That Jeff Sessions bet was not a good prediction. The second prediction looks better.
If the US goes into a serious recession before Nov 2020, he has zero chance of being re-elected. Itās hard to unseat an incumbent, but a recession historically does it (Bush 1). A recession is almost guaranteed as regardless of the fact the US economy is still going strong, China and the EU have slowed which will slow the growth of US multinationals. The best that Trump can hope for is a very shallow recession that starts soon and is over by Nov 2020.
The other thing he has potentially going for him is the Democrats fucking up by adopting a platform that canāt win in the swing states, lax border security / abolishing ICE, free health care for illegals (when 10 million Americans donāt have insurance), raising taxes on the middle class, eliminating private insurance, etc.
If the Democrats run a sensible, centrist candidate it will be hard for Trump to win as he just about defeated Clinton who was very unpopular. He could certainly do it though, and at this stage I would say its 50:50 with the economy next fall the deciding factor.
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Heās even money
I think Trump will be the next president but Iād agree with @balbec that he might well trail the Democratic candidate in the run up to the election so Iāll hold fire on backing him until then.
Canāt believe the amount of ye who think heāll get in again. There are any number of pitfalls could trip him up by November 2020. @anon7035031 threw another valid one in there in the shape of a recession before then which is another thing would derail him.
The Democratic candidate will almost certainly get more votes in reality but thereās a very good chance the election will be rigged in Trumpās favour - who knows, it may even have been last time - if it was, itās unlikely weād have found out - attempts were made to hack all 50 states plus DC last time and the Republicans in Congress refuse to countenance election security measures
Trump has now got rid of his Director of National Intelligence because he actually took the threat seriously and replaced him with yet another lackey
This is in addition to the already wide ranging voter suppression and propaganda and interference efforts that will be ramped up to 11
The US is effectively a third world country when it comes to voting systems
So youād be foolish to back against Trump in bare betting terms
Youād also want to have a gambling problem to be betting much money on something at evens
By hook or by crook heāll do two terms. Heās doing a fine job imo.
There will be no hook or crook .
Ok mate. Iāll take a perceived gambling problem for betting against something at evens any day over the many, many problems you have.
I disagree with the statement anyway in general terms in the strongest possible way. It is a grossly ignorant and misinformed view that someone who bets a lot on an even money poke could have a gambling problem. But then again being ignorant and misinformed on a topic hasnāt stopped you before from making sweeping statements that youāll argue till the cows come home on and ruin any amount of threads you like with the boundless amounts of time you have on your hands once youāve got out of the scratcher. I have no notion to debate this now back and forth with you and ruin another thread so that is my one retort about that point.
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Correct the key to betting is finding the wrong price. If you can find a 8/15 shot at evens then youāll do ok. Looks to me trump is only going you get bigger.
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Up there with the most stupid statements youāve ever made and, by Christ, is that saying something
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Home truths tend to touch a nerve
They certainly did with you
What sort of person is preoccupied with an even money shot on something thatās over 15 months away?
A person with a gambling problem, thatās who
Tis hard to keep up with it all sometimes.
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It was free money pal, have a look at the results
Did you seek help immediately?
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Why would I pal, Iām not the one with a gambling problem
You sound like you might have one too 
You said yourself the election is fixed mate. Only a mug wouldnāt be lumping on.
Whatās lumping on, pal
Give me a monetary figure there
Whatās the cut off point for having a problem?
Come on, pal, donāt be shy, give me a monetary figure for what amounts to ālumping onā
ā¬5?
ā¬10?
ā¬20?