BREXIT thread


#5270

I’m not so sure. I think they couldnt lean hard enough on the dup, but the erg would be happy to get any kind of brexit, and then kick treasa to touch and leave Rees mogg negotiating the actual deal, the slimy prick.


#5271

#5272

Like giving goods from the Republic preferential status in the north. A canny threat by may


#5273

That makes no sense


#5274

Mogg wouldn’t take that on, he knows his abilities, taking responsibility is not his MO.


#5275

No, but he’d be grinding the organ from Dublin


#5276


#5277

Anyone of Italy, Austria, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia could veto it.


#5278

If they did, I think there’s a decent chance that a50 would be withdrawn.


#5279

That can’t happen.


#5280

It’s more or less what they announced this morning, but it’s probably not possible


#5281

Its not. The stupid cunts still don’t realise that we are bound by European law.
The only possible way you could achieve something like that is to go tinkering with the Good Friday agreement and I’m not sure if that’s even possible.


#5282

Yes, the current deal might still be forced through – although this scenario seems to have receded. Geoffrey Cox cannot unsay his legal advice. Of course, the deal available is much inferior to membership – as even Boris Johnson has conceded. So why leave, in this context?

Whatever way people go about it, the gulf between what the ERG want and what is available will remain as an impasse, as will the situation with Ulster. The ERG’s only ‘solution’? That the EU “will blink”.

There is a reason why JR-M is still a backbencher. He is deceptively stupid.


#5283

Exactly.


#5284

Best thing that can happen tonight is that no deal is taken off the table with a majority of at least 200.
That will at least put the ERG to bed. Let her go to Brussels and get a two year extension.


#5285

Putin must be laughing while all this unfolds.

Whatever happens, he stands to gain. All this is very definitely “Operation Chaos” - chaos has been the one key aim of all this Russian meddling. Who the fuck knows where it all leads.

The true triumph for Putin is that there seems to be no way of it that doesn’t lead to chaos or mass anger.

Farage, Banks, Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Bannon, Trump, Salvini, Orban, Le Pen etc. are all connected in some way to Russia.

It’s not one giant conspiracy, it doesn’t mean they’re all Russian agents per se, but there are loads of different conspiracies of overlapping interests where the interests of cranks and crackpots ally with Putin - disaster capitalism, anti-immigration, anti-environmentalism, anti-abortionism, authoritarian geopolitics, all of them connected, and all of them benefitting from mass disinformation, and the modern media environment which makes it easy to disseminate such.

The UK media, bar an odd feature in the Guardian or on Channel 4 News, have been a bloody disgrace.

The meddling in their democracy by Russia and their British collaborators should be front and centre, yet Cadwalladr and the C4 reports on Banks and Cambridge Analytica and Aggregate IQ etc. have been effectively pissing in the wind.

Putin doesn’t have to deal with the consequences of any of this.

The anti-EU crypto-fascists, who might have to deal with the consequences, are all “hold me back” merchants. We saw that in Boris Johnson’s reaction on referendum night, and their washing their hands of the impossible negotiations they caused. Revoking Article 50 would mean they no longer have to deal with the consequences of their insanity, but could instead spin a narrative of a “glorious future denied”. Heroic failure.

In this case, Johnson would be a shoo-in for next Tory leader.

But I’d take my chances with Article 50 being revoked over the alternative if the alternative is no deal, because the consequences of no deal will be catastrophic - and a narrative will still be spun where those who caused it escape blame - the conditions might be ripe for the far right to thrive if Article 50 is revoked, but they’ll be even riper under no deal.


#5286

Yes, exactly.

My sense is that certain ERG-ers/UKIP-ers are already looking to spin non Brexit so as to get another chance at Brexit down the line. Some of them see that the only Brexit available is not worth the candle – as regards opportunity for ‘Singapore’ Britain/England. So there remains a lunge towards ‘no deal’, hoping the EU will crumble (which I doubt, given the stakes involved), or a revocation of Article 50, which would allow them to exit on ‘moral high ground’. Neither the chaos ‘no deal’ would cause nor the difficulties in negotiation 'soft Brexit’would entail allow retention of their ideological ‘purity’. Revocation is the only option, in their tiny minds, whereby this purity would be retained.


#5287

Rees mogg is more amoral than stupid, but his intelligence is blinkered by his prejudice.


#5288

Is he actually intelligent or does he just have a posh accent?


#5289

Ah, he was hothoused in Eton, went to Trinity College, Oxford (where the non bright OEs traditionally go), and became a History II.1. Hardly stellar. He is articulate but far from bright in any terms that count. Dominic Cummings is mad but far brighter.