6 would be a good day for them at this stage.
AOR, Kelly, Howlin, Smith & Nash should be comfortable enough, they are scratching around after that. Thereâs another couple in the running alright and theyâll surely manage to get one of them over the line
I think this will be a bit of a mad election, with prevailing winds for SF hampered the last few days, the Greens dying from exposure to light, FG & FF largely unpopular yet the older voters struggling to break free of them. Labour are a bucket of shite and the Soc Dems are making no impact.
PP have the lines as FF 54.5, FG 35.5, SF 28.5, Greens 10.5 and Labour 5.5.
I think itâll be something like FF 53, FG 38, SF 28, Greens 10 and Labour 7, Leaving 44 for Soc DEms, PBP, Independents etc.
I think FG & SF wonât be an option even if they wanted to at the end unless they add Greens etc.
We are heading for a very unstable government at the end no matter what happens, SF & FF will be the only plausible stable outcome.
There are no Labour certainties. Howlin is the closest thing but even he could be vulnerable if they have a very bad day.
Kelly, AOR, Nash, Smith, Sherlock are by no means certain though all in with a good chance but all could lose with the tide.
Jan OâSullivan and Joan Burton look gone.
After that, Wall in Kildare South is the best chance of the rest. Humphreys in DBS will hardly get in now. Cork North Central and Dublin South Central or South West look the only other even mildly plausible outside shots.
If FG get the hiding being forecast they wonât want to go near government and will say they want âa period of reflectionâ
Leo doesnât do reflection.
They have six chances by the odds. Shortall and Murphy will get in. Gannon likely. Then three possibles - OâTuathail Galway West, OâCallaghan DBN and Whitmore Wicklow.
The big question is, will the young people vote. Itâs a saturday and they are woker than ever, so they may actually turn up. If they do SF, Greens, Soc Dems should all have better days than expected
If Aor doesnât get in this time he may throw his hat at it.
he does if its a mirror
Strangely enough it could be an election where everyone is disappointed or underwhelmed
FG - Obviously the tide is going out. The only question is how much of a rearguard action they can put up.
FF - It hasnât been talked about much with all the focus on FG and SF but this hasnât been a great election for FF. The electorate has gone off FG but thereâs been little enthusiasm for FF. The polling numbers would suggest they still struggle in Dublin and with younger voters. Theyâll likely lead the next gov but with limited authority.
SF - A strong election result compared to what was expected. However, given all the talk of surge Iâd imagine quite a lot of new young SF voters will be disappointed to not see Mary Lou sweep to power.
Greens - Will do better than last time but their message has been unfocussed and weak. The fact that they are underperforming among young people is a shocker
Labour - Continued slide into irrelevance.
Social Democrats - No real breakout. What makes them different from Labour other than personalities?
Overall prediction: A weak FF-led gov which will stumble along like the last one, largely because it will be difficult to make any significant decisions.
Soc Dems and Labour should unite and call themselves the social democratic labour party, they are at nothing anyway. SDLP for everybody
Agreed. Theyâll need to be careful in the long run or their lunch will get eaten by SF.
Maybe LSD is catchier
SF going in to government is the best hope of revival for those parties
I was at an event about 5 years ago which had Fergus Finlay, Adrian Javanagh and some political correspondent as panelists and they reckoned then that Labour ( and Iâm lumping the Soc Dems in here too) would be subsumed by Sinn Fein in about 10-15 years either causing or as a result of a Sinn Fein split between an SDL side and a Republican side
A TFK style rebrand anyway.
âAre you Labour?â
âLabour, who is this Labour you talk about?â
The left is due a good split
Other, slight prediction. This could be an election to lose (like 2007).
A range of headwinds coming down the track, from Brexit to global economic bull run ending to corporate tax changes. On top of which, whoever arrives in has sold themselves on the notion that theyâre going to fix a shit load of issues quickly
A series of hard decisions ahead to either be made or dodged.
Iâd say SF will be happy enough to sit this one out and really swing for the fences next time.
I think theyâll cover that. I know theyâre not polling particularly well but I still think theyâll improve on last time.
Howlin, AOR, Nash, Smith, Kelly. I think Jan will get in personally. Wall & Sherlock have decent shots too.
(Iâve also backed Lettie McCarthy at 12/1 but thatâs a long shot, I agree.)
He has lovely clothes though. He must spend all his money on coats