Do you want to start this?!
No montjeu has won at the festival…
No 4 year old has won the bumper since…
No 5 year old has won the champion hurdle since…
But seriously thought, I used to put a huge emphasis on trends like that until I realised that they can just change every year. The Feltham one was bandied about by a few people 2 years ago as a reason to choose Punchestowns over Long Run. How often are horses realistically aimed at both races?
On another note, it’s shocking how little competition there’s likely to be in the Champion Chase to the top 3 in the market. Take them out and the next 4 are not even likely runners in the race. You’re down to 25/1 and 33/1 shots then and may struggle to even get 8 runners in the race. Have any of the outsiders been formally declared as having this race as their main intention? It can’t be as simple as Sizing Europe, Big Zeb and Finians filling the first 3 places without someone else pushing them close. I’m seeing it as a penalty kick for SE so the w/o market is what’s got my interest.
I think stats have a role to play in that they can profile the right type of horse for a particular race. However they must be used in conjunction with a horse’s form/ability. The most important lesson I learned last year was that if a horse is good enough i.e. Hurricane Fly, he will blow all stats out the window.
fundamental issue was that last years arkle was shite…next year should be a super queen mum
+1
I backed him at 16s after he won that race and went in again at 14 when they confirmed him for the Bumper. I thought he was seriously impressive and he’d have been a fraction of those odds had he been trained by a big stable. There’s a reason they’ve been turning down some big big offers!
I must have another look at the VT of Moscow Mannon’s last couple or runs 
Ah yeah, you’ll change your mind when Laz is on board 
was a nice run in a true run race but i still dont see him placed.
sensing a massive retraction coming here, preview in tatters before it ever comes out, MM is fp’s Lehman
Nah,
Morning Royalty is a good horse on good ground, was 2nd to King Vuvuzela at punchestown festival last year. Moscow Mannon relished heavy going on his last two starts, which is not a bad thing at all as there will be plenty of good hurdle and chases to be won with him on such ground in the future hopefully.
However, these runs are far superior to his first two runs on good ground. Maybe he has improved (have my doubts as he is a 6yo) or maybe it was down to the ground.
Lets put it this way, if it come up soft at cheltenham I would fancy him a lot more.
think Wilies Winner on Sun is his best bumper horse…
Id say champagne fever is KC. That looked a poor enough race last sunday. The latter is a serious horse when he learns to settle.
it wasnt a poor race, Fenton likes his animal 4th, he will win a decent bumper
dancer dilema 2nd ran into loosen my load in his galway debut, he should win a bumper
Jessies horse was backed from 14->5 which suggests its improved a lot
All hypothesis of course, but could turn out to be a good bumper
True only time will tell.
Quito De La Roque was taken out of the Cheltenham Gold Cup today. Bostons Angel and Jessies Dream were also withdrawn from the big race at the latest forfeit stage.
Forpadydeplasterer has been taken out of the Champion Chase, as has the novice Al Ferof.
The most notable withdrawals from the Champion Hurdle are Oscar Whisky and Unaccompanied, while certain non-runners in the World Hurdle are Celestial Halo, Restless Harry and Tidal Bay.
Gold Cup
THE FOLLOWING 8 ENTRIES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: ALBERTAS RUN (IRE), BOSTONS ANGEL (IRE), FINIAN’S RAINBOW (IRE), HALLEY (FR), HEY BIG SPENDER (IRE), JESSIES DREAM (IRE), QUITO DE LA ROQUE
(FR), WAYWARD PRINCE
Champion Chase
THE FOLLOWING 5 ENTRIES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: AL FEROF (FR), DAN BREEN (IRE), FORPADYDEPLASTERER (IRE), GHIZAO (GER), OISEAU DE NUIT (FR)
Ryanair
THE FOLLOWING 9 ENTRIES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: AERIAL (FR), FINIAN’S RAINBOW (IRE), HELL’S BAY (FR), JESSIES DREAM (IRE),
MAJESTIC CONCORDE (IRE), RARE BOB (IRE), RIVAGE D’OR (FR), THE NIGHTINGALE (FR), WOOLCOMBE FOLLY (IRE)
Champion Hurdle
THE FOLLOWING 7 ENTRIES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: BOBBY EWING (IRE), DARE ME (IRE), FLAT OUT (FR), OSCAR WHISKY (IRE), SPIRIT SON (FR), TOPOLSKI (IRE), UNACCOMPANIED (IRE)
World Hurdle
THE FOLLOWING 11 ENTRIES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: BOBBY EWING (IRE), BOBS WORTH (IRE), CANTLOW (IRE), CELESTIAL HALO (IRE), EL DANCER (GER), FLAT OUT (FR), PETTIFOUR (IRE), POUNGACH (FR), PRIMA VISTA, RESTLESS HARRY, TIDAL BAY (IRE)
Only 4 times in the past 20 years has there not been a horse at 9/1 or greater finishing in the first 3 in the Queen Mother. In recent years it’s been more likely to happen. Given that there’s prize money for the first 6 horses home it should guarantee that there’ll be at least the 8 runners needed for a payout on first 3 e/w. There has to be something outside of the top 3 to challenge them. I could make a case for Peddlers to run in this race even. Out of the 14 left entered am I right in assuming the following
Somersby - more likely to run in Ryanair
Blazing Tempo - looks more like a Ryanair horse but may skip the festival
Gauvain - more likely to go for Ryanair
Hold Fast - Queen Mother but final decision after Game Spirit
Wishfull Thinking - ??
Guavain and WT will go for champion chase as will hold fast (too high for handicap now id say)
[quote=“fenwaypark, post: 650419”]
Guavain and WT will go for champion chase as will hold fast (too high for handicap now id say)[/quote]
Hold Fast is the one I’m going to look at. Presume he’d be Rubys ride if he goes for it. If he finishes close to Sprinter Sacre tomorrow I don’t see him staying at 25’s for much longer.