Why is it unbelievable?
What in the history of Irish governments would lead you to believe they could handle it better?
Maybe if Cowen was still Taoiseach the pints would be still be flowing.
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The dam of public patience has already broken
Community transmission is going to remain high until mass vaccination makes an impression
Michael McDowell
The official but âanonymous Government sourceâ (the AGS) had spoken on the outlook for lifting the lockdown well before the Cabinet had its meeting to consider the matter. Most people in Leinster House have a very good idea who the AGS is â widely reputed to be a very ambitious Minister who spends an inordinate amount of time talking to the media off the record. The AGS even told one newspaper this week that the Cabinet had recently failed to adequately dampen down public expectations.
And so it has become clear that the plan for the Easter holidays is to have no plan â in case any coherent roadmap would be misinterpreted by the impatient public as an optimistic omen that the end of lockdown is in sight.
We do know that the health establishment is constantly conducting rolling public opinion surveys, and that helpful parts of that research are fed out to the media from time to time. We are all being monitored carefully.
And you donât have to be Prof Dolores Cahill to feel a little uneasy about that. The public mood is not merely monitored; it is to some extent created. Media advertisements âbrought to you by the Government of Irelandâ or by State-funded or State-owned agencies in support of solidarity serve twin purposes â they subsidise cash-starved (and sometimes unchallenging) media and they feed into public opinion to be surveyed, reported and fed into policymaking.
Our friend the AGS also plays a major part in mood creation. âGrimâ was the adjective given to the Nphetâs current analysis in âoff the recordâ briefings by the AGS. Can we see the grim analysis, please?
We are, we are told, at a tipping point. The next few weeks are critical. So critical, in fact, that even to inform the public that they could plan for a family holiday in Ireland for July or August would be extremely risky, as it might be seen as reason to relax a little in the meantime. Even if we are to be guided by data rather than by dates, it must be possible to give people a hint as to whether such plans can or should be made.
Figures for hospitalisations, ICU treatment and mortality have improved but mathematical modellers in Nphet are spooked by community transmission rates and R-numbers which remain stubbornly high. But should they be surprised?
We are constantly told that the public is hugely compliant with lockdown regulations. And that is what people may tell pollsters. But it seems that many people apply the regulations rather flexibly to themselves. Some building operations have quietly recommenced. Road traffic is picking up and road blocks wonât prevent that.
The truth is that the dam of public patience has already cracked and broken. With longer evenings and warmer weather, younger generations have taken to the outdoors. Walks in the parks or down the Grand Canal or along the Dodder valley tell me their own tale. Reopening the schools and associated activity must be a driver of community transmission too. The virus doesnât distinguish radically between 17-year-olds and 19-year-olds.
Community transmission is going to remain high until mass vaccination makes an impression. Seasonal aspects of the pandemic and of social behaviour are obvious and irresistible. You simply cannot drive the population back into their own houses for May and June. We have to plan accordingly.
Very little media coverage
One interesting issue has received very little media coverage in Ireland â that of non-hospital treatments for Covid-19. Are patients with confirmed symptoms actually treated with available drugs to reduce the chances of their being admitted to hospital? Or is the only conventional, non-hospital treatment a combination of advised isolation and paracetamol? Maybe this issue is being addressed. But we should know. If a new wave threatens, it may be very important.
There are risks to any relaxation in the lockdown. But there are known risks in prolonging it too. Those risks are not just social and economic. There are real probabilities that prolonging the lockdown will cost lives through reduction in access to diagnosis and treatments for non-Covid conditions. There is a certainty that prolonging the lockdown means damaging the social, economic, psychological and psychiatric wellbeing and fabric of our community.
We have to hope that vaccination is driven forward as fast as possible â seven days a week (not five). If you want to use the word âgrimâ, it may be more applicable to the administrative efficiency of some vaccination centres. One very credible volunteer medical practitioner vaccinator gave me a quite depressing account of the underperformance, inefficiencies and delays he witnessed at a Dublin centre recently.
The HSE has to treat vaccination as an emergency. Even if supplies are limited, the case for using them as quickly as possible is unanswerable.
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Who is the AGS Fagan?
Harris youâd assume.
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Remarkable how rarely ambition correlates with ability
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McDowell is one of the very few coherent OIUTF advocates out there.
Without knowing a whole lot about his time in politics and from just reading his articles I find mcdowell a real straight shooterâŚa lot of people really hate him though âŚ
And lads ran him out of public life.
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Varadkar Iâd assume?
His articles recently have been great. However heâs and arsehole and was an incompetent minister.
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Varadkar has already fulfilled his ambition.
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I think RTĂ tv reported last night that hospital admissions were up 29 yesterday. Think it was prime time but might have been the news. Struck me as wrong then and even more so now.
Can we get Glas to write another letter?
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he didnt get elected?
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That was a drawback, Iâm not gonna lie.
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But the ICU number was down three yesterday.
McDowell has had an excellent pandemic.
Has anyone noticed that his articles arenât appearing as prominently on the Irish Times website anymore? I had to click the opinion section to see it. Are they trying to silence him? Albeit likely on the hook for an article a week.
The Irish Times editorial is following the official government line to stay locked down.
No shame in that. Was operating in one of the most hotly contested constituencies in the country.
I lived across the road from him for a number of years. The constant Garda patrol probably saved me the night I left the key in the car door. Kaiser 
Another Tour de France from Mickey McD.