Absolutely correct @Fagan, Tommy Broughan sweeps up all the votes that would normally go to SF. They may still struggle but if they cant get one seat in a five seater which would have the demographic of a SF supporter, agreeing with my mate Cyd, then they will struggle in a lot of other constituencies.
I donât know if Aodhan will get in, perhaps. You would think his vote is around the Clontarf area but thatâs where Finian McGrath picked up most of his votes and Labour could tank all over the country although perhaps more in traditional Labour areas not Clontarf type. Sutton is FG.
Broughan is de faco Labour, Dublin North East had two Labour last time but I cant in the life of me see them get two seats. Perhaps with his profile, O;Riordan could pick up transfers from certain areas and will be transfer friendly but it will still be a dogfight.
Im sticking my neck out and saying SF will pick up a seat here. I donât know why they are running two and could split whatever vote they could get but Michael Mac Donncha is strong on the ground around Larryâs old stomping ground so if there is a swing heâll gain.
I cant see FG picking up a second seat with a huge North East demographic and without Porto who got Terence elected last time, Im guessing the last seat will be traditional FF being Sean Haughey or the Labour gay boy who @The Selfish Giant used to bully Aodhan OâRiordan.
I see it as;
FG 1 â Richard Bruton
Ind 1 - Tommy Broughan
Ind 2 â Finian McGrath
SF 1 â Michael MacDonncha.
Sean Haughey v Aodhan OâRiordan
Unforturnately I cannot see Ms Power elected even with Rocko as Director of ElectionsâŚ
thats a clamping right there!
doesnt matter how many injunctions Denis OâBrien or Juhnialo dish out, the truth about corruption and the bypassing of planning regulations by reconstituting what was hitherto a gable end of a residential house as the primary entrance, will come out in the end.
[QUOTE=âcroppy, post: 1152317, member: 230â]thats a clamping right there!
doesnt matter how many injunctions Denis OâBrien or Juhnialo dish out, the truth about corruption and the bypassing of planning regulations by reconstituting what was hitherto a gable end of a residential house as the primary entrance, will come out in the end.[/QUOTE]
The entrance is the same door as it ever was. Itâs the east wing which you claim to be irregular.
It has come to my attention that Averil Power is actively considering not running in the next GE, hoping to save her Seanad seat instead. Not many of the local FFers switching with her apparently.
I think @Manuel_Zelaya owes me an apology too. Pretending to be intimately familiar with the behind the scenes workings of the constituency by emphatically agreeing on Woods. Woods has been a pathetic failure. She had no chance.
As the man on the ground there, maybe you owe us all an apology for barely giving lip service to Cllr Heneyâs chances. Objective analysis was blinded by your weird crush/obsession with Averil Power.
Ms Heney is a formidable candidate. She has a profile right across the northside. Started out as Noel Ahernâs constituency secretary and was elected as a Cllr in Ballymun in 1999 before moving to contest DNC in 2002 and then moved her council seat to Clontarf.
She has been a bit unlucky over the years in that various boundary changes and circumstances conspired against her. She very nearly nabbed a third seat for FF in 2002 in DNC but later that constituency went down to a 3-seater (with 2 sitting TDs in 2007). She couldnât/wouldnât run in 2011 when FF were in damage limitation mode. Arguably she should have been selected in Dublin NE in 2011 ahead of Averil â the other speculation was in 2007 she might get the nod to be Bertieâs runningmate, but while she would undoubtedly have been elected ahead of Cyprian, Dublin Central does nothing for career advancement. I thought she might have gone for Europe at various stages but it doesnât look like it was ever considered.
I give her a very good chance of getting elected. With Heney and Finian in the mix plus Richard Bruton all down the Clontarf end, Aodhan faces a pretty impossible task.
Heney was discussed way back in post 13 when I mentioned her long rivalry with Haughey.
Woods never had a hope. Even a thicko like Woods herself seemed to realise that. Your ridiculous shit about Woods being a viable candidate has been exposed for bluff. Waffling on about Heney now is a fantastic bit of after-timing.
Iâd direct you back to my very first post on the subject of Fianna Failâs election prospects. I opined that Sean Haughey represented Fianna Failâs best prospect of a seat. Iâm still of that view and expected Haughey to get the nomination at the convention - so I was wrong on that front. I never made any comment that Woods would be a strong candidate. I felt Woods was a strong contender and could well get the nomination for a gender balanced ticket. Its happening up and down the country, across the political divide, makeweight female candidates put on election tickets to satisfy gender quotas. It was hardly the 688 votes she garnered last summer in Beaumont Donaghmede last summer that had Stephanie Regan put up for the Fine Gael nomination with Richard Bruton or Naoise O Muiri.
Whatâs boring and irrelevant on this thread is your creepy obsession with Averil Power and your ridiculous assertion that Averil Power did well in the 2011 election.
[quote=âGeoffreyBoycott, post:138, topic:20409â]
Iâd direct you back to my very first post on the subject of Fianna Failâs election prospects. I opined that Sean Haughey represented Fianna Failâs best prospect of a seat. Iâm still of that view and expected Haughey to get the nomination at the convention - so I was wrong on that front. [/quote]
You said: âHeney seemingly wants to run as well.â After she won the nomination you are saying she âis a formidable candidateâŚâ and you âgive her a very good chance of getting elected.â Why did you never mention this before?
[quote=âGeoffreyBoycott, post:138, topic:20409â]
I never made any comment that Woods would be a strong candidate. I felt Woods was a strong contender and could well get the nomination for a gender balanced ticket. [/quote]
Wouldnât it be nice if you were that balanced? You actually said: âMichael Woods daughter will get nominated (with Sean Haughey).â Most of the discussion has been about how Aileen Woods had no chance. You ignorantly guessed wrongly and joined the wrong side of that argument.
[quote=âGeoffreyBoycott, post:138, topic:20409â]
Its happening up and down the country, across the political divide, makeweight female candidates put on election tickets to satisfy gender quotas. It was hardly the 688 votes she garnered last summer in Beaumont Donaghmede last summer that had Stephanie Regan put up for the Fine Gael nomination with Richard Bruton or Naoise O Muiri.[/quote]
But when you spoke about gender-balanced tickets you said âFianna Fail were always going to run at least two and it was going to be a gender balance ticket. There should be just about a Fianna Fail seat there, but whether it was Woods, Mrs Sheahan (or both of them) running with Haughey, there was only going to be one winner there from the Fianna Fail tent.â
So you forgot to give Heney a ringing endorsement that time, preferring instead to persist with the ill-informed guesswork on Woods.
She did fine. Your assertions that Woods was a viable candidate were absurd and completely incorrect. Throwing all this Heney talk around afterwards is a boring and irrelevant distraction that your âanalysisâ was pathetic.
I havenât the time to read back through the thread. Tell me this did you make any prediction as who would get the Fianna Fail nomination or better still did you predict Heney to get it? If you called it for Heney and direct me to the post, fair play to you, an apology will be forthcoming. All I can recall you doing though was championing Averil Power? I certain wonât be apologising if you just sat on the fence and didnât call it.
I made a judgement call, predicted Haughey to get the nod with Woods as the makeweight on the ticket to appease the gender lobby. I called it wrong.
?