In the 2006 election they had nobody in Donegal, 1 in Cavan/Monaghan, none in Sligo/Leitrim, 1 in Louth and none in Meath.
They now look like they have an outside chance of 3 in Donegal, they double up in both Cavan/Monaghan and Louth. They have seats in Meath and Leitrim. They will have quadrupled their numbers in this region in the past two elections in areas with an hourâs drive of the border, they have done this despite sustained and bitter attacks on them in relation to the troubles from the establishment media and parties.
People who lived close to the border in those times know full well about the extent of the troubles and atmosphere that existed at the times. They have probably grown tired of politicians and commentators trying to point score off something they had no exposure or understanding of.
I presume that you mean the 2007 Irish General Election.
Itâs not the same Donegal Constituency as in 2007, itâs twice as big and if you joined the two constituencies together for that count then youâd have got the two currently sitting TDs elected on transfers far easier than they would have been back then. They will not get three elected in Donegal this time.
In Louth the likely would have pushed close to a second TD last time out, but they opted not to stand one.
In Cavan Monaghan Kathryn Reilly was most unlucky to lose out the last time so itâs only going to take a rise in support of about 1% to make the gains that youâre mentioning here.
The likelihood is they will have at the expected minimum increased their seats from 2 in 2007 to in 8 in 2016 in these border regions and it isnât at the expense of Labour or other seemingly left parties or independents, it has been a traditional more republican Fianna Fail vote they have taken.
Yes but the increase in Donegal and Monaghan isnât coming a huge surge in support, instead a combination of slight support and a change to constituency boundaries. In Louth theyâve had a surge in support thanks to a high profile candidate moving into the constituency.
They were unlucky not to have about six of those seats in 2007 and the Adams factor is giving them the other two.
Iâm surprised they donât do better in Limerick City given the stronger socialist Left support that is normally evident down there.
Itâs a 400% gain on their seats in this area. Thereâs always been a traditional republican vote in these areas but that was serviced by Fianna Fail in the past, that vote has now been lost for good and the continuing point scoring on trouble issues by the likes of Fianna Fail and the other parties is only going to further alienate the republican vote in those border areas.
No itâs not. McLoughlin and Doherty didnât get elected in 2007, they topped the poll in 2011. They doubled their vote grasp in that election and that will continue to increase in these areas. Fianna Fail have a real battle on their hands to get someone in the Ulster counties. While their vote will recover in the south of the country, it will not do so around the border region in this election.
Theyâll get one in Donegal. I think SF will just get the 2 like last time. FF will fight it out with the Independents for the final seat most likely.
Nope I made the point that they barely missed out on two seats in 2007 in Donegal so it only took a âslight increase in supportâ to result in the capture of those seats.
Going from missing out in both Donegal constituencies in 2007 to having candidates top the poll in those constituencies in 2011, romping in by taking almost a quota and a half in Dohertyâs case, is a massive surge of support by any standards.
Definitely a surge in support. Definitely accelerated by the crash too and both the collapse in a FF vote and the appeal of an anti-austerity message. Similarly independents have shot up too. I think the economic/social stuff is the basis of a lot of the support and potential future growth, not the guff from @Nembo_Kid about border region repression/security. I think Pearse and Mary Lou are far stronger and credible on this stuff.
Yeah but you said there hadnât been a huge surge in support for SF in Donegal.
It may have only needed a slight increase on an already decent base to secure the seats, but Sinn Fein have had that huge surge and become the dominant party in the county.
You canât have it both ways. You argued that Sinn Feinâs 400% gain in these areas in terms of seats was only a small % gain in votes, which is false.
Sinn Fein has seen a huge increase in both their vote % and seats in the past 10 years in these areas.
There has always only been one seat in Limerick East for the left, either Kemmy or Labour going way back.
Now you could argue that since the boundary changed thereâd be less dilution by the country cousins in the east and maybe a second leftie could get in, but Noonan will probably drag OâDonnell in behind him. OâDea is a cert and Quinlivan will be the only lefty.
