Coronavirus - Here for life (In high population density areas)

[Copper_pipe]

I got tested today through work.

Not a pleasant experience.

[Biff_Egan]

[TreatyStones]

@Julio_Geordio

Pints pints pints

The good thing about going so high is that 500 cases a day will seem like nothing.

[johnnysachs]

Thats exactly it. There was a time last summer when 20 cases a day was worthy of a few decades of the rosary. We will never reach those figures of early January again.

[Bandage]

@Bandage

I was talking to an actuary today, as I do most days. It was actually she/her that pointed out the ridiculous nature of Dr Holohan’s comment last night. If they’re only testing symptomatic folk and there’s a 25% positivity rate then it’s not likely that you have Covid if you have the sniffles. In fact there’s a 3x bigger chance that you don’t have it. But how and ever.

She was doing some back of a cookery book calculations earlier and her assumptions were that most people would have stopped mixing from 26 December at the latest. Restrictions tightened again from that date with bars/restaurants having closed just before Christmas, (pre) Christmas Day visits done, travel outside county banned so no new year’s jaunts etc etc. So the big surge we saw either side of the new year was likely to be due to contacts up to Christmas Day. Anyone that got it after Christmas Day would likely only give it to (some) immediate family and it wouldn’t be passed onto the wider community.

In essence, the spread up to and including Christmas Day was likely to be substantial but the R number should be manageable again. So while hospitalisations are likely to grow for a while due to the lag in people getting sick, we might have reached peak infections/cases already.

Please comment @TreatyStones, @Copper_pipe.

Just looking at the daily swab data, and this piece of analysis from 2 weeks ago is looking extremely robust.

[Thomas_Brady]

When are current restrictions to be revisted? We’ll be locked down till end of February I presume regardless of case numbers.

[Biff_Egan]

The beauty of the NPHET/Govt restrictions is that unlike in Spain where there are clear metrics around hospitalisations/ICU, here the restrictions are altered depending on Twitter, Claire Byrne show polls and whether Leo or Tony has the whip hand.

[TreatyStones]

@Thomas_Brady

When are current restrictions to be revisted? We’ll be locked down till end of February I presume regardless of case numbers.

I think there is some sort of review pencilled in for the 25th of this month, but there will be no relaxation until the end of February. It’ll take until the end of month for us to get below 1,000 cases per day and then another 4 weeks to get down around the 100/200 mark.

[Lazarus]

So in conclusion you are saying lockdowns work?

[Tierneevin1979]

It’s mainly related to skin pigmentation, higher melanin levels reduce production of vitamin D. In the US for example, 40% of the population are deficient in vitamin D, whereas 80% of African Americans are. A fair skinned person can get their recommended daily Vit D from 30 min of sun exposure, whereas those with darker skin need 2 hours.

[Arthur]

What jobs were they doing to earn this very good coin?

[glasagusban]

Third lockdown around has really rattled a few lads and sorted the men from the boys. There’s a few fellas have gone hysterical altogether, trying to sound reasonable but it’s all pissing and moaning and whinging. Was waa waa not enough people are dying waa waa waa there’s no evidence for masks waa waa waa vitamin D. They can’t hack it at all godhelpus.

[glenshane]

@glasagusban

Third lockdown around has really rattled a few lads and sorted the men from the boys. There’s a few fellas have gone hysterical altogether, trying to sound reasonable but it’s all pissing and moaning and whinging. Was waa waa not enough people are dying waa waa waa there’s no evidence for masks waa waa waa vitamin D. They can’t hack it at all godhelpus.

In other words your partner is still on full pay

[balbec]

2001 cases, 93 deaths. Close to 100 @TheUlteriorMotive

[Copper_pipe]

2001 case

93 deaths (89 in January, 3 in December, 1 under investigation)

[Lazarus]

Oh Lordy

[iron_mike]

[iron_mike]

@glenshane . What have you got to say for yourself?

[carryharry]

@TheUlteriorMotive

In fact science and studies say kids viral load is so low they cannot transmit it in any meaningful way.

Wtf?

Tell this to parents infected by their school going children.

You seem to be unravelling, mate.

[TheUlteriorMotive]

Nobody knows who infected parents? That’s not in any study

When stratified by age into the following categories, namely, 0-12 years, 12-17 years, 18-29 years, 30-49 years, 50-59 years, 60-69 years, 70-79 years, and over 79 years, the study demonstrates that advancing age is linked to a higher percentage of positives and higher viral loads. The younger patients were much more likely to have Ct values above 30.

About a third of children below 12 had Ct above 30 but only half of other patients. Median Ct values were 4-fold higher in the youngest group compared to the oldest, which corresponds to a 16-fold reduction in viral load.