Money down! @anon61878697. Any chance you could give me an honest non sf appraisal of your boy donnchadh Ć² laoghaire? Heās 6/4 to be re-elected. Which seems big. Even in the FF kingdom of Munster.
The constituency has 2/3 real working class areas and then some of the most affluent areas of Cork so itās a real mixed bag. I dont know if it will work in his favour that thereās three really big hitters in there - Mick Martin, Michael McGrath and Simon Coveney ā The last time out he ousted Buttimer of FG ā a real slime ball. I think he might out perform him again due to backlash against FG - cant see them getting 2 seats hereā¦ So that leaves the Greens - Bouge or whatever her name is ā she did well at local elections but the change of wards in Cork really hampered SF and iām not sure this will translate to national ā but Carrigaline is also in this constituency - huge numbers - and SF have no real foot hold there ā a lot of the vote there will be coming from new enough house owners also - the place has seen a huge influx of new homes over the last 10 years, laods of new housing estates - so iām not sure there will be a housing back lash there as building still continues - Greens might get the protest vote here and it will be a real scramble for transfers.
I think heāll be pushed to the pin of his collar - If he can get a strong turn out in Mahon, Togher and Ballyphehane he has a shot but I think the odds are about right.
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Any sites have odds for Rathdown and for Dun Laoghaire?
Time to collect. Tommy is out. 
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Sheās only in to 4/7. Plenty value there still.
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The Grand Coalition 14/1
Just saw an unreal bet on PP. Sinn Fein to have over 14.55% of the first preference vote, odds of 5/6.
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Their line on number of seats is very low as well if thereās any sort of a move to SF. You are getting 5/6 for them to basically end up with the same number of seats as the last time
I didnāt see that FFG debate last night but going by the comments here SF though not present emerged as the real opposition and weāre the real winners. If polls move to SF on the basis of the debate last night then today might be the day to get value.
Also, depending on what exactly was said between Varadkar and Martin and the āelection pactā between them that I read about on here, a FF minority government at 14/1 might be value but Iām OK that already.
Pretty sure a poll on here before the last election saw Sinn Fein gain an overall majority 
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Boylesports line is over 19.5 @4/5 which would mean youād be okay if they lost a couple of seats. Surely value there?
Can someone go through them there for me and tell me if they are likely to pick up/lose many from the last election. List below of outgoing Shinners with a very unscientific method of using PP odds to determine their likelyhood to be reelected.
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Gerry Adams Louth - Gone
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John Brady for Wicklow - Cert
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Pat Buckley for Cork East - Very Likely
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SeƔn Crowe for Dublin South-West - Cert
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David Cullinane Waterford - Cert
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Pearse Doherty Donegal - Cert
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Dessie Ellis Dublin North West - Very Likely
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Martin Ferris for Kerry - Gone
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Kathleen Funchion CarlowāKilkenny - Possible
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Martin Kenny SligoāLeitrim - Very Likely
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Mary Lou McDonald TD for Dublin Central - Cert
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Denise Mitchell Dublin Bay North - Likely
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Imelda Munster Louth - Cert
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Jonathan OāBrien Cork North-Central - Gone
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Eoin Ć Broin TD for Dublin Mid-West - Cert
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CaoimhghĆn Ć CaolĆ”in CavanāMonaghan - Gone
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Donnchadh Ć Laoghaire for Cork South-Central - Likely
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Louise OāReilly for Dublin Fingal - Likely
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Aengus Ć Snodaigh for Dublin South-Central - Cert
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Maurice Quinlivan for Limerick - Cert
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Brian Stanley for Laois - Very Likely
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Mark Ward Dublin Mid West - Possible
Theyāve 3 gone.
9 Certs
4 Very likely - basically certs but not as certy as the others
3 likely- should be safe
2 possibles well in the hunt but not nailed on
Even a half decent day thereās 18 there alone, without looking at anyone new.
You can add to that list Carthy in Monaghan who appears to be a good thing.
So thatās 19.
Then I make it 11 more seats where theyāve a chance on a good day, some chances are better than others.
Wexford, Meath East & West, Louth for a 2nd, Donegal for a 2nd, Kildare South, Kerry, Dublin West, Dublin mid West, Cork South Central & Dublin Mid West.
Seems a cracking bet to me. They could be looking at 25 or so without doing anything major.
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The overround on the constituency betting is off the chain.
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You can upgrade Louise Reilly and Denise Mitchell to certs
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Good write up and youāre probably right about most of those but my sources tell me Dessie Ellis isnāt a lock to hold his seat despite 1/5 odds.
Is Quinlivan that much of a cert in Limerick city too? I think heās terrible but then heāll get plenty of votes from Moyross and Southill and these areas I suppose. Kieran OāDonnell was terrible on the news the other night while being interviewed on a cold night beside the Shannon, his nose was running like a tap and he never made a move to resolve it. I donāt see how anyone who watched that could vote for him. The other FG candidate seems to have no profile at all though so I think FGās seat in the city is in danger. I think Jan OāSullivan will surprise someone or other in the city and hold her seat.
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Maurice Quinlivan isnāt certain as SF lost out badly in the last local elections. The only thing he has going for him is that Jan OāSulliuvan and Labour are not going great either. With Leddin tipped to continue the Green party wave through the country. That leaves one of Quinlivan or OāSullivan to loose out.
In Limerick City I think itās going to be FF1, FG1, (Green1, SF1, LAB1), with one of the last three to loose out.
I think Quinlivan is far from a cert; odds are way too generous imo.
However, I think the two Fine Gael candidates are absolutely terrible which is presumably while he is so favoured. Donāt think Collins is impressive at all either, and if Willie isnāt fully supporting him either, he could struggle.
I reckon Jan is great value tbh; people seem to generally like her. She got in last time when Labour were decimated. With Michael Noonan gone and I suspect a decrease in Quinlivanās vote, I reckon sheāll get in again.
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Iāve had a cut off Pa Daly (SF) in Kerry at evens. They will want a replacement for Ferris
I think Jan will get in comfortably enough, behind Wille and Quinlivan. Wouldnāt be at all surprised if OāDonnell didnāt get in. He didnāt get in the last time when FG did well compared to whatās expected and the Green lad will be pulling votes off him as well and the Soc Dems to a lesser extent. Heās also a nobody really. I havenāt heard of him since the last election