Election Betting

[Tank]

Hey lads PP seem to have suddenly pulled the entire next government card. That will save me a fortune to be fair.

[Dziekanowski]

@Juhniallio

It shouldn’t have been him but there was literally nobody else. Sherlock was the only one under 60 and needed to step up but he is only interested in Cork, the weird cark cunt. Howlin took it under duress, delivered a couple of fine ard fheis speeches but sure who the fuck cared? At least now we can have a go.

Incredibly, I did - one of those speeches is genuinely a large part of the reason I gave Labour a number 2 vote this time.

[Julio_Geordio]

@Dziekanowski

a number 2

Can’t have been that good so

[carryharry]

@Juhniallio

…AoR and AK. AK is not only the most secure seatwise, he’s the most confrontational and outspoken and they need that. He needed to be put away when him and Burton were absolutely toxic. I’d imagine Ged will go for it and will have great support. It’s an open vote with all members getting one I believe.

My vote will be with AK47

[carryharry]

@BeTimberin

…month I think its fair to say my mind has changed. O’Callaghan and O’Brien are more likely now.Infact I wouldnt be surprised if we see a dramatic clearout of the FF front bench, not just those who lost seats. Crowe in Clare, O’Connor in Cork and Lawless in Kildare all seem younger and/or more capable.

If FF elect JOC or DOB as leader they are done. Those 2 dozy Dubs will not reach out to the rural FF voter who is keeping the shitshow alive.

[tallback]

@carryharry

@BeTimberin

…month I think its fair to say my mind has changed. O’Callaghan and O’Brien are more likely now.Infact I wouldnt be surprised if we see a dramatic clearout of the FF front bench, not just those who lost seats. Crowe in Clare, O’Connor in Cork and Lawless in Kildare all seem younger and/or more capable.

If FF elect JOC or DOB as leader they are done. Those 2 dozy Dubs will not reach out to the rural FF voter who is keeping the shitshow alive.

True. They’re getting cleaned in Dublin at the same time too as voters break left or right leaving FF in no-mans land.

Vote in Dublin was about 10% which put them about fourth I think after SF, FG and Greens

[Juhniallio]

@carryharry

@BeTimberin

…month I think its fair to say my mind has changed. O’Callaghan and O’Brien are more likely now.Infact I wouldnt be surprised if we see a dramatic clearout of the FF front bench, not just those who lost seats. Crowe in Clare, O’Connor in Cork and Lawless in Kildare all seem younger and/or more capable.

If FF elect JOC or DOB as leader they are done. Those 2 dozy Dubs will not reach out to the rural FF voter who is keeping the shitshow alive.

Very true(JoC is far from dozy though). But also the problem. They can’t get people elected in Dublin for love nor money. A pig shit thick roooral type won’t help that at all. And then the clock ticks on as their voters die off. They’re between a rock and a hard place with a hot poker up their holes. And my god do they deserve it.

[carryharry]

McGuinness is the way forward imo but does he need that hassle?

[Midshipman_Asha]

I don’t think he’s of that calibre, he certainly hasn’t the intellectual heft of JO’C and is more interested in Brand McGuinness. The succession path is laid out. In saying all that, I wouldn’t take away from his effectiveness as a constituency TD

[carryharry]

In any Dail Committee work he has chaired he has come across as good & fair in his role.

I’d imagine he would be an acceptable face to the Rural & Urban core support.
Can’t see them accepting a Michael McGrath figure in after MM.

[Midshipman_Asha]

You’re probably right, I forgot we are only talking about FF people here, I don’t really speak FF.
He was anti choice and anti marriage equality but tried to hedge with Andrew coming out in support of both.

[BeTimberin]

Im not so sure. Haughey had a strong enough relationship with the country as did Bertie and they need the gains in the capital.

If a left government goes in I think you’ll see a wing back right in 10 years.

[corner_back]

There’s also the factor that half the party can’t stand him. The Aylward brigade can’t abide him.
Like you said, his vote is down to his constituency work. My parents give him a vote having never voted FF.

[Midshipman_Asha]

I am really hoping the Aylward brigade disappear. The lines are clear, I live near Freshford now and the local cumann here are pure Aylwardites. We’ve had the spectre of a massive trailer board poster assaulting our eyes for weeks. They were the only canvassers I had they were sorry they called.
Paul Kavanagh of JJ Kavanaghs is the big FF head in North Kilkenny.

[gaillimhmick]

FF have always been strongest with a Dublin leader. O’Callaghan knows this and is now making his move.

[Spidey]

Step forward The Blanchurian Candidate - Jack Chambers

[Smark]

@Midshipman_Asha

He was anti choice and anti marriage equality but tried to hedge with Andrew coming out in support of both.

Why do you keep banging on about this still like it has any relevance when discussing a TD, whether it be their capability or chances of being elected? You’re obsessed with it the same as your alter ego Sid. I’m sorry to break it to you but a whole raft of the biggest cheerleaders for these campaigns have lost their Dail seats, while many of what you’d consider backward dinosaurs who had the principles to speak against these campaigns were re-elected. You’re losing credibility by constantly pivoting back to these statements as if those against them were penalised by the public, when the converse is true.

[Smark]

Speaking of future FF leaders I wouldn’t be surprised if your man McCauliffe the former Dublin mayor who was just elected will be lined up for a big future in the party. But it’s his first term so he is one for four years time or so.

[Julio_Geordio]

@Spidey

Step forward The Blanchurian Candidate - Jack Chambers

Blanchenstein cobbled together from parts of deceased FF politicians and brought to life with one purpose. To rule Ireland with an iron fist

[myboyblue]

@Midshipman_Asha is @Sid?

Well that fucks it all.