[QUOTE=âManuel Zelaya, post: 1149334, member: 377â]Naoise OâMuiri doesnât seem to be a particularly good vote getter. When he was first elected in the locals back in 2004, he got in by the skin of his teeth, by something like two votes. Heâs another one of those who seems to be endlessly plugged by party hq but doesnât seem to catch on with the electorate. Heâs been endlessly plugged - was Lord Mayor of Dublin in 2012/13. He was on the subs bench to be MEP when Gay Mitchell ran for the presidency.
I think he made a fundamental mistake Day 1, pitching his tent in Dublin North Central. There was only ever one Fine Gael seat there and he was never going to shift Richard Bruton. Round about the same time Terence Flanagan put down roots in North East, Paschal Donohoe in Dublin Central. Maybe he might have been better, taking on Dr Bill out in Dublin North West - but then thatâs about the most inhospitable FG terrain, there is in the country and they hadnât elected a Fine Gael TD out there since Mrs Alexis Fitzgerald.[/QUOTE]
Theyâll have their best chance in years to win a seat in DNW with Noel Rock
[QUOTE=âEbeneezer Goode, post: 1148736, member: 1785â]Iâm not saying Woods will get in for fuck sake. Iâm just saying there is a Woods base there at local level and she will get the nod at the convention. Do you know what FF Cumanns are like???
Power has no one. She is hated by FF in that constituency so Woods will be there along with Sean Haughey.
There was two/three FF seats across that area for years prior to the redrawing of the constituency.
Woods/Haughey/Callely/ and not forgetting GV in Porto.
Plenty of FF supporters to get one candidate home.[/QUOTE]
Iâm just going on what I saw at the local elections counts in Citywest. Granted, she was in a different constituency, Fingal, than she would be for the GE( and that one is run by DBâs gangsta FF mates) but it was very much in evidence that she had no machine behind her. @Fagan or Rocko can check the figures I sent but she polled very poorly in her own âstrongholdâ of Verbena/Bayside. Heney is well liked in that Cumann and has served her time and Haughey is untouchable in terms of a nomination. He doesnât have enough votes to be elected though and all FF candidates will fail through poor transfers i reckon. Power has made a big play but ultimately is behind the other big independents in Broughan and McGrath. Like I said, 1 FG (Bruton)1 SF(not sure yet who is running) 1 Labour(O RiordĂĄn) Broughan, McGrath. The last three in a late night dogfight with power/haughey/ O MuirĂ. Flanagan will have left the building long before. Also, I think Rocko overrates Cian O Callaghanâs wider appeal completely.
I donât necessarily think that OâCallaghan is a genuine contender - he may be loosely allied to McGrath anyway and may not run against him. But he got 2,746 first preference votes in the locals which is a huge figure and 2,135 of those were in Dublin Bay North. Heâs really strong in Sutton/Howth/Baldoyle. Woods got 507 votes in that catchment area - supposedly her heartland as you say. She got 50 votes in all of Howth.
Hereâs how they compared in the locals. OâCallaghanâs figures are first, then Woodsâ and then the total for that box. From Baldoyle down is Dublin Bay North. Everything else is the other constituency now.
St Andrews C of I N.S., Church Road, Malahide Table 1 16 1 244
St Andrews C of I N.S., Church Road, Malahide Table 2 16 8 281
St Andrews C of I N.S., Church Road, Malahide Table 3 21 7 324
St Andrews C of I N.S., Church Road, Malahide Table 4 16 2 282
St Andrews C of I N.S., Church Road, Malahide Table 5 11 6 208
St Andrews C of I N.S., Church Road, Malahide Table 6 13 8 339
St Andrews C of I N.S., Church Road, Malahide Table 7 9 8 247
Pope John Paul N.S., Inbhir Ide Drive, Malahide Table 1 19 7 310
Pope John Paul N.S., Inbhir Ide Drive, Malahide Table 2 6 1 99
Pope John Paul N.S., Inbhir Ide Drive, Malahide Table 3 23 5 293
Pope John Paul N.S., Inbhir Ide Drive, Malahide Table 4 24 1 302
Pope John Paul N.S., Inbhir Ide Drive, Malahide Table 5 16 5 259
Pope John Paul N.S., Inbhir Ide Drive, Malahide Table 6 21 1 283
Pope John Paul N.S., Inbhir Ide Drive, Malahide Table 7 20 8 268
Pope John Paul N.S., Inbhir Ide Drive, Malahide Table 8 20 4 187
Pope John Paul N.S., Inbhir Ide Drive, Malahide Table 9 18 3 302
Pope John Paul N.S., Inbhir Ide Drive, Malahide Table 10 23 0 287
Scoil Duinninigh, Feltrim Road, Kinsealy, Swords Table 1 18 3 232
Scoil Duinninigh, Feltrim Road, Kinsealy, Swords Table 2 24 1 234
Scoil Duinninigh, Feltrim Road, Kinsealy, Swords Table 3 45 2 175
Scoil Duinninigh, Feltrim Road, Kinsealy, Swords Table 4 21 6 212
Scoil Duinninigh, Feltrim Road, Kinsealy, Swords Table 5 19 3 204
Scoil Duinninigh, Feltrim Road, Kinsealy, Swords Table 6 13 2 186
St Nicholas of Myra Hall, Kinsaley Table 1 24 7 192
St Nicholas of Myra Hall, Kinsaley Table 2 8 1 127
St Nicholas of Myra Hall, Kinsaley Table 3 12 8 228
St Nicholas of Myra Hall, Kinsaley Table 4 10 3 189
St Helen's N.S., Limetree Avenue, Portmarnock Table 1 4 4 173
St Helen's N.S., Limetree Avenue, Portmarnock Table 2 18 15 294
St Helen's N.S., Limetree Avenue, Portmarnock Table 3 10 6 309
St Helen's N.S., Limetree Avenue, Portmarnock Table 4 22 12 300
St Helen's N.S., Limetree Avenue, Portmarnock Table 5 10 22 303
St Helen's N.S., Limetree Avenue, Portmarnock Table 6 12 7 275
St Marnocks N.S., Strand Road, Portmarnock Table 1 10 2 259
St Marnocks N.S., Strand Road, Portmarnock Table 2 9 7 173
St Marnocks N.S., Strand Road, Portmarnock Table 3 11 1 243
St Marnocks N.S., Strand Road, Portmarnock Table 4 10 4 222
St Marnocks N.S., Strand Road, Portmarnock Table 5 9 8 206
Baldoyle Boys N.S., Brookstone Road, Dublin 13. Table 1 102 21 274
Baldoyle Boys N.S., Brookstone Road, Dublin 13. Table 2 99 24 349
Baldoyle Boys N.S., Brookstone Road, Dublin 13. Table 3 110 27 328
Baldoyle Boys N.S., Brookstone Road, Dublin 13. Table 4 76 26 320
Baldoyle Boys N.S., Brookstone Road, Dublin 13. Table 5 93 22 358
Baldoyle Boys N.S., Brookstone Road, Dublin 13. Table 6 82 20 344
Baldoyle Boys N.S., Brookstone Road, Dublin 13. Table 7 84 31 319
Bayside N.S., Verbena Ave, Sutton, Dublin13. Table 1 53 19 293
Bayside N.S., Verbena Ave, Sutton, Dublin13. Table 2 59 26 334
Bayside N.S., Verbena Ave, Sutton, Dublin13. Table 3 56 21 319
Bayside N.S., Verbena Ave, Sutton, Dublin13. Table 4 66 32 312
Bayside N.S., Verbena Ave, Sutton, Dublin13. Table 5 84 22 364
Bayside N.S., Verbena Ave, Sutton, Dublin13. Table 6 73 52 388
Burrow N.S., Sutton, Dublin 13. Table 1 97 16 295
Burrow N.S., Sutton, Dublin 13. Table 2 55 18 249
Burrow N.S., Sutton, Dublin 13. Table 3 103 28 343
Burrow N.S., Sutton, Dublin 13. Table 4 88 4 223
Burrow N.S., Sutton, Dublin 13. Table 5 99 26 336
Burrow N.S., Sutton, Dublin 13. Table 6 89 21 305
Scoil Mhuire N.S., Tuckets Lane, Howth, Dublin 13. Table 1 128 9 306
Scoil Mhuire N.S., Tuckets Lane, Howth, Dublin 13. Table 2 115 8 314
Scoil Mhuire N.S., Tuckets Lane, Howth, Dublin 13. Table 3 106 4 290
Scoil Mhuire N.S., Tuckets Lane, Howth, Dublin 13. Table 4 141 7 338
Scoil Mhuire N.S., Tuckets Lane, Howth, Dublin 13. Table 5 77 23 309
Why would there not be a Sinn Fein seat in a five seater that includes Coolock, Darndale, Donaghmede, Kilbarrack, Edenmore, Raheny, Harmonstown, Donnycarney, Beaumount and Artane?
In 2011 there were only 7,500 SF votes in the combined constituency. Canât see them getting near a quota and they donât get transfers. Tommy Broughan hovers up the working class vote here.
Sinn Fein havenât put boots on the ground on the Bay Area since the Howth gun running.
[QUOTE=âFagan ODowd, post: 1149611, member: 706â]In 2011 there were only 7,500 SF votes in the combined constituency. Canât see them getting near a quota and they donât get transfers. Tommy Broughan hovers up the working class vote here.
Sinn Fein havenât put boots on the ground on the Bay Area since the Howth gun running.[/QUOTE]
If Larry OâToole couldnât manage it, itâs hard to see how someone else will. And Iâm fairly certain their current thinking is to run 2 candidates which is very strange. They selected MicheĂĄl MacDonncha and Denise Mitchell to run. Both councillors in Donaghmede-Beaumont alongside Larry. Not sure what the logic in selecting two candidates from the same area to run is.
Forgot to make my point on OâCallaghan, or to make it properly.
I think heâs a danger to Powerâs chances - I donât think that translates to him having a chance to get elected. Heâs very strong in Powerâs home base. If McGrath was worried about Power and could convince OâCallaghan to run as a #2 to him then OâCallaghan would destroy Powerâs chances I think. So he may not be a realistic candidate to get elected but heâd put a big hole in Powerâs numbers if he ran.
[QUOTE=âFagan ODowd, post: 1149611, member: 706â]In 2011 there were only 7,500 SF votes in the combined constituency. Canât see them getting near a quota and they donât get transfers. Tommy Broughan hovers up the working class vote here.
Sinn Fein havenât put boots on the ground on the Bay Area since the Howth gun running.[/QUOTE]
I wouldnât rely on a traditional view of how transfers have worked in the upcoming election.
Itâll be establishment versus the rest.
SF got strong transfers from Independents, AAA, PBP & even the Green Party in Carlow/KK. They even got reasonable transfers from Renua considering how polar opposite their views would be. Basically a strong anyone but FF/FG/Labour vote.
Could be a bitter enough election Iâd say.