1- Houlihan must go
2- Stand on nphet and push them back into the corner, they have had their time
3- The only immediate virus issues are getting vaccination done
4- The only medium to long term one is the elephant in the room, how long will the vaccine remain effective?
5- dont let nphet have control of deciding things on #4
4 Likes
He has modelled 2000 cases a day with benefit of vaccine roll out at an R rate of a .1 > upper extremity of where he believes the R Rate resides at the moment.
And with that a doubling of ICU numbers in Mid June of current ICU levels with another .1 of an increase to R number on top of that. Obviously the red line below is what the govt saw and probably baulked at.
Of course the opening of walk in centres in some of the most socially deprived places in Dublin will be a great help to him in realising the numbers in the first extract.
He has factored in vaccine effectiveness but probably on a very very conservative level. Certainly not around the .28% transmissibility levels currently seen in Irish nursing homes. Even that .28% transmissability is probably exacerbated by institutionalised setting not really replicated anywhere else in the wider community. In reality what NPHET would want is nothing to change over course of next 8 weeks and copy and paste the reopening done last summer. There will come a stage evidently from his workings next Autumn when a critical mass of people are vaccinated but there will still be an exposed part of the population and he will model the consequences of this. What government decide to do with this information will shape the country for many years to come far beyond what is coming down the track at present.
I would be shocked if we breached 1,000 cases a day from here until late Autumn unless of course they want to start testing vaccinated people.
5 Likes
I think their misstep on leaking a proposed 43 extra countries will prove a huge blunder. A lot of senior ministers will be fuming. Pascal Donohue, head of the eurogroup, will have people asking him what Ireland is playing at, why are EU countries finding out in media from a leak rather than being consulted with.
1 Like
We have them on the run. Keep up the revolution folks.
2 Likes
There’s that yoke from Hugo’s Restaurant whinging again on the News at 5.30 about the lack of a roadmap for hospitality as part of yesterday’s announcement. She gets some amount of airtime.
2 Likes
Could Fergal say that in English?
I bet the Yanks will be in contact as well.
The U.K. were supposed to provide an update to theirs yesterday but there hasn’t been a peep.
They were talking about France last week because some health body wanted it, but Hancock quickly ran away from it as they know the implications would be enormous.
The delay is funny in itself. These variants are so important but they wait ages to introduce border safety policies. It’s the most blatant made up on the hoof policy by both countries that the leaders of both would like you to give them credit for but not actually implement properly.
1 Like
My Consulate has received a few emails…
Your man Thomas Ryan was hoping the 5km travel ban would be moved to 2km the other day 
1 Like
About 40 kids on the green earlier playing ball. Love to see it
2 Likes
The Somalian Zero Coviders.
Any mention of the new French lockdown here… Schools closes for 3 weeks and everyone must be indoors by 7pm
Fake news
boys here only think they’ve been locked down and whinging non-stop about it.
5 Likes
The french won’t behave and take their vaccine. They need to be told.
1 Like
True for you. If you told some of the ignoramus in this country abiut the french lockdown they would scoff at it without ever after being beyond the local town bounds
Sure the french never venture further than the local patisserie, boulangerie and toboggonist. They’ll not be bothered.
3 Likes
10km limit for travel as well I think. For a month.
1 Like