BREXIT thread

Boris also praised the Backstop in December 2017.

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They need to wait a day or so really until she loses the vote and they can vote on No Deal being off the table.

Surely May can’t survive this? General election or 2nd referendum are surely the only options at this stage.

True in fairness. Gove could get this through. He has played this perfectly and his message yesterday have inclusivity with Remainers was perfect.

The only thing holding him back is that he is slimey and a lot don’t trust him after what he did to Johnson.

Yeah. Lose vote (she may sneak a win yet), then an overwhelming no to no deal vote, then it becomes clear the only option is another referendum… Could happen yet.

Hard Brexit or no Brexit.

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Why couldn’t that AG just say what they wanted him to say ?

Likely but not assured still. If she can get a narrow loss on her deal today I think she’ll try it again at the deadline.

The Commons would have to unparalyse itself and there’s no sign yet of enough people doing that - there’s still no sign of something positive to wake them up from their sleepwalking.

It may be foolish to predict anything, but at this stage, if I was leaning towards the most likely outcome, I’d say a long extension.

But a long extension really requires a different government to change anything, and to do that requires an election, and there’s no sign of that either, yet at least.

May would likely have to resign quicksmart if it is a long extension.

You could have a long extension with Boris Johnson as PM, and who wants that except Boris Johnson?

You’re probably right. Her whole strategy has been to take it to the wire with her deal v no deal, if so enough MPs will balk at no deal to swallow her deal.

Her idea of narrow loss, rumour has it, is anything less than 100.
You couldnt make that witch up.

The only thing that can remove may AFAIK, is a vote of no confidence in the entire govt. The tories have, intentionally or otherwise, shot their load, and she cannot be challenged as tory leader again.

It’s mental but the whole thing has been. No other leader in the Western Parliamentary democracy could survive what she has but it’s down to the dynamics of the 1) ERG happy enough to push to a No Deal and shitting themselves about Corbyn 2) DUP shitting themselves over Corbyn 3) Tory Remainers shitting themselves about Corbyn and 4) Labour people shitting themselves about Corbyn along with them all wanted not to give up leverage.

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The first vote lost by 230, meaning 116 MPs need to switch or else a suffcient combination of switchers and abstainers, for the deal to go through.

I don’t know if May can force another vote at the last minute, presuming this fails, but if she does, I imagine it’ll be Labour MPs she targets more than Tory ones.

I honestly think that as well as wanting to blackmail this deal through, part of her strategy is to split Labour.

But that’s a high stakes game and if an extension doesn’t happen, it could end up splitting the Tories.

Who blinks first?

I don’t think may blinks. Too much reptile.

If nobody blinks, everybody sleeps.

Maybe that’s the issue. No one’s woken up yet so they can’t blink

There’s more leaks in the UK Government than in the Titanic :joy: every utterance in the cabinet is public knowledge before the meeting is over.

I don’t get the big deal about no end date for the backstop to be honest. The UK could just pull out of EU and erect a border whenever it wants. It’s not like countries aren’t constantly pulling out of treaties they’ve signed.

What in the name of fuck will May do now? It’s starting to look like Brexit might actually mean Brexit at this stage.

The EU should not offer an extension. The cunts don’t even know what they want FFS, never mind knowing how to get it. What would an extension change? A general election is the only way out of it now and that could easily make it even worse. What an absolute car crash this has been.

Fuck em, over the cliff they go.

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ERG reportedly starting to waver