Brexit hub

A i know got 1000 sterling for 1200 euro

Great article from O’Toole in the Guardian this morning. Frightening.

"What will now happen is not that the old border will come back. It’s much worse than that. The old border marked the line between neighbouring polities that had a common travel area and an intimate, if often fraught, relationship. It was a customs barrier. The new border will be the most westerly land frontier of a vast entity of more than 400 million people, and it will be an immigration (as well as a customs) barrier.The new border will be the most westerly land frontier of a vast entity of more than 400 million people, and it will be an immigration (as well as a customs) barrier.

It will, if the Brexiters’ demands to take back control of immigration to the UK are meant seriously, have to be heavily policed to keep EU migrants who have lawfully entered the Republic from moving into the UK. And it will run between Newry and Dundalk, between Letterkenny and Derry. The Dublin-Belfast train will have to stop for passport controls. (Given that the border could not be secured with army watchtowers during the Troubles, it is not at all clear how this policing operation will work.)"

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I do not know how they will do it

More than 1 million have signed the petition to rerun EU referendum

How many voted in total in the referendum.

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On Thursday 17,410,742 voted to leave the EU.

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I wouldn’t be surprised if this referendum will be re-run in 10 or 15 years and the English (as it will be by then) will humiliatingly crawl back and rejoin. A lot of the people who tipped this referendum in favour of Brexit will be dead by then and the ones who are still alive will rue their decision with hindsight.

That’s if the EU plays its cards right and the whole thing doesn’t collapse, and that’s far from a foregone conclusion.

Stanley seems like he’d make a good career for himself as a poster on TFK,
New poster boy for the ELC

The Leave campaign is so detached from real issues that such a scenario is entirely possible. But it depends on how aggressively they go after various pieces of EU legislation in the human rights and employment areas in particular. And how desperately a right wing populist government needs a distraction in the future too of course.

What is still to be determined is how long it will take for the type of simplistic right-wing, populist, xenophobic, anti-intellectual, anti-“lefty liberal PC do gooders” snake oil, the type that is so popular with idiots (including plenty on this forum) throughout the western world at the moment to be exposed as the vacuous, poisonous nonsense that it is.

But it inevitably will be.

The question is how much damage it will do before it’s exposed as such.

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The real irony of it all is that the Northern voters who want the return of a strong Welfare state have sided with its most vicious opponents against an institution that (formerly at least) advocated strongly for it.

There will be no reversal in fortunes for the likes of Burnley or Hull. In fact the day is not too far off when the call centres will seem like a relative golden age. Automation or outsourcing will take away all those jobs within a decade too.

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Out of the frying pan, into the fire springs to mind.

Europe has strayed away from its social democratic tradition but the protections it still offers will always beat being thrust into a chaotic Tory dystopia any day.

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I’m not sure that will happen. The media is so dominated by the reactionary right. The Mail and the Sun are by far the most popular daily news outlets in the UK. They can go on with the charade forever. Look at the US. The decline of the working & middle class has been going on for 40 years and the man they are turning to is Donald Trump. Historically what has put a stop to these forces? Maybe long term economic stagnation. More likely war.

What is needed are charismatic politicians who want to return to proper social democracy.

Politics is such a shallow business these days that people will vote for those who they see as charismatic and the reactionary right are great at producing people with charisma. That the message of the reactionary right is always a deeply simplistic one helps them enormously.

The message of proper social democracy is by nature a more considered, nuanced one that has to be explained ad nauseum. To do that, you need gifted communicators.

Barack Obama’s campaigns (I’m not saying they were social democratic but compared to almost all US campaigns in the last 30 or 40 years the message the message they put across was well to the left) show that it can be done.

The campaigns of Lula, Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales in South America show the same.

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Wonderful to see the pictures of the intolerant left wingers out protesting today in the UK.

Sadly democracy has not delivered the result they wanted.

:grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

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So it seems that the UK referendum is not binding at all in the way that a constitutional referendum is.

The UK Government could decide to ignore what is really only a recommendation from the people (or actually just over half of those who voted).

If the UK government don’t trigger the notification, things will remain as they are.