Its pretty amazing the levels of scrutiny a set of accounts a company or business can be subjected to. With NPHET we have a stats guy from Maynooth modelling numbers that are open to no scrutiny that can keep many of the aforementioned businesses and companys closed for a couple of years. Taken at face value. It is truly galling. We have to somehow get away from NPHET now and we need some other opinions or international experts because the way I see it is these lads have lost the plot. How could any rational person say we could see even peak deaths above Jan/Feb with over 4m vaccine doses , 42% fully vaccinated adults, in the middle of summer and an abundance of international evidence that suggests otherwise. It is frightening the level of discourse in this country.
But Scotland more than doubled their cases to 3k in three days with a higher vaccination rate. Itâs not hard to see how that could reach 7k soon. They have a similar population to us.
McConkey makes a fair point that at some stage an argument about risk is going to have to be had.
But that point is still a few weeks down the line at least. Things are moving quicker than anticipated. I would not expect pubs to be shut any later than September 1st, at the absolute latest. Vaccines work. Vaccines are the key. The more people vaccinated, the quicker we get opening.
Bottle had tonight in hotel bar that is 100% safe from covid.
Yes womanâs drink I know, I had lock in last night until 2, safe from covid also.
1500 in hospital? Isnât that what matters. The vulnerable are vaccinated who will end up there? Or will people in hospital get covid and have listed as a hospital figure? Seriously mate if they dmsaid a 1000 cases a day I would say its far fetch but possible. Its okay to call out this bullshit modelling and maintain your stance on restrictions.
Donât worry our Taoiseach will stand up to NPHET, and tell them heâs the sheriff in town.
Iâm not using NPHET modelling about what I think would happen if pubs open. Iâm using my own intuition based on whatâs happened in the past, what I think would happen with this variant, and what is actually happening elsewhere.
I promised my family that I will never die. I am fully intent on keeping that promise for as long as Iâm alive.
But Iâm not asking on your opinion Iâm asking you do you think that this modelling by nphet is ridiculous. Suggesting that over 14% of the population will catch a virus on the next 3 months that current 40% are fully vaccinated against and around 60% have at least 1 jab. Not withstanding record numbers beogm vaccinated daily?
I propose a permanent lockdown. Build a supermacs every 5km and add a drive thru. Let the mental health of the nation deteriorate to âOne flew over the cuckoos nestâ levels and then grant everyone a yearâs subscription of premium youtube to become vloggers on âEmbroidering the face of Mary McEvoy onto a throw suitable to save you from a summer breezeâ, â1000 ways to make âSt Bridgetâs Crossâ and âThe analysis of tonightâs Angelusâ and similar topics that would raise a look whilst you supped your tae.
Itâs highly unlikely but theoretically possible in a mass spread environment with a variant of increased transmissibility. Itâs a worst case scenario among several models.
A much worse case scenario than was anticipated, with a new variant emerging, happened when we opened on December 1st.
Therefore we should pay heed this time. If enough evidence emerges that the new variant is not causing the damage that is feared - and we should know that within a month - then we can reconsider the situation.
There is not enough evidence right now to open pubs in the way we would be doing it if we went ahead.
They need to move heaven and earth to get vaccines out to people. Limerick Races can go for a start.
Without a doubt. The study on the mixing of vaccines and the massive boost of immunity that comes from doing that is very encouraging, both in terms of protecting people and in terms of practicality.
Iâm sure there is a big difference between their worst case and yours. Do you think outrageous predictions like that will damage the public mood for support of restrictions?
NPHET bring a range of different models from best case to worst case. They are clearly leaked by government.
Nobody here is any position to say what can happen or canât. These things are theoretically possible. Few people thought on December 1st that Ireland would end up in the situation we did by Christmas.
In Argentina, theyâve been having an outbreak which proportionally is about four times the size of ours at Christmas.
Uncertainty and complexity are the key concepts here with this variant. The early evidence looks promising as regards the effect vaccines have on it, but itâs not enough. We have to at least see how Scotland plays out. Theyâre effectively our guinea pig.
Any idea why the Scots have such a surge compared to rest of UK, around 2X the UK average I think? Most likely the football Iâd imagine, like ourselves major tournaments are infrequent.
The good news is the UK has seen no surge in deaths with itâs cases so far, nor has Scotland. As of today 200 in hospital in Scotland with recent Covid, 20 in ICU. They have 2.7 million fully vaccinated which is a bit ahead of Ireland I imagine.
Morning Ireland talking as if allowing vaccinated only in pubs is now the plan⌠fucking hell.
I can literally remember a spokesman for an old personâs lobby group saying that we couldnât let young people out and about because it would create an apartheid society. Now the same people are lobbying for increased privileges for vaccinated old people.
The usual kite flying or are they genuinely going down this road?
8,000 cases a day seems very grim. We got nowhere near that in the middle of winter