@mikehunt when Covid restrictions end
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What you do - or should be doing, when you examine the figures is look for trends - and especially look for underling worrying trends, in order that you can head off problems.
What I did wasn’t cherry picking. It was identifying important trends.
What you did with the figures you picked out is cherry picking, as you admit yourself .
As far as I can see, most of the underlying factors at play now or in the future are negative.
No restrictions, winter on the horizon, more interaction between people indoors, and possible waning of vaccine effectiveness.
October 22nd will make a big difference. Clearly there is some anticipatory behaviour as if restrictions are no longer in place, but October 22nd will ramp things up in a big way and I donnt think people should kid themselves about that.
The only optimistic thing I can see on the horizon in the short to medium term is more vaccinations.
The bottom line is that if hospitalisations are going up at a time when cases have largely been going down, that’s a problem - a big problem.
And the “they may have other conditions” argument is a red herring. Covid ruthlessly exposes people with underlying conditions. If Covid is spreading in hospitals, that’s a serious problem.
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I think it was blatantly obvious what you were laughing at - the idea that cases would return to 900 daily if pubs opened - they went well over 900 without pubs opening. You were categorically wrong on this.
Glad there’s some humour back in your life. You were teetering on the brink for quite some time.
Nope, I very clearly was laughing at your optimism levels of modelling assessment.
Caught out making things up again. Uh oh.
Sure you were, buddy.
Just suck up that you were wrong and move on. It’s much easier in the long term.
Back at you pal.
Cases shot up very quickly in June, but have been relatively steady since, the rate of increase on the first few days/weeks has not materialised to the same extent since, thats where my cherry picked figures come in. But as noted, there are selective reading on stats on both sides of this, hence my reluctance to just blindly look at numbers rather than the reasoning or overall readings.
Covid spreading in hospitals is a huge problem. And I know you know that too well, so I dont particularly want to harp on about it nor make light of it. But there is no data about the cases in hospital which concerns me more.
Are people coming into hospital because of Covid?
Are people getting Covid in hospital?
Are people who go into hospital for one ailment actually testing positive without symptoms or thinking they have it?
The above really needs to be addressed and analysed to properly tell on the effects that Covid is having on the health system. Numbers on their own dont paint the full picture, and that goes both ways throughout all of this.
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Sure the fella doing the modelling is supposedly telling lies about the impact on schools. We should believe him when his models are pessimistic and then when he states schools are not hosting stealth bombers accuse him of “gaslighting”.
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Well Covid infections, and thus cases, seem to be on the rise. Test positivity has gone up to over 10%. Positivity averages have steadily risen in recent weeks.
A quick look at the hospitalisation numbers and the ICU numbers cannot but be concerning. They are rising.
Before winter, before the run up to Christmas, and before we abolish all restrictions, at a time when the vaccination programme has slowed to a bare trickle?
This is the graph that concerns me most.
In terms of Covid and hospitals themselves, this to me all seems rather easy to understand.
Delta is more serious than previous variants. The flow of people into hospitals is more than the flow out. So your patient numbers in terms of how many people are in hospitals with Covid at any one time seem to back up and accumulate.
Covid rises in the community. More people go into hospital. The accumulation of Covid patients in hospitals at any one time increases. And the risk of Covid outbreaks within hospitals goes seriously up.
When you start getting Covid outbreaks within hospitals, you get a backlog for all health services. And the only way to ease things becomes imposing the dreaded restrictions again.
All this is a well trodden path. We’re at serious risk of walking down it again.
Would we not expect positivity rates to be increasing since close contacts are no longer advised either to isolate or to get a test?
If only those with symptoms are going for tests then it stands to reason positivity rates will increase.
Sure look it, it’s a conspiracy, something something.
No, it’s gaslighting. They’re literally lighting the gas.
But numbers are increasing.
Precisely because close contacts are no longer advised to isolate or get a test.
Levels of Covid unfortunately require constant monitoring. If you take your eye off the ball and decide to stop monitoring it, Covid will do its thing.
The first place you have evidence of it doing its thing is when people start turning up to the hospitals. And that’s a bit late to start realising you have a problem, isn’t it.
Yes covid levels are increasing. That was expected.
But you’ve ignored my point, which was only that there’s an obvious reason positivity rates are going up. It’s a policy choice.
It’s the wrong policy choice. It’s the “throw your hat at it” policy choice.
That’s a view. At least you acknowledge the reason for it.
The reason for it is that government has come to a view that continued containment is too hard.
I think there’s a very good chance that that will mean we end up having to do something a lot harder.
Again, a well trodden path, that one.