FF/FG have and always will have a massive rural dole vote. Lads who have been on the dole all their lives and now graduated to pensions voting for them all their lives.
Nobody apart from dolers vote for Sinn Fein in Tipp
That doesnāt tally with the figures so.
Tipp people must be incredibly stupid if Lowry romps home every year which means he must pull a huge doler vote.
Lowry is an independent. You were on about dolers voting for FG/FF a minute ago. Which is it?
Good try up to that, but 
Lowry is FG stock.
Lowry is effectively still running for Fine Gael. Has he ever voted against them. Obviously he was disgraced after the Moriarty tribunal but the deep state within Fine Gael will always remember him fondly from the time their accounts and finances were in a mess and he fixed them. He is at arms length now but would still have many ties.
He also supported Fianna Fail after the 2007 election
Yeah heās a hungry cunt.
But arenāt the unemployment figures at an all-time low. Shur thereās hardly anyone on the dole at all at all. This is what the Government says anyway. Theyād never lie, would they?
All politicians are wankers.
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Iām having a punt on Orla Leyden FF in Roscommon /East Galway. Independents Naughten and Fitzmaurice are nail-ons but the 3rd. seat is very much in play I feel.
The incumbent Eugene Murphy FF is no more than a bag of wind and while thereās never ending warfare in the FF ranks in Roscommon I feel Orla will prevail. Her father Terry has surely 40 years in the Oireachtas and will pull out all the stops to unseat the sitting man.
6/5 currently with PP.
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By all accounts he is very smart how he plays his voting in the dail . He is no daw
Catherine Connolly is as long as 1/2 to retain her seat in Galway West. I donāt see any way she loses.
Peter Kavanagh (Green) is 12/1 in Dublin Mid-West. Despite heavy competition for the last seat, that seems insane to me.
Paul Murphy is 11/8 in Dublin South-West. That canāt be right? Iād be very surprised if he loses. It makes no sense to me that the Green Party candidate can be 2/5 in Dublin South-West and 12/1 in Dublin Mid-West as the two constituencies are very similar demographically.
Christy Burke at 12/1 in Dublin Central is good value. Christy has been trying for years unsuccessfully but the constituency has always elected independents and with Maureen OāSullivan going, he could benefit. He wasnāt a million miles away last time in a three seater and that constituency has now gained a seat.
John Lyons at 10/1 in Dublin Bay North might have a shout, he could pick up a good whack from Tommy Broughanās old vote. Again he wasnāt a million miles away last time.
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The only example I have seen of odds against for the last seat in a constituency.
There are 4 names in the mix ā¦ who is the best bet?
Mark Wall would be my bet as outlined above.
Ryan will benefit from boundary changes but still has a poor enough profile. Berry will get buckets of votes in the Laois strip Iād say, heās also running as a rep for defence forces issues which will get votes in northern towns of the constituency. McLoughlin Healy is stronger than a 7/1 shot, sheāll give it a good rattle and could sneak it on transfers. Maher is a nice guy but canāt imagine he comes across well on the doors at all. If Doyle got elected that would be 3 out of 4 seats for FF, which I canāt see happening.
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Iām in this constituency. On this point, not one person from any political party has come to my door or anyone near me. Seems curious enough.
Was thinking about John Lyons myself. Got about 5 thousand votes last time. And broughan is out like you say. Heās the artane /Beaumont area I think. Heās gone out in the betting even after broughan is out though.
He comes across as a complete douchebag