Coronavirus - Here come the variants

At least the comments there are calling it out as a ridiculous story.

I had my first haircut of lockdown myself last weekend

Gardai snitching on each other.

St Gerards school teachers who got vaccines they tell other teachers

The establishment pillars are very crumbling

They need to go. A Slap I the face of frontline workers

I arranged for my eldest son to have his hair cut illegally today.

@lurking journalists - PM me for details.

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Nolan’s crystal ball in overdrive. From the IT

The State’s public health team has warned the Government that coronavirus cases could rise to 2,000 a day within four weeks, it has emerged.

In a letter to the Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly on Monday night, the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) warned that Ireland does not have the “headroom” that was available last summer when case counts were low.

The team told the Government that Ireland’s epidemiological situation remains “precarious”.

“There are a number of reasons for this. First, the level of infection is high, with a 5-day average case count of 620 cases per day and a 14-day cumulative incidence of 165 per 100,000. This is substantially higher than when restrictions were eased after previous waves of infection — approximately twice that experienced in early December 2020, and 50 times that in late June 2020.”

The second reason given was that the dominance of the more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant means that viral transmissions and the effective reproduction number “will be 30-70 per cent greater than in 2020.”

Thirdly, the reproductive number is is estimated to “already be at or above 1”.

“The high level of infection significantly increases the risk associated with any increase in social contact and reproduction number. If reproduction number increases, the number of new infections per day will rise very quickly from this high baseline.”

This was illustrated in a series of modelling figures provided to Government.

The scenarios were based on the reproductive number increasing to 1.6 from a baseline of 10, 200 or 600 cases per day.

“The high starting point of 600 cases per day means that case numbers rise rapidly to over 2,000 per day within 4 weeks. Starting at 200 cases per day, case counts increase to 700 cases per day after 4 weeks, it takes 7 weeks to reach 2,000 per day.

“Starting at 10 cases per day, even after 11 weeks case counts only increase to 500 per day. Unfortunately, the significant ‘headroom’ that was available last summer when case counts were very low isn’t available now, and any increase in transmission will have significant impacts in a short space of time,” the letter says.

Meanwhile, new modelling presented to Government on Monday night is also understood to show that if all goes well with the vaccination programme, it will begin to reduce risk from May 2021 and suppress cases through June and into August.

Mortality is expected to radically decrease, with 11 deaths per 1,000 cases in the most recent wave dropping to two. However, until there is greater vaccination, the effect will not be as pronounced on hospitalisations, which will drop from 50 to 30, per 1,000 diagnosed cases, with admissions to ICU falling from five to four.

This is because while deaths have been concentrated in the over-70s, hospitalisations and ICU rates are more evenly spread in other cohorts, which are not yet vaccinated.

Sources said that projections were for between 80,000 and 500,000 cases between April 5th and the end of September, depending on the level of socialisation that takes place.

It shows that vaccines will reduce hospitalisations more quickly than numbers of infections and cases. Government was warned that the next eight weeks represent a “critical window” where any significant increase in indoor social mixing would give rise to a wave like that in October last year or this January.

I’m now irate and I’m about to go to bed.

Grrrrrrr

Only another 123 days to go lads.

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My next door neighbour runs a small salon out the back of her place. She’s had a few customers in and out over past few weeks. I was thinking of asking for a trim. She could become my Nicola cc @flattythehurdler

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Newspapers largely just reproduce NPHET’s advice, as if they’re PR companies sending out a press release. It’d be good if they robustly critiqued what they’re saying too.

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GRA STATEMENT
Donnelly must explain why NIAC have
ignored the risk of policing the pandemic

30.03.2021

Many GRA members will be dismayed by the decision of the National Immunisation Advisory Council (NIAC) to ignore the risks involved in policing the pandemic, GRA president Frank Thornton has said.

The Minister for Health must explain the circumstances in which this decision was made, he added.
Garda Thornton said: “How has NIAC only now drawn the conclusion that gardaí are not at risk? Was there policing competence involved in the decision?

“Was the Department of Justice and the Garda medical officer consulted? Did NIAC have regard for the employers’ duty of care? These and other questions must be answered by the Minister for Health.

“Without consultation or transparency, this drastic change in policy will see our members continue to be exposed to a high-risk working environment.
“Our concerns over the health and safety of our members has never been as high.

“We have continuously stated the elderly and most vulnerable in society along with frontline health care workers are priority and our position remains the same.

“Members of An Garda Siochana should be categorised with other frontline workers including those in health care given our unique role in the fight against Covid.

“Gardaí will not forget the way we have been treated during this crisis. We are the second pillar of the response to the pandemic and we are now being told that we are no more at risk than someone who can work from home.

“Gardaí do not have this option and when situations arise where there is a heightened risk of Covid infection, we are called to sort it out.

“No-one else in Irish society is expected to wrestle with people who may be infected or refuse to wear masks or are in home quarantine because they are coming from a high-risk country.

“The treatment of members of An Garda Siochana is shocking. We have endured so much, given so much, and revived little or nothing from this Government.”

ENDS

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Fran the Man is back doing personal training classes on the green near my house, just over from his premises. Time to report all these rule breakers if we want to get back to normality in the next few years.

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Right enough now that I think of it. None of my three governments have done anything to reassure me.

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You must be delighted having three governments to give out about :grinning:

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Fairly clear NPHET know if you can avoid hospitals and nursing homes you have little or no chance of catching Covid.

Has any Garda caught Covid wrestling a suspect to the ground or flailing at one with a baton.

I’m sure we will hear examples, hopefully they publicly announce they are not police the measures

Any chance the GRA would question why a load of office bound Garda employees got the vaccine ahead of “frontline” garda while they are at it?

Tough night lads. Off to bed with you all there now

A masterstroke by the authorities changing the priority order for the vaccines. We’re all turning on each other while the real villains skulk away into the night.

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Ah! begod! Surely you haven’t nailed it there! So @Glenshane wants MORE government! 'tis the oul “the lady doth protest too much”. closet stuff.

I’m here shaking my head at how much the Irish government have messed this up…it’s unbelievable