Wouldnt know a ewe from a hogget. Or anything beyond the pale
Interesting thread on the model development. One thing which seems to stand out is that for some reason they havenāt modelled out what a trajectory looks like if their recommendations were implemented.
1 Like
Sure continually itās the OIUTF crew who have displayed no understanding of statistics, of basic maths. This goes back well over a year when yis were cheerleading the clueless Sunetra Gupta and Michael Levitt.
Yis have been clueless the whole way.
Posts like this are genuinely laughable. Theyāre cuckoo.
Thereās no arguing with this stuff.
The government are terrified of opening and people dying. Nphet are terrified of opening and people not dying. Lockdowns are the result.
4 Likes
Still no raw data for us to run on excel or minitab
Oh thereās loads to argue.
Iād be very much in favour of a Catherine Zeta Jones variant spreading.
1 Like
A zinger. Great post
How many tests do you think we need per day?
I think as regards events yes you would have to test widely, probably everybody.
But I also think if antigen testing is to be rolled out is has to be on the basis of controlling case load in the population at large, which requires an enormous investment.
Question for @Cheasty in terms with of COVID19 deaths in this country and I ask on good faith as your dad died from COVID. My mother left Milford to go home last Tuesday week and was with us for 9 days until last Thursday when she returned to Milford in that time time span numerous people were in the house fully vaccinated half vaccinated unvaccinated etc. When she returned to Milford last Thursday they did a PCR test on her which was negative on Friday. If it was positive she would have been regarded as a COVID death she was about to die anyway so my question is how many people have actually died that would have died anyway?
Iād suspect itās a model run in R or similar.
Versus the even more enormous investment associated with closing and destroying large parts of the economy.
If NPHET was doing itās job it would have assessed Delta variant risk weeks ago and been working on a workable plan to deal with reopening. It didnāt do that and like a lazy student threw in a one sentence idea on what to do that was not fit for purpose, had no detail associated with it and was not properly constructed.
3 Likes
But weāve already been through twice before, three times if youāre to take the Levitts and Guptas into account.
We get told a rise in cases is nothing to worry about, āitās the young getting itā. Then we get told hospitalisations arenāt rising. Then hospitalisations do rise. We get told, thereās nothing to worry about, the health service is fine. Then case numbers explode, hospitalisations continue to rise, then explode, followed by deaths.
Now hopefully the link between cases and hospitalisations and especially deaths does prove to have to weakened this time. But we donāt know how much because weāre dealing with an unknown quantity.
The OIUTF are telling us āgambleā. No thanks.
The investment going into shuttering the economy and other Covid costs is already enormous. If a large-scale testing program assists in mitigating that then the cost-benefit surely writes itself. However thereād have to be buy-in from public health that it would be deployed to accelerate opening of sections of society, something that clearly has been absent.
I donāt know exactly, but in the fallow periods for Covid deaths we werenāt getting these type of deaths. The excess deaths figure I guess is a reasonably good guide.
As I suspected, code is in R.
Itās all here
The preprint of the paper describing model is here
1 Like
Iād be open to a large scale testing plan, but it really does have to be properly large scale. Anything below what the Danes are doing and you just know itāll be half assed. And it has to be free.
The only E.U. member state that will not be ready
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0630/1232241-covid-ireland-figures/
The European Commissioner for Justice has said that Ireland is the only European Union member state that will not be ready to comply with the EU Digital Covid Certificate for travel when it comes into effect tomorrow
2 Likes
If we limited the speed limit at 70km/hr we would surely save a few hundred lives a year. Should we do that?
I am sure that it could be possible.
1 Like
Tony and the lads have the shits up them all with Delta.