Coronavirus Thread (Markey hates Immigrants )

Current Affairs
5808

The best test of Ferguson’s model is Sweden. The Swedes used the Imperial model and came up with 85,000 deaths by summer 2020 unless they went into a hard lockdown. How has that worked out?

5809

Ferguson’s model was broadly accurate about the UK. Sweden are nuts.

5811

My god that is embarrassing for the head of modelling - no wonder it hasn’t been validated independently. Is there no one in the CSO or university depts that can challenge his interpretation of what vaccine effectiveness means and the subsequent estimated infection rates?

Also it’s clear they think every other European country is wrong and we are right.

2 Likes
5812
5814

It’s a pretty serious state of affairs when the chief modeler at Nphet doesn’t understand what vaccine efficacy means.

11 Likes
5815

Can you expand on this? What’s the correct understanding and what’s he saying?

5816

@Artfoley has posted a short article above which summarises it perfectly. It uses an example of 100,000 people who get a vaccine and efficacy is 95%. It doesn’t crudely suggest that unprotected is 5,000 and that the efficacy is essentially linear. But the article explains it better than I can. Post 4921.

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5817

@glasagusban

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5818

Yerra they can throw out any auld calculation to the cabinet.

5819

You’d think the savvy operators like Si Harris, Darragh O’Brien, Norma Foley and Simon Coveney would be clued in enough to challenge and interrogate where appropriate.

3 Likes
5820

The CMO and NPHET have become so obstructive that the government has to set up another group to go around them to do the job they want them to do. It’s absolutely extraordinary. cc @farmerinthecity

5821

Possibly the government has gotten fed up of trying to explain why they can’t use rapid antigen testing.

5822
5 Likes
5823

I picked the number out of Me hole was a lovely calculation from Anglo that time

5824

So if 100% of over 70s get it, 25,000 over 70s would get the pre vaccine symptoms of Covid? What was the mortality rate at its worst? 10-15? So at the very worst 2.5k over 70s would die? Many of whom would barely see out the year either due to their poor health and underlying conditions.

It’s lunacy.

5825

The public health emergency team of the nation of Ireland or PHETNI

5826

Replied to wrong post

5827

Seems to be hospitalisation v chance of getting Covid.

5828

:joy: :joy: :joy:

5829

This is another nail in coffin for Ireland’s academic reputation.

1 Like