Positivity rate of 22%
The death rates in April seen all over the western world was due to widespread infection before any lockdowns. Once the vulnerable were infected back then, there was essentially little that could be done to save them. We know a lot more now (when and how to use ventilators, what therapies work, etc) but back then Covid for elderly people was a death sentence in many cases.
That is an assumption. We started testing in February and the cases werenât as high as they are now, per percentage of positive case per test. We were getting one and two cases a day for a while. It blew up in March and on March 12th the schools closed and mitigation events started, parades cancelled, games called off etc. Which you claimed didnât happen.
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Our office was working as normal until pretty much the end of March when they started to make WFH arrangements.
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The curves are kind of obvious with this now. The people who talked about 500 deaths excess death per 1m were being a bit crude but it is bearing itself out.
Thereâs an endemic phase to this that places go through.
Thereâs all the talk about the âlagâ of deaths but there isnât much lag there for the Czech Republic. The rapid cases have been quickly followed by rapid deaths.
Spain had record cases two months ago. There are deaths but a fraction of before. There was a lot of fear about hospitals but that seems to have levelled off with only a fraction of the peak in the end. Lots of countries are getting fearful as they are seeing a rise in hospitalisations but thatâs the memory bank also playing a trick on you.
Itâs the places who were not âhitâ hard the first time round that should he very watchful.
This has played out everywhere, there hasnât been a true two phase death spiral anywhere so far.
Youâre just arguing for the sake of arguing now, just accept you were wrong and move on. Forget about Ireland, it was the same in all western countries. The virus was spreading EXPONENTIALLY since January at the latest, there was fuck all testing going on, there were no measures taken that could stop it getting to the elderly or care homes, etc. The lag from infection to hospitalization is about 2-3 weeks and another 1-2 weeks to death. That is the main reason for the spike in deaths in April, everywhere, a virus spreading in an uncontrolled fashion.
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Youâre assuming you know everything again.
Like when you said doubling every 2 weeks wasnât exponential, which you never admitted to being wrong on by the way
If the virus was as widespread in Februrary here as you claim, why werenât tests catching it.
It seems to coincide with the peak
They wouldnât have been that high in February, do you not understand what exponential growth means? Exponential growth of Covid is doubling every 2-3 days, do the math. There was also fuck all testing being done.
I donât assume I know everything, everything I know about Covid I learned from people who know a lot more than you or I. I donât rely on apes like Tony Holohan like you do.
but you were saying it was spreading out of control since January, surely that would be reflected in the positive rate (%) of tests if it was out of control, especially considering we were only testing symptomatic at the start.
You could be right but I donât see the data, hence it is an assumption.
Why was the death rate so high in April, compared to now? In every western country.
the age profile of the people contracting the virus was higher and vulnerable people and nursing homes werenât protected quickly enough.
in other words, efforts to mitigate it since the initial wave, show signs of working.
As @Tim_Riggins showed in his graph, the proximity of high cases to high deaths is mapped closely to the age profile and incidence of people with comorbidity getting it and unfortunately dying quickly. This happened here and other places initially and is probably happening now in places where that was the inverse in the first wave
8 months in, 50k posts and nobody has a clue whether the growth is exponential or not.
Nobody knows fucking anything about this virus on here.
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Youâre correct but youâre contradicting the point you made earlier. If thatâs your way of saying you were wrong, fair enough, itâs the Limerick way. If most lives lost in April were to have been saved mitigation efforts needed to be in place in February, especially the nursing homes. The thing thatâs most tragic is all the information needed to implement the measures that are in place now was known by early February but ignored. It was known how contagious the virus was and that it was selectively causing the death of old people.
Not just on here.
Will the vaccine be free .?
I donât want to be paying for something that only half works and thatâs not even proven .
Itâs entirely possible Iâm wrong.
Itâs only my interpretation of the data and itâs very possible that the virus was spreading out of control in January and February, but that is only an assumption.
The empirical evidence points towards a high rise in cases in March and April which coincided with a high rise in deaths.
You are 100% correct in saying that mitigation efforts should have started earlier but I recall in March when I was advocating for lockdown earlier and for travel to be suspended etc there were people arguing with me on it then too.
But sure it had to be spreading out of control in January and February to get to the numbers seen in April. Itâs called exponential growth.
You thought you were going to get the solution to the virus on TFK!!!
Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahajahahahahahahahabahahahaha!
Ha.
Or one could argue that Belgium said open it up to fuck and are in the proverbial shit now.