Cheers mate.
Howâs things looking over there heading into winter?
What I really fear is that if we have more mass spread this winter, and at the moment this looks much likelier than not, we will, like night follows day, get new variants. Measles has an R rate of up to 18. Delta is in the 5-10 range, we think. If we get a variant that spreads like Measles, what then? It doesnât bear thinking about. But the prospect has to be considered.
The study by Jeffrey Townsend et al. in the Lancet estimates that natural immunity is weak, 50% reinfection in a no restrictions environment at 17 months. If vaccine protection in terms of infection and transmission is weaker than we hope for, humanity has a big, fucking problem.
The notion of Covid endemicity may turn out to be one of humanityâs worst ever mistakes. If weâre very lucky, mass vaccination north of 90-95% total population may avoid that possibility. And that may have to be minimum triple vaccination.
But it now looks clear that vaccines on their own will not solve this problem. They have to be accompanied by other public health measures.
The vaccines will at least protect the majority of people from serious illness and death.
To those on this forum who remain unvaccinated.
Get. Fucking. Vaccinated. Now.
Cases and deaths have been dropping for the past month. Itâs really hard to know what will happen in winter, restrictions are largely gone except for indoor masking in some states. The models are all over the shop, from a steady decline from here until next Spring to a new variant that drives a big winter wave. The scariest outlook is a variant that evades existing immunity, canât be ruled out.
Denmark stopped its mass testing programme last month and dropped all internal restrictions - though I presume there is still wide scale mask use etc.
At the height of that mass testing programme I think they were doing about 700k tests a day, around 200k PCR and 500k antigen.
The official Danish government site says on October 12th they did 41k PCRs and 20k antigen tests.
In my view, even thatâs no longer enough. Denmarkâs cases have not risen to dangerous levels yet, but they are rising.
Our official site says 24k tests total in the last 24 hour period for which figures are available. Is it any wonder we have lost track of the amount of infection in the community. That, in the words of James Sloyan, is Simply. Not. Good Enough.
Itâs not like anyone who wants a test is being denied one though is it?
No one gives a fuck about your ramblings you freak. Many, many countries have moved on and will continue to do so rapidly. Paddy is a slow learner but will follow suit. You can continue to shout in to the void but no one with an ounce of self respect or intelligence gives a toss what you think or your random Twitter paste jobs.
Simply. Not. Good Enough.
We have to go nuclear on testing. We have to be testing at minimum several multiples of what we are now. We have to be doing it it regularly and we have to be strictly regulating access to the internal economy on the basis of testing.
There is a massive gap between what needs to be done and Irelandâs understanding of what needs to be done.
Even now, after 18 months, we in Ireland - and I include the government and the official response in this - remain rooted in the idea of 2019 normality. Big fucking mistake.
Nobody with two brain cells to rub together gives a fuck what you think, because you donât even have that.
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As predicted by me, we got fuck all benefit from the last few restrictions. Nonsense like having masks between the table and the jacks in the pub didnât work. We could have been open for a month or two but instead we persisted with this bullshit.
Are the Brits, the Swedes, the Danes etc bringing in restrictions?
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Another late night for the lads.
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The coronavirus doesnât sleep. Why should we?
Gas cunts.
You told me viral load wasnât a factor. You told me this in the context of me defending vaccinations and you wanting to downplay their importance.
Interesting comment. Sick people (not with covid) ate filling up the hospitals. The question is should be continue restrictions on the basis that we donât have enough hospital capacity in general?
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The narrative among the OIUTF cult has always been that more Covid in the community in a no restrictions environment equals better healthcare for those with other illnesses.
24k tests in the last 24 hour period for which figures are available.
2,066 cases yesterday.
You would imagine that yesterdayâs mood music will have put Covid front and centre in the public mind again.
And you would imagine, or at least hope, that that will lead to higher numbers of tests over the coming days.
Which will probably mean an explosion in the numbers.
If the levels of people who were getting tested was at the minimum level it should be, our case numbers would be at least double what they are, probably more - because the hospitalisations to cases ratio is now 4.3%, up from 1.6% in August.
Thatâs proof that the real case figure should probably be at least 5k.
Thereâs literally a massive moment coming up in this whole affair I think. If they go ahead as planned on October 22nd I can see no going back bar absolutely disastrous consequences. Thereâs a good chance things could peak then level out and drop but they wonât know till they try and itâs definitely a risk. If they hold off we will never go back to 2019 life as they have in UK.
Itâs all guess work really and nobody has a clue what will happen.
Thatâs never a statement anyone has made. The problem is we donât have enough capacity without covid. Now we need better data on people who present to hospital because of the effects of covid. Who turns up with other issues and test positive or get covid in hospital. If its a case where people who present because of covid is 70/80 percent of the hospital number than I would be worried but I suspect its a majority of options 2 and 3. Thatâs not saying that people are going to hospital because of covid and is increasing the strain on a already overwhelmed system. Being open more people will need hospital care due to normal life.
Not sure if this represents precisely what youâre asking but non admissions are making up a higher percentage relative to admissions in recent days.
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Whats classed as non admissions?