will be really surprised at it.
There’ll be a huge catch up job later if vaccines are going to have to be administered annually or whatever, but once we’re at the million a month level it’s all about the “quick and dirty” job, lash it out, don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
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I liked Simon Donnelly, you don’t get too many midget strikers anymore these days. They are usually made wingers or false nines or no 10s.
Seoirse is not to be trusted.
They are holding back extra first doses in case they don’t get second doses. On top of the second doses they are holding back already. Sweet jebus.
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April is D-Day for this whole thing. 1m vaccinations is what we’ve done in total and a more besides.
They simply cannot fuck this up.
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It’s kind of like the time Inter Milan bought Robbie Keane to be their 6th choice striker.
Re Moderna, it was this that I received ion Monday and was told by my GP that it was mainly being given out to smaller practices that didn’t have large numbers of over 85s as patients.
The Belgian figures do seem to be a very steady guide for the Irish ones
If you take out the delivery for the 22nd it leaves it at 1.224m
Factor that by the 2.33 population ratio and it leaves Ireland at 534k
Actual figure is 571k
Factor that by the 2.33 population ratio and it leaves Ireland at 215k
Actual figure is 216k
Factor that by the 2.33 population ratio and it leaves Ireland at 68k
Actual figure is 68k
So it’s likely a further 75-80k Pfizer have already been received this week. While the Moderna and AZ vaccines pretty much seem to be bang on relative to Belgium, Ireland received 7% more relative to population than Belgium did.
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Ireland may have bought all of the Pfizer doses they were entitled to and Belgium didn’t…
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But we’re only on 32% of Moderna administered and I’d say say probably a third of the Moderna doses administered have probably been second doses.
So realistically they probably should be putting about 15k Moderna out this week and then keeping the rest in reserve until a new batch arrives, 50% out for first doses, hold the rest over and repeat.
How much is the Moderna due to increase by in Q2? Their commitment for Q1 was 100k.
The reporting to the ECDC has been a bit shit but if you go to section 7 of this it allows you to filter by vaccine type per week.
https://covid19-vaccine-report.ecdc.europa.eu/
The data would suggest over 10k waiting on a 2nd dose of Moderna.
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So technically there is enough scope for 20k Moderna vaccines to be rolled out this week and enough stock kept over for a second dose.
Surely that would make more sense than having 70% of it sitting in a fridge?
your faith in the HSE getting a million out in April is to be commended. I would love to have the same optimism, and I do genuinely hope they meet that target and lash the fuck out of it, but I have massive, massive doubts that the HSE will be able to ramp it up to that level. I mean, this is the set up that spent €3.7m rolling out a free software package that every company uses for online meetings. It’ll be massive if they get a million vaccines out in April, and if they do so, I’ll be the first to say well done to them on it. We’ll wait and see.
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