Western countries went for lockdown because they saw it "workedâ in China, and were in a blind panic in March 2020 when it finally dawned on them that a highly infectious air borne virus could actually travel between countries. Never mind the fact that a Chinese style lockdown could never be implemented in a western country, and because a western style lockdown does not stop infection spread you have to stay locked down forever or until enough people are vaccinated. That was never going to happen, not in a western country where most people have zero fear of their government, and a significant number have contempt.
The only thing western lockdowns achieved was maintaining a huge percentage of the overall population susceptible to infection in the March to late summer timeframe, who were always going to be prone to infection when you try and open up. We managed to keep that 80+% of the population safe from a mild disease, while failing utterly to protect the most vulnerable in care homes. We did nothing to boost the overall health of the population, actually the opposite, cancelling cancer screenings and other non Covid procedures, annual check ups, etc.
The result of all this was going into the most dangerous season for respiratory diseases with a large majority of people who had no immunity to a new virus. A virus that was always going to spread wildly once people started spending more time indoors and socialized more for the holidays. How do you propose stopping people spending time indoors and socializing? Humans, whoâs primary behavior is socializing.
On balance focused protection was the right approach imo, put your efforts into protecting those that are most at risk. Why the fuck are there still outbreaks in nursing homes, almost a year later? If that doesnât convince you of the utter incompetence of governments, nothing will.
Lockdown is a blunt instrument but there are no viable alternatives that have been shown to work. âIsolate and protect the vulnerableâ is just simplistic raimeis from the likes of Sunetra Gupta and Anders Tegnell. Sweden tried it and even with a relatively compliant population it failed. So the choice for western governments was either the half arsed lockdown or the UK and US approach of let it rip.
The US and UK did not let it rip, thatâs just a lie and one you keep repeating. Our lockdown in California was stricter than Europe. We were the first in the US with a stay at home order, and while restrictions were eased somewhat in late summer, we were back in strict lockdown by early December. Bars for example were never opened. Yet, we have (relatively) horrendous numbers at present. But lockdowns work right?
There is no statistical difference between Europe and the US in terms of deaths per capita. there are some outliers, mostly countries in Europe / states into the US that are sparsely populated.
Deaths per million:
Countries that you claim let it rip, UK and US: 1,245, 1,188.
Countries that you claim did better by having half assed lockdowns:
Italy: 1,388. Czech Rep: 1,293. Spain: 1,131. France: 1,056.
It doesnât look that different does it? In fact it would suggests it made no difference what was done in these respective countries, the outcome is the same. Similar numbers of Covid deaths, all having similar problems now.
The issue is incompetent government. The approach of focused protection may be the right one, but in March 2020 the ability of governments to actually implement it was probably close to zero. But here we are a year later and we seem no better at protecting the most vulnerable. So they went with half assed lockdowns, the easy approach. But one that also doesnât work, just kicks the can a bit down the road. Well, weâve reached the end of that road and have found what it entails.
Itâs entirely likely that given the constraints faced, no approach actually âworksâ, and the number of Covid deaths per capita will be the same in all western countries. Itâs definitely the way itâs trending.
To suggest that numbers would be no worse if there was no lockdown is just ludicrous. The UK and US were lead by headbangers with interest only in self preservation. Their numbers could and should be a lot lower.
The numbers in Italy, Spain, Czech Rep, and France are the same as the UK and US. Is that because they are led by headbangers, and their numbers should be much better? If your claimed let it rip approach in the UK and US is no worse than the lockdown approach in these other countries, what was the point of lockdowns?
There is no evidence that western style lockdowns saved lives. Every study that has been done, and there are many, points to voluntary changes in peopleâs behavior as the dominant factor that impacts the spread of the disease, hospitalizations and deaths. Mandated measures like stay at home orders have no effect, as people are still allowed to wander into shops, pick up the virus, and take it home.
Well in the case of NPHET, there were reports about a nursing home in Kerry from HIQA being totally Covid non compliant in June. It is unclear as to what was done but what we know is that HIQA have members on NPHET. Said nursing home was then riddled with it in October, with the HSE having to take over. I have looked at NPHET Board minutes and I would have thought a flick through reports on the place where 50% of your biggest problem (i.e. mortality) occurs but I donât see much mention of it amongst the army of them who dial in on ZoomâŚ
We know that fortnightly testing began in nursing homes in June, which NPHET examined on increasing to weekly in October.
The HSE came up with a plan in November for NPHET, which they endorsed.
3 days ago this was posted, so clearly it hasnât started yet.
Herr Holohan has said previously that it doesnât matter what we do on nursing homes so long as there is community transmission, so I donât think theyâve ever been in a mad rush.