Sorry they voted leave (61%). Ladbrokes. Canāt back it in Cambodia. Local bookies donāt have market for it would you believe.
CUnts are living in a fucking bubble , most of them probably couldnāt find Peterborough on a map
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What do U want on it?
Be brave.
3rd or 4th?
Or Cambodia.
Probably 4th. PPower appear to be paying 4th.
Iām putting this in here as it has a better chance of not getting swept away in another 500 post argument about US politics from the usual suspects and I hope this doesnāt get dragged down with the various US threads of which I havenāt had the stomach to look into for a few months now.
I think Trump is a crazy price at even money to be the next president. You can lay it at 2.02 right now on betfair for plenty of money and I am very happy having the field against him. I think whoever comes through for the democrats will eventually be favorite to beat him and there is even the chance that 1. he isnāt the Republican candidate at all (I know this is unlikely but these are strange times in politics and he is toxic, if someone like Nicki Haley made a run at him I wouldnāt be betting the house on him getting the Republican vote at all) and 2. he might die or be ineligible on health grounds (a lot can happen in 15 months to an old man under stress in his 70s who lives on fast food)
Iām hoping the usual muppets donāt derail this but letās hear from the experts on elections like @RaymondCrotty and @balbec . Am I wrong here, do ye strongly suspect Trump to win as long as he doesnāt keel over first?
Trump will be nominated, he will trail whatever Democrat is nominated in the opinion polls and he will win the one poll that counts.
He will probably have to expand on the number of votes got last time to win though and i can only see that being the same or declining, so on that basis he shouldnāt win, if he is their running candidate at all.
bump.
I appreciate the attempt at some proper discussion. I think heās a far stronger candidate this time round compared to last time but that said the economy figures released this week suggest the economy is slowing down.
The only way he wont be nominated is if he dies.
That Jeff Sessions bet was not a good prediction. The second prediction looks better.
If the US goes into a serious recession before Nov 2020, he has zero chance of being re-elected. Itās hard to unseat an incumbent, but a recession historically does it (Bush 1). A recession is almost guaranteed as regardless of the fact the US economy is still going strong, China and the EU have slowed which will slow the growth of US multinationals. The best that Trump can hope for is a very shallow recession that starts soon and is over by Nov 2020.
The other thing he has potentially going for him is the Democrats fucking up by adopting a platform that canāt win in the swing states, lax border security / abolishing ICE, free health care for illegals (when 10 million Americans donāt have insurance), raising taxes on the middle class, eliminating private insurance, etc.
If the Democrats run a sensible, centrist candidate it will be hard for Trump to win as he just about defeated Clinton who was very unpopular. He could certainly do it though, and at this stage I would say its 50:50 with the economy next fall the deciding factor.
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Heās even money
I think Trump will be the next president but Iād agree with @balbec that he might well trail the Democratic candidate in the run up to the election so Iāll hold fire on backing him until then.
Canāt believe the amount of ye who think heāll get in again. There are any number of pitfalls could trip him up by November 2020. @anon7035031 threw another valid one in there in the shape of a recession before then which is another thing would derail him.
The Democratic candidate will almost certainly get more votes in reality but thereās a very good chance the election will be rigged in Trumpās favour - who knows, it may even have been last time - if it was, itās unlikely weād have found out - attempts were made to hack all 50 states plus DC last time and the Republicans in Congress refuse to countenance election security measures
Trump has now got rid of his Director of National Intelligence because he actually took the threat seriously and replaced him with yet another lackey
This is in addition to the already wide ranging voter suppression and propaganda and interference efforts that will be ramped up to 11
The US is effectively a third world country when it comes to voting systems
So youād be foolish to back against Trump in bare betting terms
Youād also want to have a gambling problem to be betting much money on something at evens
By hook or by crook heāll do two terms. Heās doing a fine job imo.
There will be no hook or crook .