They are so weirdly obsessed with traffic stats. The fact that Nolan is saying that contacts have gone up despite Level 5 needs to give them pause for thought but instead it is bizarre phantom bullshit.
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Traffic has absolutely fallen off a cliff too which makes it even stranger they are referencing it. Its one of the biggest changes for me I fly straight in and out of Dublin nowadays in a third of the time it would have taken me. (drive)
Stalled progress suggests Varadkar was right in Claire Byrne interview
CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER TONY HOLOHAN AND TĂNAISTE LEO VARADKAR, WHO APPEARED TO ANTICIPATE SIX WEEKS AGO THAT A LOCKDOWN MIGHT NOT WORK AS WELL AS HOPED. PHOTOGRAPH: DAVE MEEHAN
Mark Paul
As it becomes apparent that the Level 5 lockdown is not yet working to the extent that public health officials and the Government had hoped, it doesnât take Mystic Meg to detect the emergence of discord in the policymaking camp as the deadline for reopening looms.
That is always a risk when a Plan A appears to stall and there is no clear Plan B.
The Irish Timesâ political team reported on Thursdayyesterday about clashes between Government officials and Tony Holohan, the chief medical officer, over the details of the plan to emerge from Level 5 restrictions at the start of next month.
If that divergence becomes a chasm that affects the clarity of decision-making, businesses in retail and hospitality will pay a price in the form of muddled advice. This is why Ibec, the employersâ lobby group, was so exercised this week in its letter to Ministers pleading for a decisive approach.
It would be more concerning, however, if there were no rows, as that would mean the Stateâs essential economic needs were not even being considered at the decision-making table. Any fair assessment also should take into account that such disagreements are being forged in the heat of the biggest public health battle Ireland has fought in more than 100 years. It should be a little fiery.
First signs of discord
It is worth casting an eye back just over six weeks ago when the first signs of discord between the Government and the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet), chaired by Holohan, emerged over Nphetâs initial attempt to bounce Ministers into a four-week Level 5 shutdown.
TĂĄnaiste Leo Varadkar gave a now infamous television interview to RTĂ broadcaster Claire Byrne in which he eviscerated Holohanâs rationale, before relenting two weeks later and agreeing to a shutdown for six weeks.
Varadkar later justified his U-turn on the basis that daily infection rates had continued to accelerate, a reasonable rationale. Itâs also reasonable to suspect that he may have been partly motivated to change his mind by the knowledge that, if the virus had spun out of control, he would be forever remembered for that combative interview and blamed for any health disaster that followed.
After he changed his mind, the public narrative coalesced around a vague notion that Varadkar was too hasty when he raised concerns over a move to Level 5, and that he was wrong to say what he said that night.
But was he, really? Letâs remind ourselves of his complaints about the then-proposed four-week move to the strictest tier of restrictions, and compare that to where the State is now, just over four weeks into the latest round of restrictions. He doesnât seem too far wrong from this vantage point.
Varadkar complained that there was no evidence that a Level 5 lockdown, which has put hundreds of thousands of people out of work, would be âenoughâ, although he didnât define what enough might be. He asked a reasonable question about what would happen if Level 5 didnât sufficiently drive down virus numbers.
As the decline in the infection numbers has stalled over the last week and the daily rate has settled between 350 and 450 new cases, Varadkarâs thesis looks like it may be about to be tested.
Some public health experts have suggested in recent days that the decline in the daily rate may have stalled temporarily due to the schoolsâ midterm break and the celebrations around Halloween. We can still hope that it turns out to be the case and the downward trajectory resumes to some degree.
But what if it doesnât?
Varadkar said on Claire Byrne Live that, if progress under lockdown stalled, the State would have to make a choice between âabandoning the process or proceeding regardlessâ. Nphet, he argued, hadnât âcontemplatedâ that situation. Unless the current situation improves, it looks as if it may need to contemplate it soon.
Ministers, including Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly, have suggested there is âno appetiteâ for extending the Level 5 restrictions beyond December 1st, regardless of whether there is further improvement or not. Economic lobbyists, meanwhile, are up in arms.
The point is that Varadkar seemed to anticipate six weeks ago that a lockdown might not work as well as hoped and that the publicâs support for it could wane, whereas Nphet didnât appear to have considered that as a real issue at all. The public health advisers seemed prepared to junk the economy for a month or more because they were apparently so sure that it would be worth it. But the current situation suggests Varadkar may have been correct to raise his concerns.
Friction
While some friction between the Government and Nphet might actually be a good thing in helping to find the right balance between public health concerns and the economy, it does have one major downside â it gives a licence to the cranks among us who are only too gleeful to lambaste everybody else for laxity in adhering to the what is among the strictest anti-virus regimes in Europe.
Here, Nphet has made some clear errors. For example, Holohanâs deputy, Ronan Glynn, was, I believe, ill advised this week to speak publicly about a supposedly âselfish minorityâ that a few cranks then sought to blame for the stalling of progress on case numbers.
Glynn was responding to the latest in a long line of behaviour-shaming videos on social media, which this time showed people drinking takeaway pints outside in small groups, albeit all on the same street, in Dublin.
The self-righteous sensed the nod from above and had a field day, even though there is no significant risk attached to outdoor drinking in small groups, and the video was too recent for the behaviour it captured to be a factor in the trajectory of virus numbers that we are now seeing.
A certain amount of human failure should be expected in any coherent strategy. So letâs not burn our fellow citizens at the stake for their failings just yet. There is also still a week-and-a-half to go of the Level 5 restrictions and the hope that a modicum of progress may resume has not yet evaporated completely. Then, it will be time to reopen the economy again, and also to hold our nerve.
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Leo leo leo
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Mark Paul is the lad who was on primetime last night and shower up professor bookshop as having no original thoughts outside of her own medical community
MY BOOKSHOP DOES IT!!! And they donât even have a website.
But youâll find theyâre in bits financially while you get your full wages into your bank account every fortnight.
Iâm seething with the junta talking down to us.
Leo has made mugs of you all
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Heâs made a mug of himself. He destroyed the junta and then went hiding behind them again in case he was wrong
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3D chess
I see theyâre floating the idea that we can have one visit over Christmas.
Ah lads.
Come on.
Heâs not even playing snakes and ladders
Heâs playing the Trivial Pursuit on a Game of Life Board
This will be some craic
Out out out he said.
If the mob can force out some RTE heavy hitters it would free up resources to extend the PUP for another year
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From the outset of his pandemic he has demonstrated very good judgement all the way through. In the run up to St Patrickâs Day he called on the government to cancel events while they were still dithering. He was right then about shutting down and heâs right now about somewhat opening up.
His is the kind of commentary we need instead we have the likes of McDonkey and Tomas Ryan lunatics versus the TFK itâs all a cod screamers.
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Thatâs the point. I was surprised how quickly they fell in behind level 5 after taking such a contrary position.
This has been the difficulty all through. The government appoint a team of experts and they say that their advice is going to save lives. Very hard for a government to demur from that, even when they see other countries have taken a different approach. This goes back to NPHET not being fit for purpose, or at least how it operates not being fit for purpose.
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Sure all their policies are just based on what people on Twitter are saying these days
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If you google this lady most of her online profile is spent pushing this bookshop, Raven books in Blackrock.
George Lee let the cat out of the bag on the news there this morning. IBEC had been vocal during the week on opening up retail. Come Thursday night employers are the problem. Nphet are quite vindictive.
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