You think anyone to the left is on the dole…or at least supports a large welfare state…get a grip, we in Sinn Fein just want a fairer society. You’re little snide remarks about people being unemployed shows you up for the ignorant pig that you are. If you can’t see what is behind cycles of unemployment or what creates disadvantagd areas you should refrain from discussing until you become more informed… If you are already informed on such issues and continue to take your pig headed response then you are merely a cunt. And no one like a cunt.
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Again you’re evading the issue.
Nowhere across the country did the FF vote transfer to SF like it did in Donegal. Why was that?
If you look at the traditional vote of FF in Donegal, it has has a history of republican tradition, there had been a Blaney in office for the guts of 50 years with that vote. You’re extremely uniformed here if you still can’t see the trends and patterns and how they are unique with regard to Donegal.
There is no issue of baggage switching from FF to SF in Donegal and the other border regions like there would be down in places like Cork and Limerick etc. There is genuine sympathy and understanding of northern nationalists and the conflict.
I addressed the issue directly.
I’ve given you the three TDs that were the mainstay of the FF party in recent times. None of them would have been elected due to a strong history in the republican tradition.
I’m well informed with regard to the voting trends up here buddy, You seem to think that you can play around with facts and figures to suit whatever new mantra you’ve invented.
The way you changed from a 400% increase in support to a 400% increase in seats in the flash of an eye was entertaining I’ll give you that.
However I think you need to learning more abour PR-STV electoral system if you fail to see how SF had the support in place in 2007 to have two TDs elected in Donegal. They smartened up a bit in 2011 and were helped by the national swing against Donegal.
If we see Three SF TDs and Thomas Pringle returned in Donegal this time I’ll agree with you that Donegal has elected individuals based on their republican tradition. However it won’t happen.
Not even close.
I’ll respond to the rest later but this is a blatant lie. I used the 400% increase in direct correlation to seats from the very beginning. Either I’m extraordinary at being able to manipulate random figures or you’re looking to try and spin it for the hole you managed dig yourself into. The figures blew up in your face in relation to the argument you were trying to construct, you were talking about minimal gains in vote % as a reason for the rise in seats and you’ve been chasing your tail around the place since the figures showed that to be a bogus argument.
Again you’re failing to understand basic English.
I said they only required a minimal increase in support to get the two additional seats in Donegal.
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You said it was a 5-10% increase in their actual support.
WRONG
In Donegal alone it was a 55% increase in 1st vote % from the 07 to 11 elections which I’m sure will increase again this election.
You tried to downplay the surge in support for Sinn Fein as minimal, it was not, it was a seismic shift.
The figures showed you to be uninformed and you’ve been chasing your tail around ever since.
A seismic shift?
They went from almost getting two seats to getting two seat when the party of Government saw its support decimated and divvied up between SF and FG.
You’re retreating from your point about FF being republican voters in Donegal as well. It was only a matter of time I suppose.
AS I’ve repeatedly stated we’ll only see a true reflection of the level of support for SF in Donegal now that they’ve decided to run three candidates.
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You are some fucking clown.
From not getting a seat to topping the poll in the subsequent election is a seismic shift. You know that but you are too fucking arrogant to put your hands up and admit you were talking our of your hole as the figures show.
I haven’t retreated from there being a strong republican vote at all in Donegal. You see that, not an inch.
The only thing on this matter that is apparent is that you are unable to show a constituency that has had the level of swing from FF to SF as there has been in Donegal. As the matter stands, I’m the guy with the statistics and facts backing up my argument, you’re just intending to bluster and stall.
Ulster says no!
I haven’t even looked at other constituencies yet.
I’m off to my personal training hour and I’ll be back to school you again later.
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You will need all the personal training you can get.
That’s a fair amount of bullshit for only one post.
The “almost getting two seats” line is a curious slant to take on things. People don’t generally count “almost seats” and even rarer is the coveted double almost seat that SF managed to win.
SF’s vote in Donegal grew fairly spectacularly. When you consider Pringle’s rise at the same time and his SF roots, they did really well to grow their vote by so much while Pringle took his own share of the republican vote.
FG got a massive bounce in support in a recessionary period.
SF got a significant bounce in popularity in a boom period in 2002.
What’s your point, pal?
You’re going to expose how little you understand about PR-STV if you’re not careful.
An additional 1% would have gotten them over the line with two seats in 2007. They’ve learned their lesson on transfers which is why they’re running three candidates. It’s more to do with ensuring they get over quota earlier with their stronger two, rather than waiting until the later counts. It leaves nothing to chance. Very smart electorally.
The seismic shift is completely bullshit when you take into account the swing away from Fianna Fail and the austerity erase we were entering in 2011.
[quote=“croppy_boy, post:1743, topic:21776, full:true”].
You’re going to expose how little you understand about PR-STV if you’re not careful.
An additional 1% would have gotten them over the line with two seats in 2007. They’ve learned their lesson on transfers which is why they’re running three candidates. It’s more to do with ensuring they get over quota earlier with their stronger two, rather than waiting until the later counts. It leaves nothing to chance. Very smart electorally.
The seismic shift is completely bullshit when you take into account the swing away from Fianna Fail and the austerity erase we were entering in 2011.
[/quote]
That’s an extremely strange post.
I’m perfectly comfortable with my understanding of the electoral system, thanks.
I find it strange that you accuse @Nembo_Kid of using selective stats when you’re talking about “almost seats” and other vague and pointless terms that are nothing to do with benchmarks.
SF’s vote grew by a very large amount in terms of seats or in terms of % of first preferences. Those are some useful stats to use in assessing performance. Discounting seats because they had previous “almost seats” is a ridiculous reach.
I’m not sure what their 3 candidates running this time has to do with anything I have posted about. I don’t need you to explain any of that to me, I don’t think it has anything at all to do with judging whether SF had strong growth in Donegal before now.
And it doesn’t really matter where the votes came from. A seismic shift is a seismic shift, irrespective of whether FF lost the votes or FG lost the votes or whether there was an austerity era or not. Those factors are reasons why there was a seismic shift. On the one hand, you’re arguing there was no big upswing for SF, on the other hand you’re arguing that there was a big swing away from FF and SF benefited from that.
Are you really failing to grasp that a ‘seismic shift’ to a left leaning republican party during a time of austerity and economic downturn yielded exactly what the same candidates would have achieved in the previous election with a minimal increase in the percentage of first preferences both candidates won?
The reason three candidates are running this time is that SF clearly suspect that the support has dipped and they’ll struggle to get quotas for the main two candidates. Hence they’ve a third candidate who will be eliminated and spread his transfers between the main two, pushing them either over or close to the quota.
The debate really was Nembo claiming that Donegal voters went from Fianna Fail to Sinn Fein as they vote for republican candidates and I called him out on this horseshit.
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You’ve done no such thing.
I’m still waiting for you to show you me a FF to SF voting swing in another constituency as there was in Donegal. This is the crux of the matter, this is where you have been exposed, again.