Election Betting

[Juhniallio]

@Spidey

I’m not the fella taking the summer off

I sent an email earlier. And I’m working for a bit next monday afternoon.

[Spidey]

Well done Bill Cullen

[Bandage]

I’ll be voting Aodhán O’Riordáin #1 for the love of Dublin.

[Cheasty]

I think I’ll vote number 1 Brendan Ogle and then Cuffe/O’Riordain/Gibney/Lynn Boylan/assorted other non-fascists after that.

My preference would be for Aodhán to retain his Dáil seat.

[Juhniallio]

Whats the story with the public transport? You must be going to Shanahans or somewhere this evening?

[MountLeinster]

This is urban oireland mate clean yere own shit up first

[Little_Lord_Fauntleroy]

happily mate

[Kyle]

EU Elections: EU Parliament Scoreboard 2019-2024

[carryharry]

@Cheasty

Sure everything about Niall Boylan and his ilk is a scam.

He’s a vulture who has been actively trying to disinform people for many years

How well off is Boylan?

Would he be living in an affluent area & an owner of many properties etc?

Looking at some of Mick Wallace’s signs around the southern half of the country you’d wonder how he’s funding the graphic design etc as he sure as fuck didn’t come up with them himself.
They’re really professionally done but in my eyes are to arty for the chap hence you’d wonder who’s directing/funding him.

[Juhniallio]

His design is remarkably similar to Clare Daly’s…

[Special_Olympiakos]

Susan Sarandon released a video calling Wallace and Daly the best two meps in Europe, they are not short of support- ie money.

[Biff_Egan]

Yeh it’s a real mystery who is funding Mick and Clare

[Juhniallio]

@Juhniallio

Aodhan O Riordan is 9/4 lads. He should be evens. He’ll be scrapping like a motherfucker for the last seat and is very transfer friendly.
I think Clare daly will struggle and wouldnt be surprised if Lynn Boylan was squeezed out too. Either way, AOR will be in a 3 way fight for that last seat probably with a boylan or 2, Cuff and Daly.

Yariba yariba. Don’t say ye weren’t tellt lads.

[Batigol]

@Juhniallio

Yariba yariba. Don’t say ye weren’t tellt lads

Great shout lad. I didn’t end up backing Cuff(e) but kinda followed it as if I had. Thought he’d just edge AOR on transfers and then AOR’s transfers would have gotten him over the line.

Hope you’d a nice bit on it

[Juhniallio]

PP are starting to put up constituencies. Only 3 done so far but presumably the rest are on the way. We have a decent history here of picking out bolters. Donnelly and ROD were both beauts. Cc @RaymondCrotty @Copper_pipe Theres always value to be found because it’s such an irregular occurance and on the ground info can be crucial. Ive one or two id be interested in. Will stick em up when they put up the odds. Anyone got any fancies for a shock?

[Julio_Geordio]

There’ll be no shock in Limerick county. Be the same three again.

Limerick city is much more intriguing.

Be interesting to see what prices they have people.

Daly the independent narrowly missed out the last time and Quinlivan SF got a huge vote to top the poll off the Sinn Fein bounce. Can’t see him doing as well again and I think Daly would be well placed to benefit. They will be drawing from the same pool.

Dee Ryan FF is campaigning hard too. Have seen her around a good bit, former CEO of Limerick Chamber so would be popular with bidnesses you’d imagine. Has some momentum from the mayoral race too. Willie used to be able to carry in any auld spoon with him. He will walk in anyway. She is a decent candidate though and it’s definitely a seat FF will be targeting as winnable.

There’s a FG lad O’Donnell who’s done sweet fuck all since elected, from what I can make out, but they probably have enough FGers in Limerick to hold that seat regardless.
They are running two candidates though. Senator Maria Byrne ran last time as well and didn’t do much. She is a FG blue blood though. They’d want to be careful they don’t split the vote too much. Don’t see how they win two seats.

Brian Leddin currently holds the last seat. Seems alright in fairness. But he got in on the Green wave the last time. I would think he is very vulnerable.

His friend in SDs will take from his pool.

There was always a strong labour vote in Limerick but it seems to be all gone now. SF and Daly have taken it. They have a young lad running for them now Conor Sheehan since long time seat holder Jan O’Sullivan stepped away after losing her seat the last time. Don’t think he has the profile to get the labour vote back.

I would guess Willie, Quinlivan, a FGer and either Daly or Ryan for the last seat.

[Cheasty]

Don’t know what odds Clare Daly is in Dublin Central but I wouldn’t be surprised if she got in. Mary Fitzpatrick too.

One of Gannon or Hourigan will probably get in on the other’s transfers but I don’t think both will get in.

I wouldn’t have anybody down as a certainty in Dublin Central. I think Mary Lou will get in but I wouldn’t be 100% on it. Same with Pascal Donohue.

This for sure looks the most interesting constituency in the country.

[Spidey]

Coppinger should get back in Dublin west now there’s an extra seat and she’ll nibble at SF’s and Roderic’s numbers. Hammer anything above 1/2.
Lorna Nolan could pick up a seat for FF - with Leo gone Jack chambers could pick up a few of his transfers with FF strategising for her to pick up his no 2s.

Actually looking again Breda hanaphy would be more likely to get in for a second seat for SF even though Donnelly is plum useless but has massive numbers in the Blanch west area.

[Julio_Geordio]

What are you thinking overall.

Probably a three way split between SF FF FG with the Greens Labour Soc Dems and co scraping a 5 or 6 seats each and a ball of independents

I saw the headline in the indo today was FF and FG both courting labour for a coalition but I don’t see any way that Labour will have enough to be kingmakers

[ciarancareyshurlingarmy]

One to watch