Holohan is flailing all over the place now. This week already the list of culprits is college students in Limerick, funeral goers, on Street drinkers, people who park in car parks and eat in canteens, employers.
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NPHET kept pushing it and said Level 3 wouldnât work, the only hospitalisation stats NPHET used to justify it was the âcurrent trajectoryâ of the middle of October (which they said would be 450-600 in hospital). They were desperate for Level 5 and didnât want to wait around to see Level 3.
This just shows that they donât have a clue what works and what doesnât. They closed restaraunts and bars because of some flimsy associational evidence, but as Mark Paul said last evening, there is some pretty compelling evidence on retail being a limited cause. Retail workers have not seen significant infections vs. other areas, like hospital workers (obviously) and meat plant workers. All NPHET seem to look at is traffic stats and they are terrified of all movement of people.
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It would be great if by the end of this NPHET were a laughing stock but they still seem to have a lot of support
Yes thereâs no end of anecdotal evidence of different segments of the population at fault yet no reliable data on this with the vast majority of transmission attributed to âprivate homesâ in the published data
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Iâm sure with the benefit of hindsight they might have opted to stay at level 3 and maybe a short 2 week instead of 6 week period at level 5. Their aim was to suppress the virus and knock it down to 50 cases a day but that was never on the cards with schools being open and mass mobilisations of people every morning and evening. The economic cost of this will be monumental and its important to talk about that too as it will have negative consequences for being able to provide other basic services.
Ah its a bit more than a Team there are 40 of them. They need to slim NPHET down to a more manageable group. 40 fuckers sure nothing would get done.
Yea the private homes is the default category bucket like âotherâ. That statistic means nothing really. In the absence of contact tracing they are only fucking guessing and then making it up as they go along. The reality is they donât know and they should admit as much.
There was supposed to be another layer of civil servants above NPHET that they nominally reported into but that seems to have been forgotten about
You need an objective independent media first.
They seem to think they can only to motivate people solely through fear, which is wrong. Fear seemed to work as a preemptive step in October as people saw cases rising to over 1,000. But they played that card early and didnât wait to see the impact. Level 5 just doesnât seem to have the ingredients in it to work as they want it as you say.
But there is a chance for them. They want 50-100 cases again as it is low firstly but also they can give contact tracing another shot. But we are ticking along fine with the case numbers we have.
They have to live in the real world for a couple of weeks and look at positive motivation. Opening bars and restaraunts for a week might be a positive motivator for people to âbehaveâ during the first two weeks of Christmas. They also need to stop pretending that the vaccine news is stopping people adhering to rules. Give the public a bit of excitement but measure it, you have a couple of more months to wait for the vaccine but there is a finishing line there. People will be more willing to moderate their Christmas (and even travel, which theyâre scared of), if they see a finishing line to this.
It wasnât just âfearâ that got everyone on board in March and April, fear is what stopped the virus pre Lockdown in Ireland, it was a collective societal buy in that allowed NPHET to have their extended Lockdown.
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They have to go
I hope Phil Collins doesnât feel the virus coming in the air tonight. Oh Lord.
NPHET are in their bubble just like ourselves and everyone else. Everyone in their families and peer group will follow every NPHET guideline religiously and unquestioningly. Everyone they know views them as demi-Gods.
Breda and Nuala are too stupid to every turn on NPHET. Those ladies are never online. The never really go out except to church functions or playing bridge or shopping and the like. NPHET are losing Irish Twitter at the moment because people have twigged that lockdown canât work if the schools are open but thatâs still a tiny section of society. January will be very tough for NPHET.
Or that we have data showing mass spreads in hospitals, like this for example
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Doom monger on Pat Kenny now.
I think January could actually end up okay for them.
Schools donât go back until the second week. People donât socialise a lot generally. And we will be seeing vaccinations starting if not in Ireland, but in the rest of the world.
The trick for them will be to navigate Christmas, but they need to be a bit more imaginative on their messaging.
Priest on Claire Byrne here, not stopping heâs masses. Not taking any shit from the guards. Pushing on regardless of what those cunts in NPHET say
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Great posting from you this morning Tim.
NPHET could be permanently killed in the very next interview thatâs given because all that needs to be said is âYou want an R-rate of about 0.5. International studies suggest that having the schools open adds about 0.5 to the R-rate on its own. You rely on those same studies in an a la carte fashion.â
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âIntense discussionsâ underway lads