Didnāt realise he was a social democrat now. Iād agree with you so.
Flip flop.
Whereās my airer? Broken promises.
Odds finally up for this constituency, the last of the 40 to have odds posted.
Some weeks ago I predicted 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF and 2 Independents (McGrath, Broughan) to take the seats and this is also what Paddy Power go for.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-constituencies?ev_oc_grp_ids=2228255
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Informative rating.
He has but she wont need it
wouldnt it be great if avril and macquerdon didnt get in
O riordĆ in is free money at evens there lads
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Just back after driving through some of this constituency lads. Holy shit. The competition for lamposts is ridiculous. Jimmy Guerin looks like a comedy candidate with his playing card joker style poster. Averil powers gambit of producing various multicoloured posters is excellent. It catches your attention and really emphasises the turncoat factor. Damien something with the tilted shaved head is straight out of an American charge sheet photo.
Averill Powerās election literature is dreadful. Lots of quotes about her, lots of pictures of her doing fashion for charity, references to white collar boxing fundraising and crap like that. No policy.
O riordĆ in into 8/11 now.
No surprise in the surge in support for him. The return of Room To Improve to our screens on Sunday night will doubtless have increased the numbers of people who may need planning permission in the future.
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Thatās a particularly poor effort.
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A bit of a coup to get David Baddiel to canvass for him:
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Kincora Rd, Clontarf.
Having considered the constituency further, I would make the following points.
All of Bruton, McGrath, OāRiordain and Haughey are from the same end of the constituency, Clontarf/Marino and I think it is impossible that all four will be elected. In fact I think it is unlikely that 3 will get in.
I donāt get the favourites tag for McGrath. I donāt think he will poll well at all in the West or North of the constituency.
Broughan has been virtually invisible on my side of the constituency. He barely has a poster up. Iāve seen no canvassers for him at all. I think he is in serious danger.
I think there are at least two left wing seats in the West of the constituency. I donāt see Broughan getting one. I think it will be one SF, and one AAA.
If there is any move towards the SDs I think OāCallaghan is in with a real shout. I think he will poll well in Howth and Sutton and Baldoyle and if he stays in long enough will pick up transfers every where.
Iām going to go out on a limb here and call it as I see it today.
1 FG
1 Lab
1 SF
1 AAA
1 SD
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Thatās a very left wing outlook for that constituency @fagan. (Please insert labour joke here). Raheny, howth, Sutton, clontarf Marino are all older demographics and would traditionally vote more conservatively. Canāt see it myself. Think McGrath will get in and no Aaa. Also think mcdonncha is not definite.
Yes but if you look at the relative populations in the area you will see that the population on the eastern half of the constituency has been in decline while the western half has been n the increase. You have vast tracts of housing there in Belmayne, Clongriffin and Coast where it is impossible to assume anything about how the vote will go, if they vote at all. I also think that SF and AAA will get a vote out in Coolock and Darndale that has never been got out before.
People look at this constituency and think Clontarf and Howth, how very middle class when in reality these are only two small enclaves in the constituency. I think the constituency has the potential to elect three left wingers, if the vote is got out.
OāRiordain is 12/1 to be the next Labour leader.
Given that the Alex White is likely to lose his seat and Brendan Howlinās time is now surely done, heāll be against Ged Nash, Sean Sherlock and Willie Penrose.
Great value there is you think heāll win his seat.