Thereās a lot of shy tories about. Thereās an awful lot of middle class middle income people around Manchester at least who would naturaly vote Labour, but are really struggling to vote for corbyn.
The polls are odd. Iāve never ever been asked my intentions, nor has anyone I know. Iām not sure where they get the figures. I also think most working people just donāt answer the phone anymore if they donāt recognise the number.
Bullet points refer to @Juhniallio above.
What price is he to lose his seat in 2020?
Conservatives over 344 seats @ 5/6 is buying money - theyāll wipe the floor with labour.
Maybe.
Denise Mitchell to get elected for sf in Dublin bay north. @ evens is free money in my book. Sf had over 8000 first preference last time and would be around the same this time I imagine but her running mate last time Marty Feldman isnāt running. So she just has to be above John Lyons to receive his share of transfers. Iām hitting PP tomorrow to lump on.
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Are you ruling out Tommy B in that scenario?
I think sheāll outpoll him alright. She cleaned up around Artane last time did she not?
2/1 or over Iām all ears. even money is even money for a reason .
@Rocko @Fagan_ODowd
What do ye make of cian Ć² Callaghans chances? Heās 3/1, will benefit hugely from the absence of both averil power and finian mcnutjob. Heāll be transfer friendly and is a savage councillor but is fairly isolated in the constituency. Mostly just howth baldoyle area. Maybe if the social democrats have a good campaign heāll get a lift but had be scrambling for the last seat against the greens and brought imo. Heāll outperform the price but not get elected most likely.
I think Tommy b is done. We all love the sight and site of his caravan in donaghmede but think hes just too long in the tooth now.
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Yeah I agree with that. Heāll be concentrated around the peninsula for votes but not sure heāll do well in other parts of the constituency. He has a stupid number of posters up around here but I donāt see him actually making much headwind outside his current base
Even money on a lady who is running for a party who are at 19 % in the polls. In a five seater in Dublin. With a load of disadvantaged areas.she should be heavy odds on.
Yeah I canāt disagree with this. Second runners for FF and FG are weak anyway and she will definitely find it easier without McGrath. Only concern is that OāCallaghan transfers heavily to Broughan as they have some shared history but Iām happy to join you in recommending a Mitchell vote.
Paddy power on an account Iām using will allow me a max of ā¬35 on whichever candidate I want to back for a seat. Thatās if they are evens, 3/1 or 16/1, or any price. Odd that theyād limit the stake as opposed to the return. Are the rest of ye allowed any more on? Iāll have to go to a shop to put anything other than a mickey mouse bet on.
I just checked thereā¦ Max bet ā¬50.
One of you cunts is putting money on. Shes in to 10/11
Walk of Shame here.
They allow me ā¬98 on OāDonoghue at 11/4 , ā¬118 on Jan OāSullivan at 6/5, ā¬50 on Clare Keating at 11/2
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Iām also allowed 110 on Jan.
Right then, a no-friend of the forum.
Who will knock out one of the fg pair?
They shared 40.9% in 2011 & 34.8% in 2016. They got two seats with 1.4 quotas. A drop of 1000 votes / 2.5% in a lighter candidate pool would do it. Both were elected short of a quota last time.
OāRourke took 14.0% last time for SF and has a further with 11% of the vote up for grabs from left side candidates of 2016 not running. Labour will recover a share of that but there will be enough in play to make it.
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I think Helen McEntee will be fine, but Reginaās seat to be the more risky seat of the two.
Lesson learned. You put the bet on and then you spread the good news.
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