World Cup 2018 Qualifying Permutations-AKA Braz is no fun

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Updated as of 5/10/17:

Chances of each group producing an inferior second place team in order of likelihood:

Group F:

Slovakia have now completed all their matches against top 5 opposition and finish with 12 points and a GD of +5 in the second place league.

Slovenia can get to a maximum of 11 points in the second place league. They remain in the competition in mathematical terms but barring a miracle are out.

Scotland can get to 14 points with a win in Slovenia.

Bottom line: we need Scotland to not win in Slovenia. If they don’t win, the door is open and 6 points for the Irish would clinch a play-off spot.

Group H

Bosnia play Belgium at home next, while Greece go to Cyprus next, in their final match against another top 5 team.

The Irish need Bosnia to lose or at least not win, and Greece to drop points.

If Greece win, they would go to 13 points in the second place league with a goal difference of at least +4, and it’ll mean that whoever finishes second in Group H will have a minimum of 13 points.

Bottom line: if Greece win in Cyprus, forget it as far as this group is concerned. If Bosnia beat Belgium, forget it.

If neither happen, it’s on.

Group I

All of the following would have to happen:

Turkey beat Iceland (10/11 odds)
Turkey then fail to win in Finland in the final match (unlikely)
Ukraine fail to beat Croatia (decent chance)

That would put Iceland in second place on 13 points and a best case goal difference of +2, but with a superior number of goals scored to the Irish.

If Turkey beat Iceland by one goal and the other two things happen, a two goal victory against Wales would put the Irish into a play-off.

If Turkey beat Iceland by two goals and the other two things happen, a one goal victory would be sufficient for the Irish.

Group C

Ireland (IFA) need to lose in Norway. Eire need to beat Wales and make up five goals in the process in these two matches (the Moldova result doesn’t count in this regard).

ie. Norway 3-0 Ireland and Wales 0-2 Eire would put Eire in a play-off.

Group E

Denmark won in Montenegro tonight.

That effectively closes the door on this group barring a miracle, which would mean a heavy Romanian win in Denmark.

Group A

We need Sweden to not beat Luxembourg. Then a draw between Holland and Sweden in the final game, leaving Sweden in second place on 12 points.

One final Hail Mary scenario:

All the following happen

i) Bosnia fail to beat both Belgium and Estonia, or else lose to Belgium by 2 goals more than they beat Estonia, leaving them on a maximum 10 points in the first case and 11 with best case 0 goal difference in the second case.
ii) Greece lose to Cyprus, leaving them on 10.
iii) Wales fail to win in Georgia.
iv) Eire beat Moldova.

v)A draw in the final match in Cardiff then gets the Irish a play-off.

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I think we’re going to do it.

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This is the only group where there’s a real chance of bottom place changing. Any impact from that Sid?

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Scotland’s Celtic contingent are a great bunch of lads. They changed the team dynamic and turned around Scotland’s disastrous start to the group when Strachan belatedly fired them into the starting lineup en masse. But there’s nothing surer than Scotland fucking up in Slovenia on Sunday. It’s there for us.

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It could.

Say Sweden drew 1-1 with Luxembourg and lost 1-0 to Holland, but Belarus managed to finish in 5th place by getting something from Holland.

Sweden would end up with 13 points and a GD of +9 in the second place league.

If the same results occurred but Luxembourg finish 5th, then Sweden would only be on 11 points in the second place league.

This group is the longest of the long shots though.

There’s a permutations game here:

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Update as of 6/10/17

Group I

Results:
Croatia 1-1 Finland
Kosovo 0-2 Ukraine
Turkey 0-3 Iceland

That leaves the group table:
Iceland 19 points GD +7
Croatia 17 points GD +9
Ukraine 17 points GD +6
Turkey 14 points GD +1

Turkey are now eliminated.

For second place purposes the table is:
Iceland 16 points GD +6
Croatia 11 points GD +2
Ukraine 11 points GD +1

Bottom line:
We need Ukraine and Croatia to draw, leaving both on 12 points in the second place league.

A win for either would push them onto 14 points and out of the reach of the Irish.

Ukraine v Croatia will be played at the same time as Wales v Eire.

A draw in the Ukraine v Croatia match would potentially mean a draw would put Wales in a play-off, but if Group H or Group F don’t open the door, Wales would not know what they have to do and would have to assume only a win would do them.

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I’ll admit, I’ve been tuning into here regularly over the last few days to work out how to the fuck we could qualify. Thanks for the permutations @Sidney, much appreciated

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+1. Brilliant stuff @Sidney

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Sweden will beat Luxembourg. Hope you didn’t expend too much brain power coming up with that permutation.

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Yes ; well done Sid ``

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Cheers @Sidney I haven’t a fucking clue what’s going on but you’re making it much clearer

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Brain power isn’t expended by thinking. It’s a renewable resource which only improves in efficiency through such exercise.

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Ooooft

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So basically…

If we draw with Wales we are out.

If we lose to Wales we are out.

We have to beat Wales and hope that either Scotland lose or draw or that Ukraine - Croatia is a draw.

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Cheers @Sidney

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Or Serbia lose to Georgia

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Ok, so we have to win in Cardiff and hope some other results go our way to get a playoff spot?

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That has been the case for a long time now mate

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Will a score draw in Cardiff do us?

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No

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