[quote=âdancarter, post: 831778, member: 122â]Tigers missing a good few. Including Toby Flood their capt. Tom Youngs, croft, tuilagi all Lions are out as well as good few more first choice
Have poor record in the rec only won 2 of last ten (two more draws). Bath were excellent away from home in brutal conditions last week, Newcastle won away last night to put further shine on that result. Bath biggest issue last season was they were outmuscled and they look to have addressed that somewhat. Stringer and George Forde decent half back pairing. I donât rate Ryan Lamb at all at ten for Tigers he can be v hit or miss.
Bath too short in straight match betting and doubt they would win by 13+.
Thatâs my thinking. But youv seen my record over last few weeks. Buyer beware! This early in season bit of a minefield[/quote]
You got me for a small one.
Well I called one piece right. Bath, pre game underdogs, are 18 pts ahead at the break and playing super stuff
Tigers two in the bin. Now cheering for Leicester
[quote=âdancarter, post: 831755, member: 122â]Bet 9
Bath to beat Leiscter 1-12 pts
4 pts @ 15/8
Bank -20 pts
Edit: got better price at Stan James[/quote]
Winner alright. 27-20 Bath.
Return 11.5 pts
Bank -8.5 pts (8 pts in play AP)
Bet 10
Shane Jennings first try
.75pts EW @ 18/1 (1/4 odds 1-3)
Bank - 10 pts
[quote=âdancarter, post: 831896, member: 122â]Winner alright. 27-20 Bath.
Return 11.5 pts
Bank -8.5 pts (8 pts in play AP)[/quote]
Great stuff Dan. This tip stood out for me a little just going on the little I have seen. Thanks for fleshing that out. I actually went bath -5 in the end as sportsbet didnât seem to have the 1-12.
Bet 11
Saracens beat Gloucester by 11-20 pts
2pts @ 5/2
Hcap line is 11 at odds on. Donât see Saracens covering it by much so this looks value. Glaws will be smarting after home loss last week but Saracens just a far better side and playing on their artificial surface gives them another boost.
Bet 12
Jamie George- any time try scorer
.5 pts @ 5-1
PP standout here. As short as 10/3 elsewhere. Big very mobile young hooker. Got two last week. Will probably only play 50 mins with Britz on the bench so small bet only
Bank -12.5 pts
[quote=âdancarter, post: 832206, member: 122â]Bet 11
Saracens beat Gloucester by 11-20 pts
2pts @ 5/2
Hcap line is 11 at odds on. Donât see Saracens covering it by much so this looks value. Glaws will be smarting after home loss last week but Saracens just a far better side and playing on their artificial surface gives them another boost.
Bet 12
Jamie George- any time try scorer
.5 pts @ 5-1
PP standout here. As short as 10/3 elsewhere. Big very mobile young hooker. Got two last week. Will probably only play 50 mins with Britz on the bench so small bet only
Bank -12.5 pts[/quote]
Knew this bet was beaten when Glou had man sent off after a minute. Played most of 2nd half with 13 men. They held out long time but Sar got two tries in last 90 secs to kill my bet and win 44-12. Thought it was gonna get paid against all probability!
Ignore the scoreline. This was decent effort from Glou in impossible circumstances and they are worth following in next few weeks. They will take some heart from this. One caveat Freddie burns went off injured. Wouldnât be keen on them without him.
As for try scorer. He lasted till 55th min and his replacement scored from the hookers spot at the back of driving maul within a minute of coming on!
Have you contacted the local Credit Union for a dig out yet @dancarter ?
Not a bad weekend this week carry so no need yet. Slowly clawing my way back to the black
It makes sense if I use the same tracking method as TTK for monitoring progress. I am going to exclude the ante post bets until they are settled as a result.
Revised Bank is - 4.5 pts
[quote=âdancarter, post: 832783, member: 122â]It makes sense if I use the same tracking method as TTK for monitoring progress. I am going to exclude the ante post bets until they are settled as a result.
Revised Bank is - 4.5 pts[/quote]
Whoâs thread is winning so far?
[quote=âdancarter, post: 832783, member: 122â]It makes sense if I use the same tracking method as TTK for monitoring progress. I am going to exclude the ante post bets until they are settled as a result.
Revised Bank is - 4.5 pts[/quote]
Off balance sheet accounting at its finest. Dan cooking the books already.
Just adapting to the use of TFKGAAP Fagan.
In fact what I had been using was a rudimentary cashflow statement. TTK uses a more sophisticated P&L mechanism accounting for profits and losses as they are crystallised.
Above all I am focused on transparency and it is only fair to all involved that both of us use the same method of tracking our progress
The senior pundit is currently winning Glas showing less of a loss than myself.
Are you fishing for a top job at one of the big bookies as well Dan? Donât know how long TTK lasted though as his new employers told him to not post here-Iâm assuming he got the road and thatâs why he can post away again.
Keep it up dan, you had some good input last season. Shakey start but youâre getting there. As opposed to TTK who had a great early record before a complete meltdown.
@dancarter
Iâm thinking of taking Leinster at 2.27. They should be warming into their season now and should have too much for Glasgow. Glasgow have a good home record so thatâs withholding me somewhat.
Whatâs your take
Some competitive fare tonight which should deliver some value hopefully. Munster look to me to be improving week on week since the pre-season and a strong side out tonight. No value in the price though, albeit I think they will win, and possibly with a bit in hand.
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Bet 12
I fancy Sale to bounce back from last weeks home defeat to Newcastle; most likely went into the game with an air of complacence after a week 1 away win. Kicking of McLeod left them down but should still have gotten a win. I donât think they will make the same mistake a second time against a team Wasps team probably as average as themselves and home advantage the deciding factor in what should be a tight affair.
In France home advantage is key. Montpellier look like they can mount a charge to get into the playoffs at least, and possibly more once Rene Ranger arrives. They have a strong record at home to Clermont and the side selected by Clermont looks some way off their best side. Montp will be well rested having allowed a break for many of their stars last week and should have enough to maintain their unbeaten home record (they have hammered Toulouse, drawn with Toulon and beaten Brive in three home games to date).
2.5 pts double (B365)
Montpellier 1/2
Sale 8/11
________________________________________________
Bet 13
Will also do a small treble
1 Pt treble all to win by 1-12 pts (PP)
Glasgow @ 11/8
Sale @ 17/10
Montpellier @ 13/10
___________________________________________
Bank - 8pts
[quote=âcaoimhaoin, post: 834796, member: 273â]@dancarter
Iâm thinking of taking Leinster at 2.27. They should be warming into their season now and should have too much for Glasgow. Glasgow have a good home record so thatâs withholding me somewhat.
Whatâs your take[/quote]
Glasgow are a fine side and I wouldnt be opposing them. Great result last week (albeit could have been hammered) almost an inverse of what happened with Leinster really. I actually picked Glasgow above for small stakes in a treble.
Leinster do have a good record against Glasgow, and a good record away from home in general. But they are still a ways off putting out their strongest team and another new half back pairing tonight doesnt help. Should be a good match, both of em will try to play rugby.
[quote=âdancarter, post: 834798, member: 122â]Some competitive fare tonight which should deliver some value hopefully. Munster look to me to be improving week on week since the pre-season and a strong side out tonight. No value in the price though, albeit I think they will win, and possibly with a bit in hand.
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Bet 12
I fancy Sale to bounce back from last weeks home defeat to Newcastle; most likely went into the game with an air of complacence after a week 1 away win. Kicking of McLeod left them down but should still have gotten a win. I donât think they will make the same mistake a second time against a team Wasps team probably as average as themselves and home advantage the deciding factor in what should be a tight affair.
In France home advantage is key. Montpellier look like they can mount a charge to get into the playoffs at least, and possibly more once Rene Ranger arrives. They have a strong record at home to Clermont and the side selected by Clermont looks some way off their best side. Montp will be well rested having allowed a break for many of their stars last week and should have enough to maintain their unbeaten home record (they have hammered Toulouse, drawn with Toulon and beaten Brive in three home games to date).
2.5 pts double (B365)
Montpellier 1/2
Sale 8/11
________________________________________________
Bet 13
Will also do a small treble
1 Pt treble all to win by 1-12 pts (PP)
Glasgow @ 11/8
Sale @ 17/10
Montpellier @ 13/10
___________________________________________
Bank - 8pts[/quote]
First bet came up.
Glasgow and Sale up in the other bet but Montpellier beat Clermont by 40!! Including a 31 point haul for Pallison the scrum half. Close no cigar. The treble was paying 14-1
Munster had a shocker and I also hope I saved my pal Kev a few quid