Porto is switching back to Dublin/Fingal North is it not?
The only Fingal areas in Dublin Bay North will be Howth, Sutton and Baldoyle.
Yes it is. GV was elected in other areas which would previously been Fingal.
There certainly is some merit in what Mrs Sheahan has had to say about FF and the referendum. The problem for her however is that itās pretty obvious that much of this is down to a constituency spat and her electoral record simply does not justify her getting what she wants - a lone nomination. Actually, just looking at the results of the referendum, I note that despite Averilās herculean efforts, the lowest YES vote in the Dublin region last Friday came in Dublin North East.
That lone nomination thing is disputed. I donāt think theyād ever get away without running Haughey if he wants it. But sheād have been a much better foil for him than Woods, picking up a newer type FF voter while still getting his transfers. Woods would just split that vote - but not very much, she simply doesnāt poll well and hasnāt polled anywhere near as well as Power in their past.
Fianna Fail were always going to run at least two and it was going to be a gender balance ticket. There should be just about a Fianna Fail seat there, but whether it was Woods, Mrs Sheahan (or both of them) running with Haughey, there was only going to be one winner there from the Fianna Fail tent. I strongly suspect that Averilās thinking was, her only path to election was if she had a lone nomination. Sheās had the silver spoon treatment since the start of her political career - Hanifanās right hand woman, championed by the Champ and a surprise nomination to the Seanad. It must have been a great shock not getting everything her own way.
Whats the name of Woods daughter that is running? I know he has a daughter that should be about 40ish, is she the one that is running?
Aileen
I donāt think itās anything like that clear-cut for Haughey. He and Power both did about as well as eachother last time. Haughey got about 200 extra first preference votes but was nowhere near as transfer friendly as Power. Both ended up fifth in a 3 seat constituency, Power was 3k short of what she needed, Haughey was 5k needed of what he needed.
Iām beginning to sound an awful lot like a Power apologist and Iām certainly not one. I really donāt like her and Iām always deeply suspicious of someone who becomes a FF devotee in their teens or whatever. But she was one of the very few bright points for FF in the last election and was widely expected to do better this time around because of her new national profile etc and being more established in the area.
Anyway, all of that is to illustrate there isnāt much between Power and Haughey when it comes to chances of getting elected. Woods isnāt in that ballpark at all.
[QUOTE=āRocko, post: 1148987, member: 1ā]I donāt think itās anything like that clear-cut for Haughey. He and Power both did about as well as eachother last time. Haughey got about 200 extra first preference votes but was nowhere near as transfer friendly as Power. Both ended up fifth in a 3 seat constituency, Power was 3k short of what she needed, Haughey was 5k needed of what he needed.
Iām beginning to sound an awful lot like a Power apologist and Iām certainly not one. I really donāt like her and Iām always deeply suspicious of someone who becomes a FF devotee in their teens or whatever. But she was one of the very few bright points for FF in the last election and was widely expected to do better this time around because of her new national profile etc and being more established in the area.
Anyway, all of that is to illustrate there isnāt much between Power and Haughey when it comes to chances of getting elected. Woods isnāt in that ballpark at all.[/QUOTE]
Will Power get in as an independent? Is it a foregone conclusion
Mary OāRourke says she will and she wishes her all the best and that sheāll miss her. Whatās going on here? I donāt take any of this at face value. Is being nice to Averil part of a wider issue between the Lenihan side and Martin? Presumably Martin must have said something critical of Maryās late nephew at some stage and sheās taking the opportunity to put Martin under more pressure?
Her electoral record is patchy enough and Dublin Bay North will be the mother of all dogfights next year. I reckon you could have 10 or more plausible contenders there so itās going to be tough for her as an Independent.
Hard to figure her out. When she started out she was seen as something of a budding social conservative, although that was based largely on the premise that she was very close to Mary Hanifan. Sheās turned out to be quite different. Lucinda has (sort of) done a u-turn in the opposite direction.
[QUOTE=āManuel Zelaya, post: 1149294, member: 377ā]Her electoral record is patchy enough and Dublin Bay North will be the mother of all dogfights next year. I reckon you could have 10 or more plausible contenders there so itās going to be tough for her as an Independent.
Hard to figure her out. When she started out she was seen as something of a budding social conservative, although that was based largely on the premise that she was very close to Mary Hanifan. Sheās turned out to be quite different. Lucinda has (sort of) done a u-turn in the opposite direction.[/QUOTE]
Where are you getting the social conservative stuff from? She has always been big on LGBT issues and that sort of thing.
Will be very tough for her to get in as an Independent. At best sheās third in the Independent stakes behind McGrath and Broughan. She could be worse if OāCallaghan decides to run too.
[QUOTE=āRocko, post: 1149304, member: 1ā]Where are you getting the social conservative stuff from? She has always been big on LGBT issues and that sort of thing.
[/QUOTE]
As I said in my previous post, Mrs Sheahan started out as a ministerial advisor to Mary Hanifan - who is the archetypal social conservative.
[QUOTE=āRocko, post: 1149304, member: 1ā]Where are you getting the social conservative stuff from? She has always been big on LGBT issues and that sort of thing.
Will be very tough for her to get in as an Independent. At best sheās third in the Independent stakes behind McGrath and Broughan. She could be worse if OāCallaghan decides to run too.[/QUOTE]
I think Tommy Broughan will stroll in here. Bruton will pick up a seat too, obviously. I think OāRiordain will get in as well. Kenny is a goner - heās like the Invisible Man. There will no SF seat here.Terence Flanagan is a dead man walking and I reckon at least 9,000 of his 12,000 votes from the last election are up for grabs. Where these go will decide two of the seats. On the basis that at least two of the TDs have to come from the old North East of the constituency, I reckon Power will take a seat and the other seat will be between Haughey, O Muiri and McGrath. For the life of me I canāt imagine what kind of gobdaw would vote for Sean Haughey in 2016, so Iād give the last seat to McGrath, with OāMuiri the nearest challenger.
So Iād call it 1 FG, 1 Labour, 3 independents.
I donāt know where youāre pulling that one from. Her performance was poor. She finished 5th in a 3 seater and was more or less on a par with just about every other lead Fianna Fail candidate in Dublin. Hereās how Fianna Fail performed in 2011 on the northside:
Dublin North East 1st Pref Share Quota
Averil Power 4,794 11.46% 0.46
Dublin North Central -
Sean Haughey 5,017 12.94% 0.52
Dublin North West
Pat Carey 3,869 11.79% 0.47
Dublin Central
Mary Fitzpatrick 3,504 10.12% 0.51
Cyprian Brady 1,637 4.73% 0.24
Dublin North
Darragh OāBrien 4,115 8.34% 0.42
Michael Kennedy 3,519 7.13% 0.36
Dublin West
Brian Lenihan 6,421 15.12% 0.76
David McGuinness 623 1.47% 0.07
[QUOTE=āFagan ODowd, post: 1149318, member: 706ā]I think Tommy Broughan will stroll in here. Bruton will pick up a seat too, obviously. I think OāRiordain will get in as well. Kenny is a goner - heās like the Invisible Man. There will no SF seat here.Terence Flanagan is a dead man walking and I reckon at least 9,000 of his 12,000 votes from the last election are up for grabs. Where these go will decide two of the seats. On the basis that at least two of the TDs have to come from the old North East of the constituency, I reckon Power will take a seat and the other seat will be between Haughey, O Muiri and McGrath. For the life of me I canāt imagine what kind of gobdaw would vote for Sean Haughey in 2016, so Iād give the last seat to McGrath, with OāMuiri the nearest challenger.
So Iād call it 1 FG, 1 Labour, 3 independents.[/QUOTE]
Naoise OāMuiri doesnāt seem to be a particularly good vote getter. When he was first elected in the locals back in 2004, he got in by the skin of his teeth, by something like two votes. Heās another one of those who seems to be endlessly plugged by party hq but doesnāt seem to catch on with the electorate. Heās been endlessly plugged - was Lord Mayor of Dublin in 2012/13. He was on the subs bench to be MEP when Gay Mitchell ran for the presidency.
I think he made a fundamental mistake Day 1, pitching his tent in Dublin North Central. There was only ever one Fine Gael seat there and he was never going to shift Richard Bruton. Round about the same time Terence Flanagan put down roots in North East, Paschal Donohoe in Dublin Central. Maybe he might have been better, taking on Dr Bill out in Dublin North West - but then thatās about the most inhospitable FG terrain, there is in the country and they hadnāt elected a Fine Gael TD out there since Mrs Alexis Fitzgerald.
[QUOTE=āManuel Zelaya, post: 1149334, member: 377ā]Naoise OāMuiri doesnāt seem to be a particularly good vote getter. When he was first elected in the locals back in 2004, he got in by the skin of his teeth, by something like two votes. Heās another one of those who seems to be endlessly plugged by party hq but doesnāt seem to catch on with the electorate. Heās been endlessly plugged - was Lord Mayor of Dublin in 2012/13. He was on the subs bench to be MEP when Gay Mitchell ran for the presidency.
I think he made a fundamental mistake Day 1, pitching his tent in Dublin North Central. There was only ever one Fine Gael seat there and he was never going to shift Richard Bruton. Round about the same time Terence Flanagan put down roots in North East, Paschal Donohoe in Dublin Central. Maybe he might have been better, taking on Dr Bill out in Dublin North West - but then thatās about the most inhospitable FG terrain, there is in the country and they hadnāt elected a Fine Gael TD out there since Mrs Alexis Fitzgerald.[/QUOTE]
I think there are the guts of 1 and 3/4 FG seats in that constituency. OāMuiri is the most credible second candidate, but I still donāt think heāll do it because of a lack of presence in North East.
As a matter of interest there were 30,000 FF votes in this constituency in 2002 and 2007. It was the ultimate FF heartland, full of civil servants, builders, cute hoors and GAA clubs. But there were only 10,000 votes in 2011. The quota in 2016 will be around 12,500. So even if they managed to get all of those 10,000 goons to vote for Sean Haughey theyād still be a long way off a quota and Haughey has never been particularly transfer friendly.
[QUOTE=āFagan ODowd, post: 1149343, member: 706ā]I think there are the guts of 1 and 3/4 FG seats in that constituency. OāMuiri is the most credible second candidate, but I still donāt think heāll do it because of a lack of presence in North East.
As a matter of interest there were 30,000 FF votes in this constituency in 2002 and 2007. It was the ultimate FF heartland, full of civil servants, builders, cute hoors and GAA clubs. But there were only 10,000 votes in 2011. The quota in 2016 will be around 12,500. So even if they managed to get all of those 10,000 goons to vote for Sean Haughey theyād still be a long way off a quota and Haughey has never been particularly transfer friendly.[/QUOTE]
Not relevant to the discussion at hand - but I see the Fianna Fail selection convention is on in Dungarvan on Thursday night.
[QUOTE=āManuel Zelaya, post: 1149325, member: 377ā]I donāt know where youāre pulling that one from. Her performance was poor. She finished 5th in a 3 seater and was more or less on a par with just about every other lead Fianna Fail candidate in Dublin. Hereās how Fianna Fail performed in 2011 on the northside:
Dublin North East 1st Pref Share Quota
Averil Power 4,794 11.46% 0.46
Dublin North Central -
Sean Haughey 5,017 12.94% 0.52
Dublin North West
Pat Carey 3,869 11.79% 0.47
Dublin Central
Mary Fitzpatrick 3,504 10.12% 0.51
Cyprian Brady 1,637 4.73% 0.24
Dublin North
Darragh OāBrien 4,115 8.34% 0.42
Michael Kennedy 3,519 7.13% 0.36
Dublin West
Brian Lenihan 6,421 15.12% 0.76
David McGuinness 623 1.47% 0.07
[/QUOTE]
Because she was a first time candidate and proved to be very transfer friendly (in the context of FF being toxic).
Transfers in:
Dublin North East Transfers In
Averil Power 1,247 (57.7% of quota at elimination)
Dublin North Central
Sean Haughey 331 (53.5% of quota at elimination)
Dublin North West
Pat Carey 481 (53.0% of quota at elimination)
Dublin Central
Mary Fitzpatrick 2,239 (1,100 of which came from Cyprian Brady co-FF)
Cyprian Brady 116
Dublin North
Darragh OāBrien 3,952 (2,479 of which came from Kennedy co-FF)
Michael Kennedy 286
Dublin West
Brian Lenihan 1,868 (556 of which came from McGuinness co-FF)
David McGuinness 8
So the only candidates to pick up more transfers all had FF running-mates. Excluding the FF-FF transfers, only Darragh OāBrien (future leader of FF possibly) got more transfers from outside the party.
Thatās exactly the sort of electoral performance that FF need.
Or to add another way of looking at: what was the % decrease on their 2007 performance:
Dublin North East
Averil Power Loss of 28.2% share of first preference from combined 2007 candidates
Dublin North Central -
Sean Haughey Loss of 31.1% share of first preference from combined 2007 candidates
Dublin North West
Pat Carey Loss of 37.1% share of first preference from combined 2007 candidates.
Dublin Central
Mary Fitzpatrick
Cyprian Brady Combined loss of 29.6% share of first preference from combined 2007 candidates.
Dublin North
Darragh OāBrien
Michael Kennedy Combined loss of 17.4% share of first preference from combined 2007 candidates
Dublin West
Brian Lenihan Combined loss of 20.8% share of first preference from combined 2007 candidates
David McGuinness
Again, for a first time candidate, thatās very solid in an area where FF were haemorrhaging votes. The party were obviously happy with her, promoting her to the front bench and giving her the Seanad nomination.