On second thoughts…
Google is great lads
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No Covid-19 deaths notified in over-65s last week as vaccines take hold
Vaccination is leading to a “big collapse” in Covid-19 infections and deaths among older people, with no deaths notified last week, HSE chief clinical officer Dr Colm Henry has said.
The fall-off in infections and deaths among older people cannot be explained alone by the general fall in cases across the State, he told a HSE media briefing yesterday.
In week 13 of the year, the seven days to April 6th, no deaths among over-65s from Covid-19 were notified to health authorities. This contrasted with 581 deaths among over-65s in the second week of the year, when the disease was surging after restrictions were eased for the Christmas period.
The number of notified deaths from Covid-19 among over-65s has been fewer than 20 in each of the past five weeks.
Dr Henry said a small number of deaths in that age category could yet be notified at a later date, but the numbers were not likely to be significant. Deaths among over-65s account for 92 per cent of all deaths in the State from Covid-19.
So far in April just 12 deaths have been attributed to Covid-19, compared with 1,400 in January, 800 in February and 200 in March.
There has also been a 95 per cent drop in the number of cases among people the over-75s, the vast majority of whom have received at least one vaccine dose. In the second week of the year, the number of cases among over-75s peaked at 2,237 but had last week fallen to just 102.
In the week to April 6th, just 33 people over 85 were confirmed as having Covid-19. In the first week of January, before mass vaccinations of the elderly began, there were 759 cases in this age group.
The over-85s account for 42 per cent of all deaths in the State from Covid-19.
“We know that the vaccinations are particularly successful in preventing serious illness and death in the elderly,” Dr Henry said.
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Well that’s the vulnerable now protected. Job should be done. It is now morally safe to OIUTF based on the terms outlines in April 2020. The goalposts have entirely shifted.
You’d imagine the 600-700k vaccines left to administer this month should more or less cover at least the fist dose in those groupings.
Dr. Pipe has done serious work here. Absolutely outstanding.
You’d imagine once the last group listed there are done, the 16-64 year olds at risk, then we’re genuinely done with this shite.
At this point they shouldn’t be even reporting daily case numbers as the lead indicator, they’re now irrelevant
Fair play 
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Going on the at risk status and being a caring society hench the restrictions etc. Tackling the top 20% of an issue will solve 80% of the problem. Pareto is a great lad
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Theres real world evidence to prove something I said was wrong. The problem these days is not many will adjust their position on that basis. Double down and dig deeper, scream louder and bully your opinion into people
PIIIINNNNNNNNNNNNNNTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
Ah I don’t think we’re like that.
We just argue for the sake of winning the argument, not to force our views on others.
I’m a very driven, combative internet poster. I think that culture has been fostered around this forum.
Have you ever changed your views on anything on this forum over the years?
Good question.
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There’s no longer copulation of ideas. Lads are yoked to their particular view point like a beast pulling a plough.
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Not directed at anyone on here , just in society in general. Pick a side and dig in
Looks like the J&J vaccine also kills people.
Ah well.
Not everywhere…
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Sweden updated their forecast again today.
Since the last time it was updated ( 2 weeks ago), there are a few changes worth mentioning.
They were forecasting 758k of AZ in April and 567k of AZ in June. This has since been updated to 476k in April and 853k in May. Roughly the same amount of vaccine over the 2 months but spread differently. The 224k Ireland expects to get in April still looks ok for now…
Sweden were also expecting 67,000 doses of J&J in April, 295k in May and 888k in June. This has since been revised to 31k in April, 331k in May and 888k in June. So based on that I’m fairly sure Ireland won’t get the 40,800 doses of J&J expected in April. Sweden’s forecast are to the nearest thousand so it’s a bit harder to forecast to compare to the Belgium forecast. 67K down to 31k is a 53% reduction so I’d say Ireland will get between 19k and 20k doses of J&J based on the above. I’ll keep an eye on the Belgium forecast in the meantime and see if there’s any change.
No change on Curevac. The HSE aren’t even factoring them into the forecasts yet.
For Moderna, Q2 total should be unchanged but for Sweden the April figure is up 15k since the forecast was last updated and the June figure is down 16k. No change for May.
No change for Pfizer.
The Belgium forecast should be out over the next few days and using the info from Belgium and Sweden we should be able to see how on track the Q2 forecasts published during the week are…
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