Election Betting

Course not. It’s all about the acquisition and the use of power.

Capitalsim must die.

[QUOTE=“Raymond Crotty, post: 1086228, member: 25”]I enjoy it as a sport and there are some very good debates in UK politics with far more independent minded MPs than you get in Ireland for instance. Mo Mowlam, Ken Clarke, Charles Kennedy, Robin Cook, Glenda Jackson, Peter Hain, Caroline Lucas all examples of politicians in the UK who offer/offered very interesting opinions (though I might not agree with some of those opinions).
I don’t think it’s a choice between politics versus engineering or whatever. Not enough difference between Labour and Tories at present.
I’d put more of an emphasis on rounded education rather than engineering projects in my utopia mind.[/QUOTE]

I’d rather listen to Boris or Dennis Skinner myself.

As good a place as any to post this

Former Laois manager gets nod from SDLP predecessor to challenge SF seat

THE SDLP assembly member who contested the last two Westminster elections in Newry and Armagh has pledged his “full support” for All-Ireland winning footballer Justin McNulty.

Dominic Bradley was speaking as it was confirmed the former Armagh player and Laois manager has lodged nomination papers with the party ahead of a selection convention next week.

The Irish News revealed yesterday how the 39-year-old has been earmarked by the SDLP to attempt to overturn a Sinn Féin majority of 8,000-plus in the May election.

The party’s former deputy leader Seamus Mallon held the seat for almost 20 years until Mr Bradley lost out to Sinn Féin’s Conor Murphy in 2005.

However, the former regional development minister and sitting MP will not be standing this time, with Sinn Féin selecting MLA Mickey Brady in his place.

Speaking to The Irish News yesterday, Mr Bradley said the 2002 All-Ire-land winner was “in the race to win”.

“He’s a proven winner who’ll stop at nothing to win this seat for the SDLP,” he said.

“He has been a member of the SDLP for 10 years and his family is firmly rooted in the party.”

The selection of Mr McNulty, from Mullaghbawn, south Armagh, would make Newry and Armagh one of the most fascinating election battles.

In a radio interview last week, SDLP leader Alasdair McDonnell said the party was targeting the seat.

Mr Bradley declined to say how many other prospective candidates were being considered by the constituency association.

However, when asked what Mr McNulty had been doing since leaving his brother Enda’s Dublin-based sports performance consultancy, the MLA said he had been “concentrating fully on the campaign for the Westminster election”.

Mr Bradley said he “unreservedly and wholeheartedly” backed Mr McNulty.

“I pledge my full support to Justin – I have known him a long time and even taught him Irish at the summer school in Camlough,” he said.

“I would love to see him secure the candidacy and would be absolutely delighted if he won the seat for the SDLP.”

Sinn Fein declined to comment last night.

[QUOTE=“Raymond Crotty, post: 1086158, member: 25”]I have snp over 24.5 at 5/6 from bet couple of months back. Ashcroft polling has huge swing for them with Douglas Alexander in danger and Danny Alexander struggling too. I don’t think swing will be as big as poll suggests with scare tactics of vote SNP get Tory working to limited extent. Now going to back under 34.5 and hope it ends up between the two.

Lib Dems under 27.5 is fantastic bet at 5/6. I’ve stuck the savings on it[/QUOTE]
That Lib Dem spread is down to 24.5 so I’ve put same stake as original on in hope that they get 25, 26 or 27 seats. Odds are 5/6 so lose a small enough percentage if it does not happen. If it does then hit jackpot.

I’ve done same with snp bet. Originally got them at over 20.5 and over 24.5. Spread is now 40.5 so have put same amount on less than 40.5 as i have with other two bets. More likely bet to land big on than the Lib Dem one.

Signs that Labour are moving to the left in order to counteract SNP. Virtually all of the pro independence vote has stayed with SNP though while Union vote has splintered. Party with largest seat is most likely going to get first call to form a government though and this could perhaps dissuade a percentage of old Labour voters in jumping ship.

Lot of the marginals that Lib Dems currently hold are with Tories and Ashcroft’s polling suggests they are doing better locally than national polls are indicating.

The Tories will walk this.

[QUOTE=“Raymond Crotty, post: 1087123, member: 25”]Signs that Labour are moving to the left in order to counteract SNP. Virtually all of the pro independence vote has stayed with SNP though while Union vote has splintered. Party with largest seat is most likely going to get first call to form a government though and this could perhaps dissuade a percentage of old Labour voters in jumping ship.

Lot of the marginals that Lib Dems currently hold are with Tories and Ashcroft’s polling suggests they are doing better locally than national polls are indicating.[/QUOTE]

What constituencies are the Green seats coming from @Raymond Crotty ?

Brighton Pavilion
Bristol West
Norwich South

No they won’t

[QUOTE=“Raymond Crotty, post: 1062510, member: 25”]Greens are polling very well of late. They will be squeezed nearer to May one would think but if they can focus their efforts the bet should win.

SNP over 24.5 seats is 5/6 with paddypower. 10 points.
Guardian/ICM poll had yet more very encouraging news for SNP yesterday. Policy wise Murphy was bad choice for Labour. He is strong campaigner and style could be effective in debates but all he can hope for is to halt the slide. With Sturgeon as SNP leader they have moved further to the left of Labour. Labour now look Tory light in Scotland which isn’t going to work there. SNP membership approaching 100,000. I don’t expect SNP to get the 45 seats that polls are predicting but they should get well in excess of 25. Considering SNP currently have 20 seats in Westminster paddpower have this market way off. They consistently misread election betting as is plain to see from this thread.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/26/labour-bloodbath-scotland-general-election-2015-snp-westminster[/QUOTE]
Winner

[QUOTE=“Raymond Crotty, post: 1064613, member: 25”]Greens 2 seats or more in May election.
10/1 with William Hill
5 points. Ridiculous odds. Greens have never polled higher. They are strong in half dozen England constituencies and in with excellent chance in Norwich in particular. Lucas will hold Brighton. Never been a higher disillusionment with Labour and Tories. Lib Dems are in coalition and will be punished for their role in government.[/QUOTE]
Loser

[QUOTE=“Raymond Crotty, post: 1087122, member: 25”]That Lib Dem spread is down to 24.5 so I’ve put same stake as original on in hope that they get 25, 26 or 27 seats. Odds are 5/6 so lose a small enough percentage if it does not happen. If it does then hit jackpot.

I’ve done same with snp bet. Originally got them at over 20.5 and over 24.5. Spread is now 40.5 so have put same amount on less than 40.5 as i have with other two bets. More likely bet to land big on than the Lib Dem one.[/QUOTE]
Ouch

This thread needs a new guru. I nominate me. I accept. The king is dead, long live the king

i still support Crotty

it cant always be summer

[QUOTE=“The Selfish Giant, post: 1136349, member: 80”]i still support Crotty

it cant always be summer[/QUOTE]

He’s Red Rover mate.

Big casualties of Brit election:
Clegg
Balls
Crotty

[QUOTE=“croppy, post: 1136420, member: 230”]Big casualties of Brit election:
Clegg
Balls
Crotty[/QUOTE]

The Irish count system.

@Fagan_ODowd

15/8 on Halligan to top the poll in Waterford?

Looks likely to me.