The âshitâ is relative.
Deaths are a fraction of the peak.
The talk is of hospitals being under pressure, thatâs it really.
Itâs basically what Spain was a month or so ago.
There is nowhere that has seen a similar style of second wave, itâs all being fractions.
What we have seen is places that did not get hit hard the first time get hit hard the second time.
Doctors over there think otherwise. Asking medics who test positive to continue working isnât being in the shit?
Possibly.
Or it could have started spreading in late Februray and through March and due to lack of measures, the exponential growth rate was higher then than it is now.
In April, you see a fall off in cases in response to the measures (again possibly) and exponential decay - it falls off just as fast. we had a long period where we had it under control and gradually the case numbers grew, until the exponential growth rate was cases doubling every 2 weeks. The more cases, the quicker the rate grows because of r0.
r0 was a lot higher back in February and March when we started testing and getting cases, because there was no mitigation in place.
If youâre theory is correct, there should be a lag of 2-6 weeks between the high cases we are seeing now and deaths. So as cases drop, the deaths should rise? Correct?
People with Covid-19 are being asked to work on in hospitals, in Belgium
France had 500+ deaths yesterday up from 200 odd the day before
Spain had 267 up from 93 the day before
the UK had 367 up from 102 the day before
R0 is the basic reproduction rate (theoretical) in a population that hasnât been exposed to the virus before, Rt is the effective reproduction number or how quickly the virus is spreading at any given point in time. The problem is that after the initial lockdown there was still such a high % of the population susceptible so once you make any attempt to reopen you will get a rapid increase in Rt. Thatâs what we have seen everywhere since late summer.
Yes, deaths should rise but it largely depends on who is getting infected. If itâs mostly people in the 0-40 age group there should be far fewer deaths.
yes and the higher the rate of transmission the less you can do to control the demographic that gets infected. The more the virus is out there, the harder it is to control.
why wait for it to get out of control before introducing measures? We did that already
Except what we proved in March through May was that you can suppress the spread, but then you have to stay locked down forever or until there is a vaccine that is effective, as when you try and open up the Rt rises again. Society wonât accept being locked down beyond a certain length of time, especially the young. In the meantime you have destroyed your economy. Itâs a catch 22, but thatâs the reason Sweden have got it more right than anyone else.
Yes and some doctors in Madrid said the exact same thing a month ago.
Belgium is still nowhere near the peak that they were at. Deaths are running at about 20% of the peak for example.
They are asking asymptomatic to keep working with Covid patients, looks like a good use of resources to me.
Weâll see where they land on this but there is no doubt that this virus is going to cause pressure on your health system. The sign of pressure does not mean that we should all lockdown.
youâre very definitive in the way you express your opinion. You think thatâs why Sweden have got it right
They may have got it more right than other places or they may not have. indicators around economic impact etc show Sweden have had similar falls to other places, in unemployment etc. They have worse death rates than a lot of their counterparts.
The rights and wrongs wonât be known for years.
Iâll admit to one thing. I got Sweden drastically wrong early doors. I thought there would be a much bigger impact given that they were implied to have a herd immunity strategy, but given whatâs come out since they didnât, all data mobility trackers have shown their movement is relatively similar to that of other EU countries. They havenât closed businesses, but people are taking it seriously.
what should happen?
Could be the case that Swedenâs relatively high death rate is more down to failing to protect nursing homes than an indictment of their lockdown policy. I donât know the specifics. Plenty other countries with more stringent policies suffered high nursing home deaths.
Swedenâs deaths are often benchmarked against neighbouring scandanavian counties which had low deaths so I donât know if there are demographic or cultural factors making Sweden at higher risk than say Norway wrt nursing home deaths or whether the laissez faire policy led to sufficient community transmission to endanger the nursing homes.
âDry tinderâ is a term I heard used regarding this. Seemingly, Sweden had a much lower death rate from the flu the preceding winter in comparison to their own normal and to their neighbours. Covid then came along and those that got the reprieve from the flu were taken.
Thatâs hilarious coming from you. I said I believe Sweden have got it more right than most places.
you didnât.
That sounds familiar alright. Iâve also heard our flu season was a bit milder than 2018 so vulnerable elderly who might not have survived a harsh flu season were taken instead by Covid
Few in my Workplace have been told to stay at home for 14 days following a breach of the Covid guidelines.
A gang of them (7 people) went to a house over the weekend for a few cans. One of them put up a picture on Instagram and it somehow got back to one of the managers. They all got a phone call telling them to stay at home for 14 days. 
Are you going to argue about it for the next 24 hours? Off you go.
Thatâs hilarious coming from you
With pay?