Labour @4/1 to win most seats in election is decent value. Tories look like an absolute shambles at present and are not playing to the centre ground at all. Deselection of those who voted against government will lose them some seats though they may still stand for election under Tory banner. So too will the continuing playing to pretty much No Dealers only. There is a sizeable percentage of No Dealers in the UK but how the vote splits in general election is not easy to predict. It will be interesting to see what Brexit Party do as if they stand candidates this could harm Tories. While Remain vote is even more fragmented nationally I think locally it could work pretty well. Arithmetic means if Labour are close to level on polling with Tories they should get most seats. At moment they trail by about 8% but after last nights events in Commons I could see that changing. As scrutiny of election campaign happens Boris will look more and more like a guy who is chancing it. Voters are so entrenched in their positions it will probably only move a smallish cohort but still enough to make a difference. Either way regardless of election result turbulence to continue.
Paragraphs next time please but yes. Boris and his weiordo advisor have clearly lost the plot. Grab the 4s while you can
Outside of Corbyn, the bookies have 79yr old Ken Clarke as the second fav to be next prime minister, albeit 16/1 but not unfathomable according to bookies odds. He was on newsnight earlier saying he won’t be running in the next general election. It couldn’t happen could it? It’d be some craic if Ken Clarke was prime minister for a few months.
Listen and listen well if there is any election back borris. Stop this what if shite. Back Boris
Sorry for missing this @Smark. Would agree with your assertion but take that with pinch of salt as I know fair bit more about UK politics than politics in the USA.
Almost no chance unfortunately.
The Ken Clarke one requires a very specific set of circumstances that while not unthinkable are unlikely as things stand currently.
It would need to be as the head of some sort of unity government, to prevent Boris from taking a no deal but at the moment it looks likely they will get the bills passed that they require in this short window and then call a general election and let that be a referendum on no deal basically.
It’s going to be some shit show of a general election. The conservatives will have to go way right to counter the Brexit party and any moderate with a bit of backbone they had left has just crossed the isle and won’t stand in the next election. They’ll have to be careful not to be splitting the vote in places as well they might end up with no seat.
Labour are only after half heartedly coming to the table in the last few weeks so I think that will cost them in a lot of people’s eyes. Third parties like the lib dems, greens and SNP will perform strongly I think. Again they’ll have to be careful not to split votes as well.
Going to backtrack on this slightly @smark. I think chances are increasing (though still unlikely).
If Johnson breaks the law MPs will have two weeks to select a PM who can garner a majority in the House. Clarke could well be the logical person to coalesce around for the following reason
- He is Father of House
- Has no personal future political ambitions
- Well respected by SNP, Labour and Lib Dems (for a Tory)
All that being said still think its unlikely as so many variables and unpredictable scenarios. Clarke is still available at 16/1 so I shall be placing very small bet on. Unprecedented times.
Hillary Clinton has surprisingly steadily come in on the betting for next president over the past two weeks or so. I know a few weeks ago she was 150 & 160+ but on betfair now she is 80.0 with a queue to back her at 90.0 upwards from various punters. I’d have thought the longer time goes on her price should be going the other way, rather than coming in. Has she made any definitive statement that she will not be running again? It would be dreadfully boring and anti climatic if she took on Trump again.
Personally I think it was one of the great tragedies of British politics that circumstances dictated that Kenneth Clarke never became leader of the Conservatives or Prime Minister.
I see that the odds on Paddy Power of a second no confidence vote taking place in the UK during 2019 are 5/6, unchanged from yesterday, but presumably those odds will crumble within the next hour.
I just threw €20 on it
Serious steam behind Hillary Clinton in the outright markets she’s steadily coming in all the time. She’s now 44.00 on betfair with a queue to back her at 50.0. Is this happening a late run from Hillary? It’s very unusual the closer to 2020 we get the shorter her price is coming in despite no declaration yet that she is running. 
I can’t see her get the nomination but if she did she’d be beaten again I think
Bannon has predicted today that she will enter the race yet.
2020 US Presidential Election - Mike Bloomberg 100/1
Get it while you can
Dublin Mid-West By Election:
Peter Kavanagh (Green) 5/1
Is no over all majority value at 3/1 ? Judging by family who live in England and social media I’m struggling to see how the tories win it out.
Go for it. Put no more than a grand on it though.
Seek help lads