Election Betting

Sure everything about Niall Boylan and his ilk is a scam.

He’s a vulture who has been actively trying to disinform people for many years in the same way the very worst of Murdoch media does elsewhere in the world.

That has been successful, and his voters want to be scammed. They are only delighted to be scammed.

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Plato was right

Hes not the same price though. If you were a ballsy guy you’d throw 10grand on each and wait to see which one gets over the line.

Cuffe will be elected.

Yep , dutching is the way to go unless Party Man Niall Boylan gets in (at 1/4)

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It remains to be seen if there are enough votes to send a crackpot to europe on our behalf. Daly wasnt a crackpot per se 5 years ago. Daly and Boylan N are fighting for the same vote. Only 1 can go if even 1 so…

Regina, much as i despise her, is a shoo in you’d feel. FG is money and money votes. Dublin has lots of rich folk, like @Spidey, and she’s a fervent anti-green, like @Spidey.
Barry Andrews will get in I think. Cos he’s already been in and has put up a shit tonne of posters and has been on a heap of radio and tv etc. He comes across as capable. Even if FF support is dying.
While both of the above are true… its impossible to see ffg garnering 50%. obviously they wouldnt need it all but i dont think theyll transfer well and Andrews is probably the more vulnerable. Last time he polled decently but got fuckall transfers and ended up in 4th as a sub. I can see that again.
Lynn Boylan will have the same problem. They’ve lost their headbanger vote and their respectable middle age folk who want change vote(excluding respectable middle aged hardcore celtic fans, a Massive lobby…). She might get a decent bump off brid smyth but maybe not.
Lets say Daly and Boylan the Jimmy Saville lover manage one quota between them…
Then in a perfect world Cuffe and Aodhan get enough first preferences to stay competitive then ride the wave of decency through transfers to take out the doggy paddling SFF. In reality l, probably only one of them does… if one is miles ahead of the other on first preference then he’s in id imagine.

In short…
Dutch the motherfucking green/red wave of decency

Sorry he was yesterday when I looked.

Not on PP i dont think. I’ve looked everyday. Where did you see it?

Boylesports. Yesterday I think. Though now you’ve me doubting myself

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I’d have hit that in a flash

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I blame former poster @Sidney for this.

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Wow - and there was me chatting to my buddy and No.1 Roderick at the train station this morning as I took PUBLIC TRANSPORT to work.

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remember guys

  • Dublin (4 seats)
    • Lynn Boylan should, barring a very substantial polling error or an even more severe last-second collapse in the Sinn Féin vote, be comfortably elected.
    • Barry Andrews and Regina Doherty are in strong positions. There is precedent from last time for both FF and FG underperforming their polls.
    • The last seat is unclear. Daly’s transfer strength enduring is key for her, but as above this is not a guarantee.
    • Cuffe and Ó Ríordán have a chance if one transfers very strongly to the other.
    • Niall Boylan has a real shot here, particularly if his performance is closer to the Ireland Thinks poll than the B&A one, and if he accumulates a large amount of right-wing and/or anti-establishment transfers.
    • I haven’t discussed Bríd Smith (PBP) much yet, but if she manages to get ahead of Daly and stay there, she could be in the running, though transfers may be a challenge.
    • If there’s a massive SD polling error like last time, Gibney enters the mix, but it’s a long shot this happens, and even if it does, it’s still a challenge for her to hold 4th place

No denial of the fact that you’ve money coming out of your ears I see… fair play to you.

Who wrote that?

me

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(1) Irish Election Projections (@irishelectproj) / X

I’m not the fella taking the summer off AND in the market for a new jammer

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