Coronavirus Thread - Pause before - The Final Battle (Part 1)

Not yet but I assume it will be

At the roundabout, take the third exit and continue to follow the N52

indeed, avoid mullingar at all costs


Who can save us now?

Mickey harte is available

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Christmas under the bed for paddy and some poor cunts think they’ll be drinking pints in the pub in 2 weeks :sweat_smile:

Poor Emily :slightly_frowning_face:

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Thankfully it won’t be a crime to stand in the rain drinking a pint out of a plastic glass

Ireland 1
Covid 0

Good breakdown of Covid transmission source.

It would appear cases went down and then schools being off for midterm helped accelerate the downward trend in cases. Once schools went back the cases have risen again.

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Its pubs, schools and tourists coming through the open airports that are causing the spread don’t be fool by fancy accurate data

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Tell us more. How is the test taken? How long does the entire process take? Is it scalable?

I think my prediction from a month ago is fairly bang on in terms of case numbers. NPHET and Nolan predicted 250 cases a day by this time last week and 50 a day by December after 6 weeks. The strategy of locking down everything is in serious diminishing marginal returns territory and its not something that seems to have entered their calculations. Whats striking from @Jahan’s post above is number of transmissions in home settings. People by their very nature are not going to stop all activity and stay at home like recluses. They will change, adapt and find other paths of least resistance. You will only ever get a short term bounce in terms of draconian restrictions. I expect the numbers to increase up to 700/800 a day by Mid December and to reach 1000 again by end of the year. It will be blamed on people coming home from abroad and other spurious straw clutching excuses will be used by the media but in reality the numbers were trending that way anyway. Sometime between 7th- 13th of January we will all be locked down again until March.

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I doubt it will rise that significantly again but I find myself nodding along in agreement with your diminishing returns theory.

You need to look at how many of those transmissions were a husband infecting a wife etc. Given how contagious the virus is supposed to be you’d imagine in a majority of cases someone will infect another person in the home.

I have said it before but if NPHET don’t have a psychology team on hand to contribute on these recommendations then they are not worth the paper they are written on.

The constant emphasis on the public at large being to ‘blame’ really grinds on me I must say,

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I agree with both @TreatyStones and @johnnysachs. The chances of getting down to NPHET’s numbers were always minimal given testing and the amount of aspects of society still going on.

If SAGE say that schools have 0.5 impact on R, the claims that they cannot have a similar impact here make little sense. I admire Martin for getting schools open but some kind of flexibility was needed if they really were just going to try and smash the numbers that low in respiratory season.

All in all, Level 5 was introduced too soon. The household restrictions and people’s behaviour had helped turn the tide but that’s not enough. As @johnnysachs says, what card can they now play after offering Christmas goodies?

I noticed that NPHET said the numbers weren’t set in stone yesterday but they will all find it hard to walk back on it.

Apparently they do. I thought they must not have but they seem to.

Gentle swab of the nose. Filled out a brief form beforehand. In and out in a minute. Result about 15 mins later. Looks to be easily scalable if they had a decent facility

hundreds of thousands arriving every day in the airports