How much do you think cases would rise? Starting from a baseline of 350 on July 5th.
I agree in that I think that deaths probably wouldnât move that much as the vaccination programme progresses, but neither can I be sure about that, because we are playing with a somewhat unknown quantity in the Delta variant. Deaths are not the only variable to consider. It would be a large scale experiment on our younger people to allow mass spread with this new variant.
Sure opening indoor pubs might give an outlet to people, but for how long? And for how long would people stay off the PUP? How long before it would have to come back?
Elderly people are no longer cocooning now because theyâve been fully vaccinated (well at least those not in their 60s, if you count that as elderly) and case numbers are currently manageable. If case numbers soared, their vaccination status doesnât change but their perception of risk does - perception of risk would soar and thus they are more likely to start voluntarily shutting themselves away from society again.
I think a backslide into fresh restrictions would damage public morale much more than waiting a reasonably short period where we would have a much better chance of not having to backslide.
Indoor bars have been open here for the last two weeks and I believe we were the last state to do so. Florida, Texas etc. were much earlier with predictions of disaster.
Florida had 15 deaths yesterday, California 7 and Texas 4, populations 21 million, 29 million and 40 million. Cases are around 1 - 1.5k pre day in each state. The evidence suggests you can safely open indoor bars and dining once the vulnerable are vaccinated.
Thereâs lots of media noise about delta, and it is getting more common, but there appears to be no evidence of higher virulence even if it is more transmissible. The people getting infected and sick now are largely young and healthy.
I donât see that increased PCR testing happening. I donât see a massive increase in rapid testing happening. I think if pubs are to open at some point over the next number of months, those things should happen, and they have to be on an above board, on site basis, not self testing. But I donât see them happening. Nor do I see any focus on ventilation in pubs happening. Or being asked for vaccination status at the door. If pubs open, I see it being on pretty much the same basis as before. Which I think is asking for trouble. We might get away with it if we wait until enough people are vaccinated. I expect that at some point, probably in about a monthâs time, the Government will disavow the public health advice and open, probably from the day after the August bank holiday.
This is essentially a manifesto for staying under the bed indefinitely.
This virus will always have variants with changed dynamics. By definition they will always be âsome unknown quantityâ. Weâve already seen the cycle several times.
We will have to learn to manage risk and live with an acceptable level of it. Otherwise weâll be having these conversations for a long long time yet.
Exactly. The fact that due to an appalling health service that canât manage the common cold every winter, we are being forced to endure restrictions indefinitely. Worse health service in Europe = Longest restrictions in Europe and on and on weâll go
Well unfortunately we come back to the pesky fact that this affects the whole world. And thus the future of humanity depends on worldwide vaccine take up being as high as possible. If in some part of the world with low vaccine take up or low vaccine availability, a supervariant emerges, we do again have a problem. The truth is that we need to drive this thing as close to eradication worldwide as is possible. Vaccines are the primary tool for that but not the only tool. Mass testing is one other tool. But we canât rule out future lockdowns. If we donât drive this thing as close to eradication as possible, we will all be living with perpetual uncertainty on some level.
@Cheasty had a very bad weekend when he discovered that 96% vaccine efficacy on hospitalisations doesnât mean that 4% of vaccinated people go to hospital but now heâs coming back strong as the king of the statistics.
It isnât if those getting infected are not getting seriously ill, as they build immunity which is good. Almost all known respiratory viruses over time evolve to being more transmissible and less virulent, think the 200 types of common cold, none of which are virulent (but were at some point in history). What is worse for the public health situation is not building immunity, one of the results of extended lockdowns.
Thereâs an interesting dynamic at play where severe cases of Covid encountered more people (in hospitals and nursing homes) than mild cases, which may have changed the normal evolution of this virus.
Vaccination is and should be the primary way of building immunity. By far the best thing for the public health situation is not having large numbers of people getting ill with something which has very limited treatment available. If it can be demonstrated reliably that large numbers of people are not getting seriously ill, then the calculation changes. The time for that calculation should not be now. It might be in six to eight weeks. The reason so many people are against this wait is because the next six to eight weeks comprise the peak summer season. This is very reminiscent of the pressure to have a âmeaningful Christmasâ.