You’d imagine by the end of June covid will nearly be a busted flush.
I’ve been telling ye as much for months.
AZ delivery into Belgium yesterday @Copper_pipe? Should be into Ireland by now too.
I wonder how they’ll pace the AZ over the next fortnight. Around 35k by Monday night, less Tuesdays use plus this 32k. Another delivery next week but they can still only afford to do a few thousand a day.
The days vary so I’d say tomorrow or Friday.
1 Like
A 50-59 section has been added showing 11k of 50-59 (more with other cohorts as mentioned before). Suggests they’re moving straight away into using Pfizer for over 50s along with AZ. Good to see that they can do both and get a good pace going on that cohort.
When on earth is the decision on the revamped rollout and use of J&J going to be completed? It appears to me to have gone from NIAC to the HSE and back to NIAC. The decision making is too slow. The only positive for me is if they can hit 270k (expect it will be more) this week without even using much of the J&J.
I am hoping they go with J&J for the 45-49 age group I will be done in about 4 weeks time if that’s the case
2 Likes
The only plus point on this is that the J&J is a one dose shot with limited supply. Whenever they do get the go ahead with what to do with it they can use all they have in a couple of days.
I’d say they will have to use it on the 40s.
I’m still a bit wary of that happening based on deliveries. If they hold onto the existing J&J stock and expected deliveries in the next couple of weeks then some can go to that cohort and/or they delay 45-49 by 2-3 weeks.
I’d expect if you asked most 45 year olds they’d be happy enough to wait until the third week of June for a dose if it meant being done alright. Based on risk factors, going down the ages isn’t a big deal anyway and is just a logistical thing. I do think that under 50 there should be less of the age cohort thing but I understand why they are doing it.
1 Like
There’s 606k in that population age bracket. 28.6% done to Monday evening.
I’d say they don’t have a clue on the real target number given other Cohorts and Cohort 7.
So by process of elimation.
606k @ 28.6% is 173k done.
10k of that has been recorded in the cohort 9 - the rest presumably in the other cohorts.
So we can probably put a rough figure of 445k for Cohort 9.
Well no, because there will be much like with Cohort 4, people in Cohort 9 also U.K. Cohort 7.
I don’t think an estimate has been put on Cohort 9, likely because Cohort 6 was so off.
You’ll see like with the 60s that you’ll be getting a few thousand extra a day going up in the 50-59 category above their specific cohort.
There is probably already 163k of 50-59s classified in other cohorts. Is there any reason why these people would be swapped out of there now?
great news Boxty. My auld fella got the second shot yesterday too. Jaysus, ye must be of a similar vintage. He wouldn’t have a clue about TFK though. Heading down to sup a few drinks with him tomorrow night.
3 Likes
Enjoy the few quiet ones with him. So here we are, all juiced up and nowhere to go. It’s a waiting game now but I’m mad for a few creamy ones and a couple of hours bullshit, lies and football shite with others than those I’m enduring for the last 15 months.
All that said, there’s a few who won’t be joining us and it’ll dampen the occasion somewhat. Life moves on, give the Don my regards.
2 Likes
Hard to know as some of those with underlying conditions would have been included in that I think.
I don’t follow you.
I expect that there will be people vaccinated by their GP ahead of mass vaccinations, as happened with the 60s. No reason why it won’t happen. It’s from High Risk to 59, not 49.
I know.
The ECDC states 28%. So we know going by ECDC figures we have roughly 173k 50-59s done. We have only 10k of them recorded in Cohort 9 so it’s likely 163k of those are recorded in various other groupings - most likely Cohort 2 which is FLHCWs and Cohort 5 wihich is the 18-69 at risk category.
Taking away those 163k recorded in cohorts 1-7 it would leave around 445k needing to be vaccinated in the Cohort 9 with 10k of them done.
My conservative guess over the next 3 weeks is that to get Cohort 7 and Cohort 9 “done” with first doses they’ll need around 600k doses .
300k (I see that’s their revised number) in Cohort 7, with say 20% of them 50-59 (60k), probably more but anyway.
445k in “Cohort 9”, less 60k is 385k- with an assumed non take up of 20% is 308k doses.
It’s basically over 200k first doses a week which looks difficult, but could be doable with:
180k this week
180k the week after
240k on the final week- final week assumes that they get AZ in with plenty of time and also can do a lot on that Monday
Probably tight, as there will be additional first doses of over 60 stragglers as well- maybe 50k.
Aside from deliveries the uncertainties are i) what Cohort 7 actually looks like, incl. overlap with Cohort 7 2) uptake of 50-59 3) stretched doses to 6 would give them more leeway
Either way, expect that the 40s will be started by June 1st in some vaccinations centres as the 50s were yesterday.
1 Like