And there you have it ladies and gentleman. In black and white.
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Levitt has a Nobel prize based on computer modelling work, but obviously your knowledge of statistics would be better than his. His was one voice and he was wrong on some things and right on others, just like all scientists. He was right that mortality was overestimated early on and the disease was not much of a threat to younger demographics. Most importantly he was not involved in setting policy, nor was Gupta. Guptaâs group gave an alternate set of models to Fergusonâs and as it turns out their average model is much closer to reality. You are willing to give Ferguson and now NPHET the benefit of the doubt because they had multiple models and people shouldnât focus on the worst case, yet Gupta did the same thing and you castigate her based on her most optimistic model.
But the bigger point is the people actually in charge of advising the response were most wrong, and they are the people that matter. The WHO were claiming in mid January that Covid was not transmitting human to human, even though it was identified as a SARS virus weeks earlier and people were dropping like flies in Wuhan. They advised not to restrict travel or close borders, in fact they still hold this belief. They still havenât accepted that itâs airborne. If you want to blame someone for almost 4 million deaths start there. In mid February the much loved Dr Fauci was telling Americans they had nothing to worry about and should go on cruises. Which voices were more harmful in retrospect, WHO/Fauci or Levitt/Gupta? Most people have never heard of Levitt or Gupta.
The reality is there is no difference between the outcomes in almost all western countries, save a few like Norway and Finland who closed their borders early and have only ever opened them to each other. With Sweden on one end of the spectrum in terms of minimum restrictions and Norway on the other end, it has to be said Sweden had no worse an outcome than the average in Europe without destructive lockdowns. Lockdowns have been a massive failure and have done enormous economic damage, which people like you say is irrelevant as funding for services like health care comes from the magic money tree. Sadly there is no magic money tree, and our children and their children will be paying the price for decades for massive government incompetence.
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Lockdown forever.
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Heâs pulling numbers out of his arse but wow - amazed heâs let the mask slip - it never ends using his logic.
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roy meadowsesque
What does 95% COVID-19 vaccine efficacy really mean? - The Lancet Infectious Diseases
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I couldnât give a flying fig what âcredentialsâ Levitt or Gupta have. Theyâve been as credible during this pandemic as the Fat Emperor, who is about as credible as Fr. Neil Horan doing an Irish jig in the middle of Silverstone racetrack as Michael Schumacher bombs towards him at 200 miles an hour.
I also couldnât give a flying fig about your Fox News inspired rants about Fauci and the WHO. Take it to whatever rathole Trump supporters congregate online in these days.
Oh, and yes, there is such a thing as a magic money tree. Itâs one of the biggest lies ever perpetrated by failed trickle down economics that there isnât.
If you are looking for evidence that lockdowns donât work, consider that you still support them and will continue to support them as long as there is any risk of anyone getting Covid. You are the perfect contrarian indicator.
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Sunetra Gupta knows a lot more about it than you.
In general the research saw a correlation between disease severity and lasting immune response. Over 90 percent of asymptomatic cases showed no measurable immune response six months later. A quarter of symptomatic cases lacked lasting immunity six months after infection.
A little more worrying, however, was the finding that very few serum samples from infected subjects mounted antibody responses against newer variants of the virus. Dold says this seems to suggest those infected with the original SARS-CoV-2 strain in 2020 may have little protection from some of the newer variants beginning to circulate.
âOur concern is that these people may be at risk of contracting COVID-19 for a second time, especially with new variants circulating,â says Dold. âThis means that it is very important that we all get the COVID vaccine.â
But why would immunity generated by a vaccine be any different from natural infection?
âThe honest truth is, we donât know,â says Sabra Klein, an expert in immunology from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. âThe immune system of people who have been infected has been trained to target all these different parts of the virus called antigens. Youâd think that would provide strongest immunity, but it doesnât.â
Sunetra Gupta is a fucking eejit.
Iâve been continually correct during this pandemic and youâve been continually wrong.
In terms of contrarian indicators, this forum takes the biscuit.
Itâs a support group for professional contrarians.
Funnily enough they all hate people taking a view contrary to theirs.
Iâll take the study from the Cleveland clinic that looked at over 1200 health care workers over the ejeets from Oxford who looked at 80.
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You called it the flu in January 2020. Wrong then and still wrong.
Lolz. Your analysis during this pandemic has been as valuable as second hand toilet roll.
Iâve been spot on. If Ireland had taken the approach of Sweden and focused on infectious disease management in hospitals and nursing homes you would have had half the deaths.
I fully accept if Ireland had shut itâs borders early on and had MHQ for all allowed visitors you would have had minimal deaths, but in the same vein if Dechamps had brought the right defenders to the Euros and left Varane at home they would be in the QF. Once you had community spread the game was over, lockdowns were locking the barn door after the horse has bolted.
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Youâre the one living in a fantasy because you certainly donât understand data, statistics and probability if youâre defending nphets and Neil Fergusonâs fairytale models. I suspect you do but we all know your politics and lots of elements of the lockdown policy consequences suit your politics. That is why you fight so hard for them, you donât actually care about societal well being and what is laughable is you trying to pretend otherwise in your âargumentsâ.
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Fergusonâs model was broadly accurate. Thatâs what you lot canât stand. Itâs bizarre. Iâve no particular attachment at all to Ferguson but I find it hilarious the way he lives rent free in yer heads.
Donât bother with the amateur psychology, youâre shit at it.