Are they at that level already ???
There was a guy on Twitter who was/is an expert on politics betting. I canât remember his name but I think he might be an American living in the UK. Anyone have the Twitter account? Maybe @Mac might follow him (guessing)?
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Not much off it
Wasnât expecting a correct answer so quickly, good man.
PP have a lot of jokey Trump specials (odds for Trump to get penis enhancement surgery, etc.)
They include the following good value bets:-
Sessions to still be AG on 1 Jan 2019 @ 4/7
Trump to complete his first term @ 1/2
Trump to not resign during his first term @ 1/5
Trump maxed out on his possible electoral college score last time. He wonât win any state he didnât win then.
Turnout, especially black turnout, was the major reason Clinton didnât get to 270, as well as a statistical freak. If Trump is still there in 2020, the Democratic base will be hugely energised regardless of who the candidate is, which should push them towards 68 or 69 million votes again. Trump only got just shy of 63 million and itâs hard to see him increasing much on that. Appealing to your base is one thing but it pushes away the floaters and Trump is appealing exclusively to his base.
If Harris is the candidate, black turnout will be massive again. People can talk about the mid-west all they want, but Florida and North Carolina are also two very winnable states, especially with a black candidate, and Trump (or whoever the candidate is) will be gone if they fall, regardless of what happens in the mid-west.
Then the Republicans will be defending wafer thin margins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, and even with Harris as candidate, itâs hard to see them holding onto any of them, frankly. Ohio will also be very much in play. Trumpâs approval rating in all of these states has fallen by between 14 and 18 points from January 2017.
If Sanders or Biden is the candidate, or somebody younger like Joe Kennedy or this Beto OâRourke chap from Texas, or even Elizabeth Warren, Trump/Pence/A.N Other will have a very difficult time holding onto the mid-west.
Iâm not sure Trumpâs permanent campaigning mode will do him any good either if he is still there in two yearsâ time. Heâs never stopped doing these ridiculous rallies and people get sick of that sort of thing. It also means any rallies in two yearsâ time sort of lose their effect because everybody has seen it all before a hundred times.
Heâll likely need some serious Russian interference and voter suppression to win.
The democrats are relying on Trump repelling voters the way he did in 2016. If the soccer moms have started to feel like this is the new normal then the Democrats are in big trouble. If not then itâs winnable. Trumpâs campaign should just be âeconomy economy economyâ and if he sticks to that it will be powerful.
I can see this black woman failing to connect with the soccer moms in the same way Obama did though. Fuck it, I guess they like Oprah.
Tulsi Gabbard on Joe Rogan podcast. 
Sheâs a young bright Congresswoman from Hawaii with military experience having tours in Iraq and Kuwait.
Given that you can get 66/1 on Eminem and 50/1 on the Rock, Iâve seen far worse 80/1 shots.
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She also visited Assad and takes a pro-Assad view in everything she says on the subject, almost like sheâs an RT âjournalistâ.
Not a hope.
Yes. Sheâd be ripped apart over her stance on Syria.
I donât expect any of the above to be candidates but at least three would have a far batter chance if they were.
LONG BORING POST ON THE 2020 ELECTION BETTING
Tension has been building in the markets all week as a succession of US data has shown the worldâs biggest economy growing strongly. Consumer confidence, a health check on the service sector and private-sector jobs growth have all pointed to continued solid expansion.
âA simple dynamic is playing out in the global economy right now â the US is booming, while most of the rest of the world slows or even stagnates,â said HSBC economist Kevin Logan.
I still just find it so hard to see past Trump. 13/8 looks a fucking steal to me, he should be 1/2 instead. If he had gone for a less divisive presidential style heâd be a walk in.
To be honest Iâm not sure if Nixonâs southern strategy has been that great a success for Republicans. I appreciate that seems a very strange thing to say and flies in the face of conventional thinking. Nixon left office 44 years ago. Since then Republicans have been in office for 24 of those 44 years - only very slightly over 50% of the time. And they got very lucky on the elections for W. Bush & Trump where as when Democrats win they tend to win by a landslide. However I do also recognise that the Southern Strategy just acknowledged the natural fault lines of American society. Like maybe it was unavoidable that one of the parties would do that.
What I mean is that itâs almost unbelievable that Trump has a huge booming economy but heâs still fancied to lose this election, just through him being such a cunt.
I think the experts and pollsters underestimated Trump before and I think theyâre doing the same again. I donât think the 13/8 will last that much longer.
The Republican base backs Trump hard on Kavanaugh/Ford and I donât think theyâll care about the NYT tax-fraud story. I think Trump was right when he said he could kill someone if he wanted. Theyâve already decided they donât care about Mueller. Trump could probably get away with Watergate in my opinion.
The whole of the US has gone insane, I donât see one sensible person. Both sides accept the complete partisan-politicisation of their Supreme Court.
So the recommendation is bet hard on Trump at 13/8 now with a few value bets on the Democrats before their odds shorten. A few thoughts on the Democratic front runners:-
Kamala Harris - Iâve already money down here. Did quite well out of Kavanaugh, has gone from 8/1 to 7/1
Sanders - no chance IMO
Newsom - has a chance vs Trump if he wins the nomination.Too good looking, teeth too white, comes across as vaguely creepy. I donât think heâll win the nomination because heâll remind democrats of Kerry and Gore.
Beto OâRourke - Social media darling. Serious dark horse for nomination. 20/1 for US President. Worth a punt before the Texas vote on November 6th. For me if he beats Cruz then he will be the Democratic nominee. Wonât beat Trump IMO. Seems to me the quintessential Democrat loser in the Dukakis mold but thereâll be a great cash-out opportunity.
Warren - she could actually beat Trump, although Iâd make Trump favourite. No momentum that I can see.
The Rock - says he wonât run. Would have beaten Trump IMO.
In summary bet hard on Trump and put money on Harris and OâRourke as outsiders to cash out later on.
Also PP have 2 Trump specials going that are just free money -
Jeff Sessions to still be AG on 1 Jan 2019 @ 1/2
Trump to complete his first term @ 1/2
That Jeff Sessions special is notable because I put money on it at the same odds a month ago and now weâve less than 3 months to go but no shortening.
Elizabeth Warren could beat trump .
Beto OâRourke likely wonât even win the Senate seat for Texas, a Democrat hasnt taken that in 30 years. Itâs a big leap of faith to go from there to saying heâs got a big chance at 20/1 to be the next democratic Presidential candidate.
Brexit Party to win by election at 10/11 is good value. Peterborogh voted leave remain and this will be on the back of the European elections and ensuing publicity. Voters now identify far more with what side of Brexit divide they are on than party political identity.
@RaymondCrotty do you think the greens willl do well in the paddy local and euro elections? If so whatâs the bet? Spoke to a leading figure in the CiarĂĄn cuffe campaign who was bullish about his chances
They will do well and I think Cuffe will get in. His odds have shortened a lot in past two weeks. Peterborough is where to go in @Funtime
So they voted remain last time now your saying party of leave will win even though shift nationally is the other way? Or am I missing something ?
Also where do I back Peterborough - ladbroeks?